Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-28T19:46:30.120Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

In search of a new economic model determined by logistic growth

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 March 2019

R. G. SMIRNOV*
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 3J5, Canada e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]
K. WANG
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 3J5, Canada e-mails: [email protected]; [email protected]

Abstract

In this paper, we extend the work by Sato devoted to the development of economic growth models within the framework of the Lie group theory. We propose a new growth model based on the assumption of logistic growth in factors and derive the corresponding production functions, as well as a compatible notion of wage share. In the process, it is shown that the new functions compare reasonably well against relevant economic data. The corresponding problem of maximisation of profit under conditions of perfect competition is solved with the aid of one of these functions. In addition, it is explained in reasonably rigorous mathematical terms why Bowley’s law no longer holds true in the post-1960 data.

Type
Papers
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Accinelli, E. & Brida, J. G. (2006) Re-formulation of the Ramsey model of optimal growth with the Richards population growth law. WSEAS Trans. Math. 5, 473478.Google Scholar
Accinelli, E. & Brida, J. G. (2007) The Ramsey model with logistic population growth. Econ. Bull. 3, 18.Google Scholar
Agricola, I. & Friedrich, T. (2002) Global Analysis. Differential Forms in Analysis, Geometry and Physics. Translated from the 2001 German original by Andreas Nestke. Graduate Studies in Mathematics, 52. American Mathematical Society, Providence, RI.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anita, S., Capasso, V., Kunze, H. & La Torre, D. (2013) Optimal control and long-run dynamics for spatial economic growth model with physical capital accumulation and pollution diffusion. Appl. Math. Lett. 26, 908912.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anita, S., Capasso, V., Kunze, H. & La Torre, D. (2015) Dynamics and optimal control in a spatially structured economic growth model with pollution diffusion and environmental taxation. Appl. Math. Lett. 42, 3640.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anita, S., Capasso, V., Kunze, H. & La Torre, D. (2017) Optimizing environmental taxation on physical capital for a spatially structured economic growth model including pollution diffusion. Vietnam J. Math. 54, 199206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Antràs, P. (2004) Is the US aggregate production function Cobb–Douglas? New estimates of the elasticity of substitution. Contrib. Macroecon. 4, 134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bentolila, S. & Saint-Paul, G. (2003) Explaining movements in the labor share. Contrib. Macroecon. 3, 131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowley, A. L. (1900) Wages in the United Kingdom in the Nineteenth Century: Notes for the Use of Students of Social and Economic Questions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Bowley, A. L. (1937) Wages and Income in the United Kingdom Since 1860. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brass, W. (1974) Perspectives in population prediction: illustrated by the statistics of England and Wales. J. R. Stat. Soc.: Ser. A. 137, 532570.Google Scholar
Brida, J. G. & CAySSIALS, G. (2016) Population dynamics and the Mankiw–Romer–Weil model. Int. J. Math. Model. Num. Opt. 7, 363375.Google Scholar
Brida, J. G., Cayssials, G. & Pereyra, J. S. (2016) The discrete-time Ramsey model with a decreasing population growth rate: stability and speed of convergence. J. Dyn. Syst. Diff. Equ. 6, 219233.Google Scholar
Cai, D. (2012) An economic growth model with endogenous carrying capacity and demographic transition. Math. Comp. Model. 55, 432441.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Calhoun, J. B. (1973) Death squared: the explosive growth and demise of a mouse population. Proc. R. Soc. Med. 66, 8088.Google ScholarPubMed
Capasso, V., Engbers, R. & La Torre, D. (2012) Population dynamics in a spatial Solow model with a convex–concave production function. In: Perna, C. and Sibillo, M. (editors), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance. Springer. Milano, pp. 6168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cass, D. (1965) Optimum growth in an aggregative model of capital accumulation. Rev. Econ. Stud. 32, 233240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cheviakov, A. F. & Hartwick, J. (2009) Constant per capita consumption paths with exhaustible resources and decaying produced capital, Ecol. Econ. 68, 29692973.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, C. W. (1971) Economically optimal policies for the utilization of biologically renewable resources. Math. Biosci. 12, 245260.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cobb, C. W. & Douglas, P. H. (1928) A theory of production. Am. Econ. Rev. 18 (Supplement), 139165.Google Scholar
