Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T22:57:17.874Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A changing economic vote in Western Europe? Long-term vs. short-term forces

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 November 2018

Ruth Dassonneville  and
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Ruth Dassonneville*
Affiliation:
Département de science politique, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
*
*E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Considerable research shows the presence of an economic vote, with governments rewarded or punished by voters, depending on the state of the economy. But how stable is this economic vote? A current argument holds its effect has increased over time, because of weakening long-term social and political forces. Under these conditions, short-term forces, foremostly the economic issue, can come to the fore. A counter-argument, however, sees the economic vote effect in decline, due to globalization. Against these rival hypotheses rests the status-quo argument: the economic vote effect remains unchanged. To test these claims, we estimate carefully specified models of the incumbent vote, at both the individual and aggregate levels. Western European elections provide the data, with particular attention to Denmark, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Perhaps surprisingly, we find the economic vote to be stable over time, a ‘standing decision’ rule that voters follow in national elections.

Keywords

economic votingdealignmentelectionsEurope
Type
Research Article
Information
European Political Science Review , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , February 2019 , pp. 91 - 108
Copyright
© European Consortium for Political Research 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, CHBartels, LM (2016) Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government, Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Alvarez, RMNagler, J (1998) When politics and models collide: estimating models of multiparty elections. American Journal of Political Science 42(1), 55–96.Google Scholar
Anderson, C (1995) Blaming the Government. Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies, New York: M.E. Sharpe.Google Scholar
Anderson, C (2000) Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective. Electoral Studies 19(2), 151–170.Google Scholar
Anderson, C (2007) The end of economic voting? Contingency dilemmas and the limits of democratic accountability. Annual Review of Political Science 10: 271–296.Google Scholar
Beck, NKatz, J (1995) What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. American Political Science Review 89(3), 634–647.Google Scholar
Bélanger, ÉGélineau, F (2010) Does perceived competence matter? Political parties and economic voting in Canadian federal elections. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 20(1), 83–101.Google Scholar
Bellucci, P, Costa Lobo, MLewis-Beck, M (2012) Economic crisis and elections: the European periphery. Electoral Studies 31(3), 469–471.Google Scholar
Bellucci, PLewis-Beck, M (2011) A stable popularity function? Cross-national analysis. European Journal of Political Research 50(2), 190–211.Google Scholar
Berry, W (1993) Understanding Regression Assumptions, London: Sage.Google Scholar
Campbell, A, Converse, P, Miller, WStokes, D (1960) The American Voter, New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Clark, TLipset, S (1991) Are social classes dying? International Sociology 6(4), 397–410.Google Scholar
Costa Lobo, M (2006) Short-term voting determinants in a young democracy: leader effects in Portugal in the 2002 legislative elections. Electoral Studies 25(2), 270–286.Google Scholar
Costa Lobo, MLewis-Beck, M (2012) The integration hypothesis: how the European Union shapes economic voting. Electoral Studies 31(3), 522–528.Google Scholar
Crewe, IDenver, D (1985) Electoral Change in Western Democracies: Patterns and Sources of Electoral Volatility, London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Dalton, RWattenberg, M (2002) Parties Without Partisans. Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, RLewis-Beck, M (2014a) Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes: a national European pool. Acta Politica 49(4), 372–394.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, RLewis-Beck, M (2014b) Special issue: the economic voter and economic crisis. Acta Politica 49(4), 369–491.Google Scholar
Dassonneville, RLewis-Beck, M (2017) Rules, institutions and the economic vote: clarifying clarity of responsibility. West European Politics 40(3), 534–559.Google Scholar
Debus, M, Stegmaier, MTosun, J (2014) Economic voting under coalition governments: evidence from Germany. Political Science Research and Methods 2(1), 49–67.Google Scholar
De Vries, C, Hobolt, STilley, J (2018) Facing up to the facts: what causes economic perceptions. Electoral Studies 51: 115–122.Google Scholar
Döring, HManow, P (2012) Parliament and Government Composition Database (ParlGov): an infrastructure for empirical information on parties, elections and governments in modern democracies, Version 12/10-15 October 2012. Retrieved from http://www.parlgov.org/static/static-2014/stable/index.htmlGoogle Scholar
Drukker, D (2003) Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. Stata Journal 3(2), 168–177.Google Scholar
Duch, R (2007) Comparative studies of the economy and the vote. In Carles Boix and Susan Stokes eds. Encyclopedia of Comparative Politics, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Duch, RStevenson, R (2010) The global economy, competency, and the economic vote. Journal of Politics 72(1), 105–123.Google Scholar
Duch, RStevenson, R (2006) Assessing the magnitude of the economic vote over time and across nations. Electoral Studies 25(3), 528–547.Google Scholar
Duch, RStevenson, R (2008) The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Escobar-Lemmon, MWhitten, G (2011) Special symposium on the politics of economic crisis. Electoral Studies 30(3), 387–483.Google Scholar
Evans, GTilley, J (2012) The depoliticization of inequality and redistribution: explaining the decline of class voting. Journal of Politics 74(4), 963–976.Google Scholar
Evans, GPickup, M (2010) Reversing the causal arrow: the political conditioning of economic perceptions in the 2000-2004 US presidential election cycle. Journal of Politics 74(4), 1236–1251.Google Scholar
Fernández-Albertos, J (2006) Does internationalisation blur responsibility? Economic voting and economic openness in 15 European countries. West European Politics 29(1), 28–46.Google Scholar
Fieldhouse, E, Green, J, Evans, G, Mellon, J, Prosser, C, Schmitt, Hvan der Eijk, C (2018) Electoral Shocks. The Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Franklin, M, Mackie, TValen, H (2009) Electoral Change. Responses to Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries, Colchester: ECPR Press.Google Scholar
