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Modelling insurgent attack dynamics across geographic scales and in cyberspace†

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 July 2015

N. F. JOHNSON ,
D. E. JOHNSON  and
E. M. RESTREPO
N. F. JOHNSON
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA email: [email protected]
D. E. JOHNSON
Affiliation:
Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA email: [email protected]
E. M. RESTREPO
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA email: [email protected]
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Abstract

We discuss the emergence of common mathematical patterns governing the timing and severity of insurgent and terrorist attacks, across geographic scales and including cyberspace. We present mathematical models that provide a generative explanation of these patterns. Despite wide variations in the underlying settings and circumstances, the ubiquity of these patterns suggests there is a common way in which groups of humans fight each other. Our empirical findings follow from the analysis of myriad state-of-the-art datasets with resolution at the level of individual attacks, while our mathematical modelling involves numerical and analytical solutions of fission–fusion dynamics together with progress curve analysis.

Keywords

Modelling and interdisciplinarityBehavioural and social sciencesApplications in sciences
Type
Papers
Information
European Journal of Applied Mathematics , Volume 27 , Issue 3: Mathematical Modelling of Crime and Security , June 2016 , pp. 357 - 376
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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Footnotes

†

NFJ gratefully acknowledges a grant from the Office of Naval Research (ONR): N000141110451.

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