Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T17:47:57.643Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Demand and supply factors in the fertility transition: a county-level analysis of age-specific marital fertility in Sweden, 1880–1930

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2009

MARTIN DRIBE
MARTIN DRIBE*
Affiliation:
Department of Economic History and Center for Economic Demography, Lund University, PO Box 7083, 220 07 Lund, Sweden, [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

This article studies the importance of demand and supply factors in the Swedish fertility transition using county-level data and panel regressions. Fertility started to decline around 1880 when marital fertility began a continuous decline. A gradual diffusion of parity-specific control was important in this process. The fertility of the oldest age groups declined fastest, even though the decline started in all age groups over 25 at about the same time. This development was connected to broader socioeconomic and demographic processes of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, such as mortality decline, urbanisation, industrialisation and expansion of education.

Type
Research Article
Information
European Review of Economic History , Volume 13 , Issue 1 , April 2009 , pp. 65 - 94
Copyright
Copyright © European Historical Economics Society 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alter, G. (1992). Theories of fertility decline: a nonspecialist's guide to the current debate. In Gillis, J. R., Tilly, L. A. and Levine, D. (eds.), The European Experience of Declining Fertility. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Bagge, G. (1933). Wages in Sweden 1860–1930, Part One. London: P. S. King & Sons.Google Scholar
Bean, L. L., Mineau, G. P. and Anderton, D. L. (1990). Fertility Change on the American Frontier. Adaptation and Innovation. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Becker, G. S. (1991). A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bengtsson, T. and Dribe, M. (2006). Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: southern Sweden 1766–1865. Demography 43, pp. 727–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Broström, G. (1985). Practical aspects on the estimations of the parameters in Coale's model for marital fertility. Demography 22, pp. 625–31.Google Scholar
Brown, J. C. and Guinnane, T. W. (2002). Fertility transition in a rural, Catholic population: Bavaria, 1880–1910. Population Studies 56, pp. 35–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, J. C. and Guinnane, T. W. (2007). Regions and time in the European fertility transition: problems in the Princeton project's statistical methodology. Economic History Review 60, pp. 574–95.Google Scholar
Carlsson, G. (1966). The decline of fertility: innovation or adjustment process. Population Studies 20, pp. 149–74.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cleland, J. R. and Wilson, C. (1987). Demand theories of the fertility transition: an iconoclastic view. Population Studies 41, pp. 5–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coale, A. J. (1973). The demographic transition reconsidered. International Population Conference, Liège, 1973, vol. 1. Liège: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.Google Scholar
Coale, A. J. and Trussell, J. T. (1974). Model fertility schedules: variations in the age schedule of childbearing in human populations. Population Index 40, pp. 185–258.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Coale, A. J. and Trussell, J. T. (1978). Technical note: finding the two parameters that specify a model schedule of marital fertility. Population Index 44, pp. 203–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coale, A. J. and Watkins, S. C. (eds.) (1986). The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Crafts, N. F. R. (1984). A time series study of fertility in England and Wales, 1877–1938. Journal of European Economic History 13, pp. 571–90.Google ScholarPubMed
Crafts, N. F. R. (1989). Duration of marriage, fertility and women's employment opportunities in England and Wales in 1911. Population Studies 43, pp. 325–35.Google Scholar
Cunningham, H. and Viazzo, P. P. (eds.) (1996). Child Labour in Historical Perspective – 1880–1895 – Case Studies from Europe, Japan and Colombia. Florence: UNICEF.Google Scholar
David, P. A. and Mroz, T. A. (1989). Evidence of fertility regulation among rural French villagers, 1749–1789: a sequential econometric model of birth-spacing behaviour (Part 2). European Journal of Population 5, pp. 173–206.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
