Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-19T03:21:24.714Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Understanding weekly cycles in suicide: an analysis of Austrian and Swiss data over 40 years

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 April 2014

V. Ajdacic-Gross ,
U. S. Tran ,
M. Bopp ,
G. Sonneck ,
T. Niederkrotenthaler ,
N. D. Kapusta ,
W. Rössler ,
E. Seifritz  and
M. Voracek
V. Ajdacic-Gross*
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
U. S. Tran
Affiliation:
Department of Basic Psychological Research and Research Methods, School of Psychology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
M. Bopp
Affiliation:
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
G. Sonneck
Affiliation:
Department of General Practice and Family Medicine, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Social Psychiatry, Vienna, Austria
T. Niederkrotenthaler
Affiliation:
Department of General Practice and Family Medicine, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
N. D. Kapusta
Affiliation:
Department of Psychoanalysis and Psychotherapy, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
W. Rössler
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Collegium Helveticum, University of Zurich and Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland Institute of Psychiatry, Laboratory of Neuroscience (LIM27), University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
E. Seifritz
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
M. Voracek
Affiliation:
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland Georg Elias Müller Department of Psychology, Georg August University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
*
*Address for correspondence: Dr V. Ajdacic-Gross, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Zurich University Hospital for Psychiatry, University of Zurich, PO Box 1930, CH-8021 Zürich, Switzerland. (Email: [email protected])
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Background.

Seasonal as well as weekly cycles in suicide have been described, replicated and poorly understood for a long time. In Western countries, suicides are typically least frequent on weekends and most frequent on Mondays and Tuesdays. To improve understanding of this phenomenon a strategy is required which focuses on anomalous findings beyond the regular patterns. Here, we focused on instances where the weekly suicide patterns disappear or are interrupted.

Methods.

We used data from Swiss and Austrian mortality statistics for the periods 1969–2010 and 1970–2010, respectively. First, the data were cross-tabulated by days of the week and the available socio-demographic information (sex, age, religious affiliation and region). Second, time series of cumulated daily frequencies of suicide were analysed by seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models which included intervention effects accounting for Easter and Pentecost (Whit) holidays.

Results.

First, the cross tabulations showed that weekly cycles may be smoothed above all in young persons and smoothed in drowning, jumping and car gas exhaustion suicides. Second, the ARIMA analyses displayed occasional preventive effects for holidays Saturdays and Sundays, and more systematic effects for holiday Mondays. There were no after effects on Tuesdays following holiday Mondays.

Conclusions.

In general, the weekend dip and the Monday backlog effect in suicide show striking similarities to the Advent season effect and are interpretable within the same template. The turning points between low and high frequencies possibly provide promising frames for the timing of prevention activities.

