Published online by Cambridge University Press: 02 December 2021
Why do some regional powers collectively threatened by a potential hegemon eagerly cooperate to ensure their security, while others appear reluctant to do so? I argue that robust security cooperation at the regional level is less likely when an unbalanced distribution of power exists between the prospective security partners. In such situations, regional security cooperation tends to be stunted by foot-dragging and obstructionism on the part of materially inferior states wary of facilitating the strategic expansion of neighbours with larger endowments of power resources, anticipating that much of the coalition's gains in military capabilities are likely to be achieved through an expansion of the materially superior neighbour's force levels and strategic flexibility. Evidence drawn from primary material and the latest historiography of France's postwar foreign policy towards West Germany provides considerable support for this argument. My findings offer important correctives to standard accounts of the origins of Western European security cooperation and suggest the need to rethink the difficulties the United States has encountered in promoting cooperation among local allies in key global regions.
1 For a recent illustration, see Hyonhee Shin and Makiko Yamazaki, ‘South Korea, Japan in fresh spat over intelligence deal’, Reuters (25 November 2019), available at: {https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-japan/south-korea-japan-in-fresh-spat-over-intelligence-deal-idUSKBN1XZ09L} accessed 1 May 2020.
2 Pollack, Kenneth M., ‘Securing the Gulf’, Foreign Affairs, 82:4 (2003), pp. 2–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
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4 Andrew Bennett, ‘Process tracing and causal inference’, in Henry E. Brady and David Collier (eds), Rethinking Social Inquiry: Diverse Tools, Shared Standards (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004), p. 209.
5 Important book-length works include Irwin M. Wall, The United States and the Making of Postwar France, 1945–1954 (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1991); William I. Hitchcock, France Restored: Cold War Diplomacy and the Quest for Leadership in Europe, 1944–1954 (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1998); Michael Creswell, A Question of Balance: How France and the United States Created Cold War Europe (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2006); Marc Trachtenberg, A Constructed Peace: The Making of the European Settlement, 1945–1963 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999); James McAllister, No Exit: America and the German Problem, 1943–1954 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002); David Clay Large, Germans to the Front: West German Rearmament in the Adenauer Era (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 1996); Mark S. Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift: Franco-German Relations and the Shifting Premises of European Security’ (PhD dissertation, Columbia University, New York, NY, 2002); and David Mark Thompson, ‘Delusions of Grandeur: French Global Ambitions and the Problem of the Revival of Military Power, 1950–1954’ (PhD dissertation, University of Toronto, Canada, 2007).
6 In Christensen's words, ‘scholars of international relations are so accustomed to [thinking in terms of] balance-of-power politics that they rarely seem surprised when ideologically different [or previously conflictual] countries cooperate against common foes.' Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947–1958 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996), p. 3, bracketed content mine.
7 The key reference is Sebastian Rosato, Europe United: Power Politics and the Making of the European Community (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2011). Rosato fully recognises that Western European cooperation in the military realm was limited compared to that in the economic realm, with particularly marked setbacks occurring prior to the mid-1950s. This article both extends and amends Rosato's basic interpretation of military cooperation in early Cold War Europe.
8 Hemmer, Christopher and Katzenstein, Peter J., ‘Why is there no NATO in Asia? Collective identity, regionalism, and the origins of multilateralism’, International Organization, 56:3 (2002), pp. 576–607CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
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10 See Harry Eckstein, ‘Case study and theory in political science’, in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby (eds), Handbook of Political Science, Vol. 7: Strategies of Inquiry (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 117–20.
11 Quoted in Justin McCurry, ‘“Do mention the war”, Merkel urges Japanese’, The Guardian (9 March 2015), available at: {https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/09/merkel-urges-japanese-confront-wartime-conduct} accessed 25 April 2021.
12 Wall, Postwar France, p. 272.
13 Barry R. Posen, ‘European Union security and defence policy: Response to unipolarity?’, Security Studies, 15:2 (2006), pp. 149–86.
