The forecasting of chronical forms of PTSD

Abstract

Under determined conditions acute reactions on stress are transformed in chronical forms of PTSD. The meaning of persisting studies was searching for significant factors of prognosis, defining shaping chronical forms of PTSD. We have investigated 84 military men, beside which in condition of the combat situation acute psychogenic disorders were developed. The average age of respondents was 18,6±0,6 years. 34,1% of respondents through 2-4 years after taking acute psychogenic disorders, appeared in condition of the combat situation, are revealed signs posttraumatic stressful disorders with expressed social desadaptation. At acute period of psychogenic disorders these respondents distinguished the more high factors of emotional disorders, depression; the trend to displacing factor, causing anxiety; the low self-evaluation. These are larval particularities possible to consider as predestine factors of chronical PTSD.

On base of psychometric signs, characterizing acute period of the psychic trauma, a mathematical model was built, allowing forecast its remote upshots.

By means of given set signs to manage to realize the forecast remote consequence (2-4 years) stressful disorders of combat situation with degree of validity of the recognition 73-85% - for favorable upshot, 71-79% - for events with shaping of chronical forms of PTSD.