Cochran, C. M., Mclenaghan, R. G. & Smirnov, R. G. (2017) Equivalence problem for the orthogonal separable webs in 3-dimensional hyperbolic space. J. Math. Phys. 58, 063513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, A. (1911) An Introduction to the Lie Theory of One-Parameter Groups. DC Health & Company, Lexington.Google Scholar
Domar, E. D. (1946) Capital expansion, rate of growth, and employment. Econometrica 14, 137147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Douglas, P. H. (1976) The Cobb–Douglas production function once again: its history, its testing, and some new empirical values. J. Polit. Econ. 84, 903916.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elsby, M. W. L., Hobijn, B. & Sahin, A. (2013) The decline of the U.S. labor share. Brookings Pap. Econ. Act. 47, 163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engbers, R., Burger, M. & Capasso, V. (2014) Inverse problems in geographical economics: parameter identification in the spatial Solow model. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A 372, 20130402.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ferrara, M. & Guerrini, L. (2008) Economic development and sustainability in a two-sector model with variable population growth rate. J. Math. Sci.: Adv. Appl. 1, 232339.Google Scholar
Ferrara, M. & Guerrini, L. (2008) Economic development and sustainability in a Solow model with natural capital and logistic population change. Int. J. Pure Appl. Math. 48, 435450.Google Scholar
Ferrara, M. & Guerrini, L. (2008) The neoclassical model of Solow and Swan with logistic population growth. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference of IMBIC on “Mathematical Sciences for Advancement of Science and Technology (MSAST)”. Kolkata, India, pp. 119127.Google Scholar
Ferrara, M. & Guerrini, L. (2009) The Green Solow model with logistic population change. In: Proceedings of the 10th WSEAS International Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Business and Economics. Prague. Czech Republic. March 23–25, pp. 1720.Google Scholar
Ferrara, M. & Guerrini, L. (2009) The Ramsey model with logistic population growth and Benthamite felicity function. In: Proceedings of the 10th WSEAS International Conference on Mathematics and Computers in Business and Economics. Prague. Czech Republic. March 23–25, pp. 231234.Google Scholar
Ferrara, M. & Guerrini, L. (2009) The Ramsey model with logistic population growth and Benthamite felicity function revisited. WSEAS Trans. Math. 8, 97106.Google Scholar
Gable, R. W. (1959) The politics and economics of the 1957–1958 recession. West. Polit. Q. 12, 557559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
García-Peãlosa, C. & Turnovsky, S. J. (2009) The dynamics of wealth inequality in a simple Ramsey model: a note on the role of production flexibility. Macroeconomic Dynamics 13, 250262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guerrini, L. (2010) A closed-form solution to the Ramsey model with the von Bertalanffy population law. Appl. Math. Sci. 4, 32393244.Google Scholar
Guerrini, L. (2010) The Ramsey model with a bounded population growth rate. J. Macroecon. 32, 872878.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guerrini, L. (2010) A closed-form solution to the Ramsey model with logistic population growth. Econ. Model., 27, 11781182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guscina, A. (2007) Effects of globalization on labor’s share in national income. IMFWorking Paper No. 06/294.Google Scholar
Harrod, R. F. (1939) An essay in dynamics theory. Econ. J. 49, 1433.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hatemi-J., A. (2014) Asymmetric generalized impulse responses with an application in finance. Econ. Model. 36, 1822.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horwood, J. T., Mclenaghan, R. G. & Smirnov, R. G. (2005) Invariant classification of orthogonally separable Hamiltonian systems in Euclidean Space. Commun. Math. Phys. 259, 679709.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inada, K. (1963) On a two-sector model of economic growth: comments and a generalization. Rev. Econ. Stud. 30, 119127.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, C. I. & Scrimgeour, D. (2008) A new proof of Uzawa’s steady-state growth theorem. Rev. Econ. Stat. 90, 180182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kabacoff, R. I. (2010) R in Action. Manning, New York.Google Scholar
Karabournis, L. & Neiman, B. (2014) The global decline of the labor share. Q. J. Econ. 129, 61103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, J. M. (1939) Relative movements of real wages and output. The Econ. J. 49, 3451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klein, D. R. (1968) The introduction, increase, and crash of reindeer on St. Matthew island. J. Wildl. Manage. 32, 350367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klein, F. (1872) Vergleichende Betrachtungen über Neuere Geometrische Forschungen, Verlag von Andreas Deichert, Erlangen.Google Scholar
Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H. & Potter, S. M. (1996) Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. J. Econ. 74, 119147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koopmans, T. C. (1965) On the concept of optimal economic growth. In: The Economic Approach to Development Planning. Chicago. Rand McNally, pp. 22287.Google Scholar