14 Following Mearsheimer, I define a potential hegemon as ‘a great power with so much actual military capability and so much potential power that it stands a good chance of dominating and controlling all other’ states in its region. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York, NY: W. W. Norton 2001), p. 45.
15 James D. Morrow, ‘Alliances: Why write them down?’, Annual Review of Political Science, 3 (2000), pp. 63–83.
16 Mearsheimer, Tragedy, ch. 3.
17 David A. Lake, Entangling Relations: American Foreign Policy in its Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), p. 48.
18 Timothy W. Crawford, Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003), p. 35. Also noteworthy here is Paul Poast's research on how concerns about the compatibility of war plans between prospective allies inform alliance treaty negotiations. See Paul Poast, Arguing about Alliances: The Art of Agreement in Military-Pact Negotiations (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2019).
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22 Mearsheimer, Tragedy, ch. 4.
23 Lundestad, Geir, ‘Empire by invitation? The United States and Western Europe, 1945–1952’, Journal of Peace Research, 23:3 (1986), pp. 263–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson, ‘Balancing on land and at sea: Do states ally against the leading global power?’, International Security, 35:1 (2010), pp. 7–43.
24 Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1981).
25 Joseph M. Parent and Sebastian Rosato, ‘Balancing in neorealism’, International Security, 40:2 (2013), pp. 51–86.
26 Paul K. MacDonald and Joseph M. Parent, ‘Graceful decline? The surprising success of great power retrenchment’, International Security, 35:4 (2011), pp. 7–44.
27 Alexandre Debs and Nuno Monteiro, Nuclear Politics: The Strategic Causes of Proliferation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2016).
28 See, for example, Inis L. Claude Jr, Power and International Relations (New York, NY: Random House, 1962).
29 Mearsheimer, Tragedy, p. 160.
30 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1987), p. 30.
31 See, for example, Mearsheimer, Tragedy, pp. 270–2; Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, ‘Chain gangs and passed bucks: Predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity’, International Organization, 44:2 (1990), pp. 137–68; and Eric J. Labs, ‘Do weak states bandwagon?’, Security Studies, 1:3 (1992), pp. 383–416.
32 I use the terms FRG, West Germany, and Germany interchangeably, although the Federal Republic did not officially come into existence as a sovereign state until May 1949.
33 Rosato, Europe United, pp. 43–6.
34 Quoted in John W. Young, France, the Cold War, and the Western Alliance, 1944–49: French Foreign Policy and Post-war Europe (New York, NY: St. Martin's Press, 1990), p. 180.
35 McAllister, No Exit, p. 75.
36 Rosato, Europe United, p. 66.
37 CIA Records Search Tool (CREST), CIA-RDP91T01172R000200310002-5, ‘The Deteriorating Position of France’, 1 June 1953, p. 2.
38 Ibid., p. 3.
39 CREST, CIA-RDP79R01012A002000020001-8, ‘France's Probable Future Role in the Western Security System’, 23 January 1953, p. 1.
40 Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, p. 114. This point is largely uncontroversial today among students of America's Cold War strategy in Western Europe. See also McAllister, No Exit; and Creswell, Michael, ‘Between the bear and the phoenix: The United States and the European Defence Community, 1950–54’, Security Studies, 11:4 (2002), pp. 89–124CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
41 CREST, CIA-RDP79R01012A002700030001-0, ‘The Outlook in West Germany’, 14 July 1953, p. 7, emphasis added.
42 Quoted in McAllister, No Exit, p. 177, fn. 21.
43 Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, pp. 101–02. See also ‘Report by the North Atlantic Military Committee’, Foreign Relations of the United States (FRUS) 1950 (12 December 1950), vol. 3, pp. 538–9.
44 ‘The Ambassador in France (Caffery) to the Secretary of State’, FRUS 1945 (3 November 1945), vol. 3, p. 890.
45 Documents on British Policy Overseas (DBPO), ‘Sir O. Harvey (Paris) to Foreign Office’, 1 October 1950, sr. 2, vol. 3, Microfilm Supplement, Calendar 54i.