David, P. A. and Sanderson, W. C. (1986). Rudimentary contraceptive methods and the American transition to marital fertility control, 1855–1915. In Engerman, S. L. and Gallman, R. E. (eds.), Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Derosas, R. and van Poppel, F. (eds.) (2006). Religion and the Decline of Fertility in the Western World. Dordrecht: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Easterlin, R. A. and Crimmins, E. C. (1985). The Fertility Revolution: A Supply Demand Analysis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Edin, K. A. and Hutchinson, E. P. (1935). Studies of Differential Fertility in Sweden. London: P. S. King & Sons.Google Scholar
Friedlander, D. (1969). Demographic responses and population change. Demography 6, pp. 359–81.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galloway, P. R., Hammel, E. A. and Lee, R. D. (1994). Fertility decline in Prussia, 1875–1910: a pooled cross-section time series analysis. Population Studies 48, pp. 135–58.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galloway, P. R., Lee, R. D. and Hammel, E. A. (1998a). Urban versus rural: fertility decline in the cities and rural districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910. European Journal of Population 14, pp. 209–64.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galloway, P. R., Lee, R. D. and Hammel, E. A. (1998b). Infant mortality and the fertility transition: macro evidence from Europe and new findings from Prussia. In Montgomery, M. R. and Cohen, B. (eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality and Reproductive Change. Washington, DC: National Research Council.Google Scholar
Henry, L. (1961). Some data on natural fertility. Eugenics Quarterly 8, pp. 81–91.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hirschman, C. (1994). Why fertility changes. Annual Review of Sociology 20, pp. 203–33.Google Scholar
Hofsten, E. and Lundström, H. (1976). Swedish Population History: Main Trends from 1750 to 1970. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden.Google Scholar
Isidorsson, T. (2002). Striden om tiden. Arbetstidens utveckling under 100 år i ett internationellt perspektiv [Time wars. Time development in Sweden in a centennial and international perspective]. PhD diss., University of Göteborg, Sweden.Google Scholar
Jörberg, L. (1972). A History of Prices in Sweden 1732–1914. Lund, Sweden: Gleerups.Google Scholar
Knodel, J. (1977). Family limitation and the fertility transition: evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia. Population Studies 31, pp. 219–49.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Knodel, J. and van de Walle, E. (1979). Lessons from the past: policy implications of historical fertility studies. Population and Development Review 5, pp. 217–45.Google Scholar
Larsson, M. (1984). Fruktsamhetsmönster, produktionsstruktur och sekularisering – en jämförelse mellan 69 härader vid 1800-talets slut [Fertility patterns, production structure and secularization – a comparison of 69 districts at the end of the nineteenth century]. PhD diss., University of Stockholm, Sweden.Google Scholar
Lee, R. D. (2003a). The demographic transition: three centuries of fundamental change. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17, pp. 167–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, R. D. (2003b). Demographic change, welfare, and intergenerational transfers: a global overview. Genus 59, pp. 43–70.Google Scholar
Lesthaeghe, R. J. (1977). The Decline of Belgian Fertility, 1800–1870. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Levin, H. (1994). Masken uti rosen. Nymalthusianism och födelsekontroll i Sverige 1880–1910. Propaganda och motstånd [The Maggot in the Rose. Neo-Malthusianism and Birth Control in Sweden from 1880 to 1910. Propaganda and Resistance]. Stockholm: Symposion.Google Scholar
Lockridge, K. A. (1984). The Fertility Transition in Sweden: A Preliminary Look at Smaller Geographic Units, 1855–1890. Umeå, Sweden: Demographic Data Base, Umeå University.Google Scholar
Lundh, C. (2003). Den regionala befolkningsstatistiken i Tabellverket – en databeskrivning. [The regional population statistics in the Tabular Commission – a description of the data]. Lund Papers in Economic History 91, Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden.Google Scholar
Lundh, C. et al. (2004). Wage Formation, Labour Market Institutions and Economic Transformation in Sweden 1860–2000. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International.Google Scholar
Mason, K. O. (1997). Explaining fertility transitions. Demography 34, pp. 443–54.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mincer, J. (1963). Market prices, opportunity costs, and income effects. In Christ, C. F. et al. . (eds.), Measurement in Economics: Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics in Memory of Yehuda Grunfeld. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Mosher, W. D. (1980). Demographic responses and demographic transitions: a case study of Sweden. Demography 17, pp. 395–412.Google Scholar
Mosk, C. (1983). Patriarchy and Fertility: Japan and Sweden, 1880–1960. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Myrdal, G. (1933). The Cost of Living in Sweden 1830–1930. London: P. S. King & Sons.Google Scholar