Hellwig, T (2014) Globalization and Mass Politics: Retaining the Room to Maneuver, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hellwig, TSamuels, D (2007) Voting in open economies. The electoral consequences of globalization. Comparative Political Studies 40(3), 283–306.Google Scholar
ICORE (2005) The European Voter Database. Continuity Files of National Election Studies in Denmark, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden. GESIS Data Archive, Cologne. ZA3911. Data file version 1.0.0. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.4232/1.3911Google Scholar
Jansen, G, De Graaf, NNeed, A (2011) Class voting, social changes and political changes in the Netherlands 1971–2006. Electoral Studies 30(3), 510–524.Google Scholar
Jansen, G, Evans, GDe Graaf, N (2013) Class voting and left-right party positions: a comparative study of 15 western democracies, 1960-2005. Social Science Research 42(2), 376–400.Google Scholar
Kayser, M (2007) How domestic is domestic politics? Globalization and elections. Annual Review of Political Science 10: 341–362.Google Scholar
Kayser, MWlezien, C (2011) Performance pressure: patterns of partisanship and the economic vote. European Journal of Political Research 50(3), 365–394.Google Scholar
Kennedy, P (2008) A Guide to Modern Econometrics, Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.Google Scholar
Key, V (1966) The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting 1936-1960, Cambridge: Belknap Press.Google Scholar
Kmenta, J (1997) Elements of Econometrics, 2nd edn, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Kosmidis, SXezonakis, G (2010) The undecided voters and the economy: campaign heterogeneity in the 2005 British general election. Electoral Studies 29(4), 604–616.Google Scholar
Kramer, G (1983) The ecological fallacy revisited: aggregate- versus individual-level findings on economics and elections, and sociotropic voting. American Political Science Review 77(1), 92–111.Google Scholar
Larsen, M (2016) Economic Conditions Affect Support for Prime Minister Parties in Scandinavia. Scandinavian Political Studies 39(3), 226–241.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M (1988) Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M, Jacoby, W, Norpoth, HWeisberg, H (2008) The American Voter Revisited, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, M, Nadeau, RElias, A (2008) Economics, party and the vote: causality issues and panel data. American Journal of Political Science 52(1), 84–95.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, MPaldam, M (2000) Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral Studies 19(2), 113–121.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, MStegmaier, M (2007) Economic models of voting. In RJ Dalton and H-D Klingemann eds. The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 518–537.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, MStegmaier, M (2013) The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years. Public Choice 157(3-4), 367–385.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, MWhitten, G (2013) editors. Economics and elections: effects deep and wide.” Special Issue. Electoral Studies 32(3), 391–562.Google Scholar
Lipset, SRokkan, S (1967) Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives, New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Listhaug, O (2005) Retrospective voting. In Jacques Thomassen ed. The European Voter: A Comparative Study of Modern Democracies, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 213–234.Google Scholar
Mackie, TRose, R (1991) The International Almanac of Electoral History, London: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Mair, P (2006) Party system change. In RS Katz and WJ Crotty eds. Handbook of Party Politics, Thousand Oaks: Sage, 63–73.Google Scholar
Marsh, MTilley, J (2010) The attribution of credit and blame to governments and its impact on the vote choice. British Journal of Political Science 40(1), 115–134.Google Scholar
Nadeau, R, Lewis-Beck, MBélanger, É. (2013) Economics and elections revisited. Comparative Political Studies 46(5), 551–573.Google Scholar
Nordsieck, W (2018) Parties and elections in Europe. Retrieved May 2018 from http://www.parties-and-elections.eu.Google Scholar
Pickup, MEvans, G (2013) Addressing the endogeneity of economic evaluations in models of political choice. Public Opinion Quarterly 77(3), 735–754.Google Scholar
Powell, BWhitten, G (1993) A cross-national analysis of economic voting : taking account of the political context. American Journal of Political Science 37(2), 391–414.Google Scholar
Rose, RMcAllister, I (1986) Voters Begin to Choose: From Closed Class to Open Elections in Britain, Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
Stevenson, RDuch, R (2013) The meaning and use of subjective perceptions in studies of economic voting. Electoral Studies 32(2), 305–320.Google Scholar
The Conference Board (2018) Total Economy Database: Real Gross Domestic Product. Retrieved May 2018 from http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase.Google Scholar
Thomassen, J (2005) The European Voter. A Comparative Study Of Modern Democracies, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
van der Brug, W (2010) Structural and ideological voting in age cohorts. West European Politics 33(3), 586–607.Google Scholar
van der Brug, WFranklin, M (2018) Generational replacement: engine of electoral change. In J Fisher et al. (eds), Routledge Handbook of Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour, London: Routledge.Google Scholar
van der Brug, W, Hobolt, SDe Vreese, C (2009) Religion and party choice in Europe. West European Politics 32(6), 1266–1283.Google Scholar
van der Brug, W, van der Eijk, CFranklin, M (2007) The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
van der Eijk, C, Franklin, M, Demant, Fvan der Brug, W (2007) The endogeneous economy: ‘real’ economic conditions, subjective economic evaluations and government support. Acta Politica 42(1), 1–22.Google Scholar
van der Waal, J, Achterberg, PHoutman, D (2007) Class is not dead it has been buried alive: class voting and cultural voting in postwar western societies (1956-1990). Politics & Society 35(3), 403–426.Google Scholar
Walczak, A, van der Brug, WDe Vries, C (2012) Long- and short-term determinants of party preferences: inter-generational differences in Western and East Central Europe. Electoral Studies 31(2), 273–284.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Dassonneville and Lewis-Beck supplementary material

Dassonneville and Lewis-Beck supplementary material 1

Download Dassonneville and Lewis-Beck supplementary material(File)
File 344.2 KB