46 Hitchcock, France Restored, p. 127.
47 NATO Archives, C/5-VR/3, ‘Statement made by M. Schuman before the North Atlantic Council’, 16 September 1950, p. 6.
48 ‘Foreign Minister Schuman to the Secretary of State’, FRUS 1952–4 (29 January 1952), vol. 5, pt. 1, p. 9.
49 Ibid., p. 10.
50 Quoted in Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, pp. 123–4.
51 ‘The United States High Commissioner for Germany (McCloy) to the Secretary of State’, FRUS 1950 (25 April 1950), vol. 4, p. 635.
52 Quoted in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, p. 136.
53 Roland de Margerie, Foreign Ministry Deputy Director for Political Affairs, 28 September 1950, quoted in ibid., p. 149.
54 The plan derived its name from René Pleven, who served as France's minister of defence and then prime minister in the 1950–2 period.
55 See Large, Germans to the Front, pp. 91–5.
56 French official quoted in ‘Calendar to No. 84’, DBPO (25 October 1950), vol. 3, p. 220.
57 ‘North Atlantic Military Committee’, pp. 540–2.
58 ‘B.J.S.M. (Washington) to Ministry of Defence’, DBPO (28 October 1950), sr. 2, vol. 3, p. 227.
59 ‘Calendar to No. 84’, p. 220, emphasis in original.
60 Creswell, Question of Balance, p. 91.
61 Quoted in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, p. 181.
62 National Defence Commission Report, 28 August 1954, paraphrased in Thompson, ‘Delusions of Grandeur’, p. 331, emphasis added.
63 Quoted in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, p. 181.
64 Quoted in Creswell, Question of Balance, p. 130.
65 McAllister, No Exit, pp. 243–4.
66 Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, pp. 125–8.
67 Quoted in Creswell, Question of Balance, p. 106.
68 Although the French assessment of the Soviet threat experienced ‘a short-lived period of optimism’ upon the inauguration of Guy Mollet's socialist government in 1956, it ‘again [became] very pessimistic’ by summer 1956 and ‘remained pessimistic in the following years, more so than in Washington and London’. Georges-Henri Soutou, ‘France and the Cold War, 1944–63’, Diplomacy & Statecraft, 12:4 (2001), pp. 40–1.
69 For details, see Hitchcock, France Restored, pp. 205–6.
70 Charles de Gaulle, Memoirs of Hope: Renewal and Endeavor, trans. Terence Kilmartin (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, 1971), p. 132.
71 For military personnel counts, see J. David Singer, ‘Reconstructing the Correlates of War dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985’, International Interactions, 14 (1987), pp. 115–32.
72 As late as December 1954, 23 per cent of France's army was tied down in Indochina. See CREST, CIA-RDP79R01012A005500010018-3, ‘Probable Developments in France’, 29 March 1955, p. 8.
73 Irwin Wall, ‘France in the Cold War’, Journal of European Studies, 38:2 (2008), p. 126.
74 ‘National Intelligence Estimate’, FRUS 1955–7 (13 August 1957), vol. 27, p. 161.
75 National Security Archive, ‘OIR Contribution to NIE 100-6-57: Nuclear Weapons Production by Fourth Countries – Likelihood and Consequences’, 31 May 1957, p. 2.
76 Quoted in Wilfred L. Kohl, French Nuclear Diplomacy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1971), p. 15.
77 ‘Memorandum of Conversation’, FRUS 1958–60 (28 October 1958), vol. 7, pt. 2, p. 112.
78 Quoted in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, pp. 310–11.
79 Hans-Peter Schwarz, Konrad Adenauer: German Politician and Statesman in a Period of War, Revolution, and Reconstruction, Vol. 2: The Statesman, 1952–1967, trans. Geoffrey Penny (Oxford, UK: Berghahn Books, 1997), p. 460.
80 ‘Memorandum of Conversation’, FRUS 1958–60 (12 November 1958), vol. 7, pt. 1, p. 76.