Keywords

Cyclesholidaysseasonsuicidetime series
Type
Original Article
Information
Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences , Volume 24 , Issue 4 , August 2015 , pp. 315 - 321
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ajdacic-Gross, V, Wang, J, Bopp, M, Eich, D, Rossler, W, Gutzwiller, F (2003). Are seasonalities in suicide dependent on suicide methods? A reappraisal. Social Science and Medicine 57, 1173–1181.Google Scholar
Ajdacic-Gross, V, Lauber, C, Bopp, M, Eich, D, Gostynski, M, Gutzwiller, F, Burns, T, Rössler, W (2008). Reduction in the suicide rate during Advent – a time series analysis. Psychiatry Research 157, 139–146.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ajdacic-Gross, V, Bopp, M, Ring, M, Gutzwiller, F, Rossler, W (2010). Seasonality in suicide – a review and search of new concepts for explaining the heterogeneous phenomena. Social Science and Medicine 71, 657–666.Google Scholar
Ajdacic-Gross, V, Knopfli, D, Landolt, K, Gostynski, M, Engelter, ST, Lyrer, PA, Gutzwiller, F, Rossler, W (2012). Death has a preference for birthdays–an analysis of death time series. Annals of Epidemiology 22, 603–606.Google Scholar
Barraclough, BM, White, SJ (1978). Monthly variation of suicide and undetermined death compared. British Journal of Psychiatry 132, 275–278.Google Scholar
Bergen, H, Hawton, K (2007). Variation in deliberate self-harm around Christmas and New Year. Social Science and Medicine 65, 855–867.Google Scholar
Box, GEP, Jenkins, GM (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day: San Francisco.Google Scholar
Bradvik, L, Berglund, M (2003). A suicide peak after weekends and holidays in patients with alcohol dependence. Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior 33, 186–191.Google Scholar
Corcoran, P, Reilly, M, Salim, A, Brennan, A, Keeley, HS, Perry, IJ (2004). Temporal variation in Irish suicide rates. Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior 34, 429–438.Google Scholar
Diggle, PJ (1990). Time Series. A Biostatistical Introduction. Clarendon Press: Oxford.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durkheim, E (2002/1897). Le Suicide/Suicide. Quadrige/PUF: Paris.Google Scholar
Gottman, JM (1981). Time-Series Analysis. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.Google Scholar
Helfenstein, U (1991). The use of transfer function models, intervention analysis and related time series methods in epidemiology. International Journal of Epidemiology 20, 808–815.Google Scholar
Helfenstein, U (1996). Box–Jenkins modelling in medical research. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 5, 3–22.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jessen, G, Jensen, BF (1999). Postponed suicide death? Suicides around birthdays and major public holidays. Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior 29, 272–283.Google Scholar
Jessen, G, Andersen, K, Arensman, E, Bille-Brahe, U, Crepet, P, De Leo, D, Hawton, K, Haring, C, Hjelmeland, H, Michel, K, Ostamo, A, Salander-Renberg, E, Schmidtke, A, Temesvary, B, Wasserman, D (1999 a). Temporal fluctuations and seasonality in attempted suicide in Europe – findings from the WHO/EURO multicentre study on parasuicide. Archives of Suicide Research 5, 57–69.Google Scholar
Jessen, G, Jensen, BF, Arensman, E, Bille-Brahe, U, Crepet, P, De Leo, D, Hawton, K, Haring, C, Hjelmeland, H, Michel, K, Ostamo, A, Salander-Renberg, E, Schmidtke, A, Temesvary, B, Wasserman, D (1999 b). Attempted suicide and major public holidays in Europe: findings from the WHO/EURO Multicentre Study on Parasuicide. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 99, 412–418.Google Scholar
Johnson, H, Brock, A, Griffiths, C, Rooney, C (2005). Mortality from suicide and drug-related poisoning by day of the week in England and Wales, 1993–2002. Health Statistics Quarterly 27, 13–16.Google Scholar
Kapusta, N (2012). Aktuelle Daten und Fakten zur Zahl der Suizide in Österreich 2011. Accessed 20 March 2014 http://www.suizidforschung.at/statistik_suizide_oesterreich_2011.pdf.Google Scholar
Kapusta, ND, Tran, US, Rockett, IR, De Leo, D, Naylor, CP, Niederkrotenthaler, T, Voracek, M, Etzersdorfer, E, Sonneck, G (2011). Declining autopsy rates and suicide misclassification: a cross-national analysis of 35 countries. Archives of General Psychiatry 68, 1050–1057.Google Scholar
Koger, R (2013). Die Qualität der österreichischen Suizidstatistik auf politischer Bezirksebene. Medizinische Universität: Wien.Google Scholar
Kposowa, AJ, D'Auria, S (2010). Association of temporal factors and suicides in the United States, 2000–2004. Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology 45, 433–445.Google Scholar
MacMahon, K (1983). Short-term temporal cycles in the frequency of suicide. United States, 1972–1978. American Journal of Epidemiology 117, 744–750.Google Scholar
Maldonado, G, Kraus, JF (1991). Variation in suicide occurrence by time of day, day of the week, month, and lunar phase. Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior 21, 174–187.Google Scholar
Massing, W, Angermeyer, MC (1985). The monthly and weekly distribution of suicide. Social Science and Medicine 21, 433–441.Google Scholar
Miller, TR, Furr-Holden, CD, Lawrence, BA, Weiss, HB (2012). Suicide deaths and nonfatal hospital admissions for deliberate self-harm in the United States. Temporality by day of week and month of year. Crisis 33, 169–177.Google Scholar
Minder, CE, Zingg, W (1989). Die Sterblichkeitsstatistik in der Schweiz. Datenqualit der Todesursachen und der Berufsbezeichnungen. Amtliche Statistik der Schweiz, Nr. 155. Bundesamt für Statistik: Bern.Google Scholar
Ohtsu, T, Kokaze, A, Osaki, Y, Kaneita, Y, Shirasawa, T, Ito, T, Sekii, H, Kawamoto, T, Hashimoto, M, Ohida, T (2009). Blue Monday phenomenon among men: suicide deaths in Japan. Acta Medica Okayama 63, 231–236.Google ScholarPubMed
Panser, LA, McAlpine, DE, Wallrichs, SL, Swanson, DW, O'Fallon, WM, Melton III, LJ (1995). Timing of completed suicides among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1951–1985. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 92, 214–219.Google Scholar
Preti, A, Miotto, P (1998). Seasonality in suicides: the influence of suicide method, gender and age on suicide distribution in Italy. Psychiatry Research 81, 219–231.Google Scholar
Rockett, IR, Thomas, BM (1999). Reliability and sensitivity of suicide certification in higher-income countries. Suicide and Life Threatening Behavior 29, 141–149.Google Scholar
Rockett, IR, Regier, MD, Kapusta, ND, Coben, JH, Miller, TR, Hanzlick, RL, Todd, KH, Sattin, RW, Kennedy, LW, Kleinig, J, Smith, GS (2012). Leading causes of unintentional and intentional injury mortality: United States, 2000–2009. American Journal of Public Health 102, e84–e92.Google Scholar
Schmitz, B (1989). Einführung in die Zeitreihenanalyse. Hans Huber: Bern.Google Scholar
Weinberg, I, Lubin, G, Shmushkevich, M, Kaplan, Z (2002). Elevated suicide rates on the first workday: a replication in Israel. Death Studies 26, 681–688.Google Scholar