Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T17:36:11.206Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

A pioneer of a new monetary policy? Sweden's price-level targeting of the 1930s revisited

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2009

TOBIAS STRAUMANN
Affiliation:
University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Winterthurerstrasse 30 Zurich, Zurich 8006, Switzerland, [email protected]
ULRICH WOITEK
Affiliation:
University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Winterthurerstrasse 30 Zurich, Zurich 8006, Switzerland, [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

The article re-examines Sweden's price-level targeting during the 1930s which is regarded as a precursor of today's inflation targeting. According to conventional wisdom, the Riksbank was the first central bank to adopt price-level targeting, although in practice giving priority to exchange-rate stabilisation. Based on Bayesian econometric techniques and the evaluation of new archival sources, we come to the conclusion that defending a fixed exchange rate is hard to reconcile with the claim of adopting price-level targeting. This finding has implications for the prevailing view of the 1930s as a decade of great policy innovations.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © European Historical Economics Society 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Berg, C. and Jonung, L. (1999). Pioneering price level targeting: the Swedish experience 1931–37. Journal of Monetary Economics 43, pp. 525–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernanke, B., Laubach, Th., Mishkin, F. and Posen, A. (1999). Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Calvo, G. and Reinhart, C. (2002). Fear of floating. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, pp. 379408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carter, C. K. and Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika 81, pp. 541–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cogley, T. and Sargent, T. J. (2005). Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics 8, pp. 262302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davidson, R. and MacKinnon, J. G. (1993). Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, B. (1992). Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Feinstein, C., Toniolo, G. and Temin, P. (1997). The European Economy between the Wars. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Fisher, I. (1935). Stabilized Money. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Fregert, K. and Jonung, L. (2004). Deflation dynamics in Sweden: perceptions, expectations, and adjustment during the deflations of 1921–1923 and 1931–1933. In Burdekin, R. and Siklos, P. (eds.), Deflation: Current and Historical Perspectives. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 91128.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geweke, J. (2005). Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gourevitch, P. (1986). Politics in Hard Times: Comparative Responses to International Economic Crises. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Harvey, A. C. (1992). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Haavisto, T. and Jonung, L. (1999). Central banking in Sweden and Finland in the twentieth century. In Holtfrerich, C.-L. et al. . (eds.), The Emergence of Modern Central Banking from 1918 to the Present. Aldershot: Ashgate, pp. 111–43.Google Scholar
Jacquier, E., Polson, N. G. and Rossi, P. E. (1994). Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, pp. 371–89.Google Scholar
Jonung, L. (1979a). Knut Wicksell's norm of price stabilization and Swedish monetary policy in the 1930s. Journal of Monetary Economics 5, pp. 459–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jonung, L. (1979b). Cassel, Davidson and Heckscher on Swedish monetary policy: a confidential report to the Riksbank in 1931. Economy and History 22, pp. 85101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jonung, L. (1991) (ed.). The Stockholm School of Economics Revisited. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kjellström, E. (1934). Managed Money: The Experience of Sweden. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kock, K. (1931). Hur Sverige tvingades att överge guldmyntfoten. In Myrdal, G. (ed.), Sveriges väg genom penningkrisen. Stockholm: Bokförlaget Natur och Kultur, pp. 141–60.Google Scholar
Kock, K. (1933). Paper currency and monetary policy in Sweden. In Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, October 20th, 1933. London: Allen and Unwin, pp. 343–56.Google Scholar
Koop, G. (2003). Bayesian Econometrics. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Lester, R. (1939). Monetary Experiments: Early American and Recent Scandinavian. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Levy-Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (2005). Classifying exchange rate regimes: deeds vs. words. European Economic Review 49, pp. 1603–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindahl, E. (1936). Der Übergang zur Papierwährung in Schweden 1931. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 43, pp. 8296.Google Scholar
Montgomery, A. (1938). How Sweden Overcame the Depression 1930–1933. Stockholm: Alb. Bonniers Boktryckerei.Google Scholar
Notermans, T. (2000). Money, Markets, and the State: Social Democratic Policies since 1918. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ohlin, B. (1932). Swedens monetary policy. Svenska Handelsbanken Index 7, pp. 268–77.Google Scholar
Primiceri, G. E. (2005). Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy. Review of Economic Studies 72, pp. 821–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2004). The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: a reinterpretation. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119, pp. 148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Straumann, T. (2006). Fixed ideas: small states and exchange rate regimes in twentieth-century Europe. Habilitation thesis, University of Zurich.Google Scholar
Svensson, L. E. O. (1995). The Swedish experience of an inflation target. NBER Working Paper 4985.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sveriges, Riksbank (1929–39). Annual Reports. Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank.Google Scholar
Thomas, B. (1936). Monetary Policy and Crises. London: Routledge and Sons.Google Scholar
Wigforss, E. (1951). Minnen, vol. II: 1914–1932. Stockholm: Tides Förlag.Google Scholar