Krämer, H. M. (2011) Bowley’s Law: the diffusion of an empirical supposition into economic theory. Cahiers d’Économie Politique/Pap. Polit. Econ. 61, 1949.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
La Torre, D., Liuzzi, D. & Marsiglio, S. (2015) Pollution diffusion and abatement activities across space and over time. Math. Soc. Sci. 78, 4863.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leach, D. (1981) Re-evaluation of the logistic curve for human populations. J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. A 144, 94103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nerlove, M. (1965) Estimation and Identification of Cobb–Douglas Production Functions. Rand McNally, Chicago.Google Scholar
Oliver, E. R. (1982) Notes on the logistic curve for human populations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 145, 359363.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olver, P. J. (1993) Applications of Lie Groups to Differential Equations (2nd edition). Springer, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Olver, P. J. (1995) Equivalence, Invariants, and Symmetry. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, H. H. & Shin, Y. (1998) Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Econ. Lett. 58, 1729.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rabbani, S. Derivation of constant labor and capital share from the Cobb–Douglas production function, http://srabbani.com.Google Scholar
Ramsey, F. P. (1928) A mathematical theory of saving. Econ. J. 38, 543559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudin, W. (1976) Principles of Mathematical Analysis. New York. McGraw Hill.Google Scholar
Sato, R. & Ramachandran, R. V. (2014) Symmetry and Economic Invariance (2nd edition). Springer, New York.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sato, R. (1970) The estimation of biased technical progress and the production function. Int. Econ. Rev. 11, 179208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sato, R. (1977) Homothetic and non-homothetic CES production functions. Am. Econ. Rev. 67, 559569.Google Scholar
Sato, R. (1980) The impact of technical change on holotheticity of production functions. Rev. Econ. Stud. 47, 767776.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sato, R. (1981) Theory of Technical Change and Economic Invariance. Academic Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.Google Scholar
Saunders, D. J. (1989) The Geometry of Jet Bundles. London Mathematical Society Lecture Notes Series 142. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.Google Scholar
Schneider, D. (2011) The labor share: A review of theory and evidence. SFB649 Economic Risk. Discussion Paper.Google Scholar
Sims, C. D. (1980) Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: J. Econ. Soc. 48, 148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skiba, A. K. (1978) Optimal growth with convex–concave production function. Econometrica 46, 527539.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, R. M. (1956) A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Q. J. Econ. 70, 6594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, R. M. (1957) Technological change and aggregate production function. Rev. Econ. Stat. 39, 312320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stigler, G. (1961) Economic problems in measuring changes in productivity. In: Output, Input and Productivity. Princeton. Income and Wealth Series, pp. 4763.Google Scholar
Swan, T. W. (1956) Economic growth and capital accumulation. Econ. Record 32, 334361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tainter, J. A. (1988) The Collapse of Complex Societies. New York & Cambridge. Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tinter, G. (1952) Econometrics. New York. Wiley.Google Scholar
Verhurst, P. F. (1845) Recherches mathématiques sur la loi d’accroissement de la population. Nouveaux Mémoires de l’Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles Lettres de Bruxelles 18, 138.Google Scholar
This article usesmaterial from the Wikipedia article Gold reserve, which is released under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share-Alike License 3.0.Google Scholar
This article uses material from the Wikipedia article Petroleum industry, which is released under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share-Alike License 3.0.Google Scholar
This article uses material from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nonfarm Business Sector: Non-Labor Payments [PRS85006083], Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006083, October 30, 2017.Google Scholar
This article uses material from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nonfarm Business Sector: Compensation [PRS85006063], Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS85006063, October 31, 2017.Google Scholar
This article uses material from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output [OUTNFB], Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTNFB, October 31, 2017.Google Scholar