Ó Gráda, C. and O'Rourke, K. H. (1997). Migration as a disaster relief: lessons from the great Irish famine. European Review of Economic History 1, pp. 3–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olsson, L. (1980). Då barn var lönsamma. Om arbetsdelning, barnarbete och teknologiska förändringar i några svenska industrier under 1800- och början av 1900-talet [When Children were Profitable. Division of Labour, Child Labour and Technological Change in some Swedish Industries during the 19th and early 20th Centuries]. Stockholm: Tiden.Google Scholar
Page, H. J. (1977). Patterns underlying fertility schedules: a decomposition by both age and marriage duration. Population Studies 30, pp. 85–106.Google Scholar
Pollack, R. A. and Watkins, S. C. (1993). Cultural and economic approaches to fertility: proper marriage or mésalliance? Population and Development Review 19, pp. 467–96.Google Scholar
Reher, D. (1999). Back to the basics: mortality and fertility interactions during the demographic transition. Continuity and Change 14, pp. 9–31.Google Scholar
Richards, T. (1977). Fertility decline in Germany: an econometric appraisal. Population Studies 31, pp. 537–53.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schön, L. (2000). En modern svensk ekonomisk historia: tillväxt genom omvandling under två sekel [A Modern Swedish Economic History: Growth through Change during Two Centuries]. Stockholm: SNS.Google Scholar
Schultz, T. P. (1985). Changing world prices, women's wages, and the fertility transition: Sweden, 1860–1910. Journal of Political Economy 93, pp. 1126–54.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schultz, T. P. (2004). Fertility transition: economic explanations. In Smelser, N. J. and Baltes, P. B. (eds.), International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science Ltd.Google Scholar
Stanfors, M. (2007). Mellan arbete och familj: ett dilemma för kvinnor i 1900-talets Sverige [Between Work and Family: A Dilemma for Women in 20th Century Sweden]. Stockholm: SNS.Google Scholar
Statistics Sweden (1974). Pupils in Compulsory Schools in Sweden 1847–1962. Promemorier från SCB 1974:5. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden.Google Scholar
Statistics Sweden (1999). Befolkningsutvecklingen under 250 år. Historisk statistik för Sverige [Population Development in Sweden in a 250-year Perspective. Swedish Historical Statistics]. Demografiska rapporter 1999:2. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden.Google Scholar
Sundbärg, G. (1907). Bevölkerungsstatistik Schwedens 1750–1900. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden, 1970.Google Scholar
Szreter, S. (1996). Fertility, Class and Gender in Britain 1860–1940. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Teitelbaum, M. S. (1984). The British Fertility Decline: Demographic Transition in the Crucible of the Industrial Revolution. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Van Bavel, J. (2004). Deliberate birth spacing before the fertility transition in Europe: evidence from nineteenth-century Belgium. Population Studies 58, pp. 95–107.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Van Bavel, J. and Kok, J. (2004). Birth spacing in the Netherlands: the effects of family composition, occupation and religion on birth intervals, 1820–1885. European Journal of Population 20, pp. 119–40.Google Scholar
Van de Walle, F. (1986). Infant mortality and the European demographic transition. In Coale, A. J. and Watkins, S. C. (eds.), The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Wahl, J. B. (1992). Trading quantity for quality: explaining the decline in American fertility in the nineteenth century. In Goldin, C. and Rockoff, H. (eds.), Strategic Factors in Nineteenth Century American Economic History. A Volume to Honor Robert W. Fogel. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Wicksell, S. D. (1918). Till frågan om den äktenskapliga fruktsamhetens regionala fördelning i Sverige [On the question about the regional distribution of marital fertility in Sweden]. Ekonomisk tidskrift 20, pp. 227–62.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, M. (1973). An econometric analysis of fertility in Sweden, 1870–1965. Econometrica 41, pp. 633–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilson, C., Oeppen, J. and Pardoe, M. (1988). What is natural fertility? The modelling of a concept. Population Index 54, pp. 4–20.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wohlin, N. (1915). Den äktenskapliga fruktsamhetens tillbakagång på Gotland [The Decline of Marital Fertility in Gotland]. Stockholm. Nordiska bokhandeln.Google Scholar
Woods, R. (2000). The Demography of Victorian England and Wales. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, J. M. (2006). Introductory Econometrics. A Modern Approach. 3rd edition. Mason, OH: Thomson South-Western.Google Scholar