81 Quoted in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, p. 314.
82 De Gaulle, Memoirs of Hope, p. 181.
83 CREST, CIA-RDP98-00979R000400450001-8, ‘The Outlook for France’, 13 August 1957, p. 16.
84 Quoted in Schwarz, Konrad Adenauer, p. 620.
85 Treaty text available at: {https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/text-of-the-elysee-treaty-joint-declaration-of-francogerman-friendship/}.
86 Quoted in Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, p. 205.
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89 Trachtenberg, ‘The de Gaulle problem’, pp. 86–7.
90 See sources cited in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, p. 218, fn. 31.
91 25 November 1964, quoted in Trachtenberg, ‘The de Gaulle problem’, p. 87.
92 ‘The Secretary of State to the President’, FRUS 1952–4 (26 May 1952), vol. 5, pt. 1, p. 682.
93 See, for example, Thomas U. Berger, Cultures of Antimilitarism: National Security in Germany and Japan (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998).
94 Berger, Cultures of Antimilitarism, p. 3.
95 Quoted in Sheetz, ‘Continental Drift’, p. 145.
96 Ronald J. Granieri, The Ambivalent Alliance: Konrad Adenauer, the CDU/CSU, and the West, 1949–1966 (New York, NY: Berghahn Books, 2004), pp. 81–3.
97 Gerzhoy, Gene, ‘Alliance coercion and nuclear restraint: How the United States thwarted West Germany's nuclear ambitions’, International Security, 39:4 (2015), pp. 91–129CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
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99 Quoted in ibid., p. 121.
100 See Joffe, ‘Europe's American pacifier’.
101 Quoted in Hitchcock, France Restored, p. 146.
102 For details, see Wall, Postwar France, ch. 9.
103 Creswell, ‘Bear and the phoenix’, p. 89.
104 14 December 1953, quoted in McAllister, No Exit, p. 237.
105 Creswell, ‘Bear and the phoenix’, p. 89.
106 De Gaulle is eventually said to have become profoundly disappointed at Bonn's lukewarm attitude towards his overtures. See Trachtenberg, ‘The de Gaulle problem’, p. 87.
107 Michael Creswell and Marc Trachtenberg, ‘France and the German Question, 1945–1955’, Journal of Cold War Studies, 5:3 (2003), p. 21. See also Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, ch. 4; and Creswell, Question of Balance, pp. 31–5.
108 I elaborate the theoretical and empirical groundwork of this argument in a separate study, which focuses on the relationship between the grand strategic preferences of leading alliance powers and the military policy choices of their weaker allies. See Joshua Byun, ‘Unruly Friends: Grand Strategy and Strategic Incoherence in Military Alliances’ (PhD dissertation, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois), esp. ch. 3.
109 ‘United States Minutes of the Second Meeting between President Truman and Prime Minister Pleven’, 30 January 1951, FRUS 1951 (30 January 1951), vol. 4, pt. 1, pp. 318, 326.
110 Quoted in Trachtenberg, Constructed Peace, 112, fn. 56.
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113 See Trachtenberg, History and Strategy, ch. 5.
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115 Pollack, ‘Securing the Gulf’, p. 15.
116 John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Reappraisal of American National Security Policy during the Cold War (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2005 [orig. pub. 1982]), p. 5.
117 Nicholas J. Spykman, America's Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1942), p. 460.
118 Ji Young Kim, ‘Rethinking the role of identity factors: The history problem and the Japan-South Korea security relationship in the post-Cold War period’, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 15:3 (2015), p. 8.
119 GDP ratios are based on data from the World Bank, available at: {https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD}. On Japan's military might, see Lind, Jennifer M., ‘Pacifism or passing the buck? Testing theories of Japanese security policy’, International Security, 29:1 (2004), pp. 94–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
120 Grant Newsham, ‘Conflict in Korea? Hard for Japan to sit it out’, Asia Times (22 August 2017), available at: {http://www.atimes.com/article/conflict-korea-hard-japan-sit/} accessed 5 January 2021.
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