Three conventional regression models were compared using the time-series data of the occurrence of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and several key climatic and occupational variables collected in low-lying land, Anhui Province, China. Model I was a linear time series with normally distributed residuals; model II was a generalized linear model with Poisson-distributed residuals and a log link; and model III was a generalized additive model with the same distributional features as model II. Model I was fitted using least squares whereas models II and III were fitted using maximum likelihood. The results show that the correlations between the HFRS incidence and the independent variables measured (i.e. difference in water level, autumn crop production and density of Apodemus agrarius) ranged from −0·40 to 0·89. The HFRS incidence was positively associated with density of A. agrarius and crop production, but was inversely associated with difference in water level. The residual analyses and the examination of the accuracy of the models indicate that model III may be the most suitable in the assessment of the relationship between the incidence of HFRS and the independent variables.

The paper proposes a model explaining the spatial variation in incidence of nephropathia epidemica in Europe. We take into account the rodent dynamic features and the replicative dynamics of the virus in animals, high in the acute phase of newly infected animals and low in the subsequent chronic phase. The model revealed that only vole populations with multi-annual fluctuations allow for simultaneously high numbers of infected rodents and high proportions of those rodents in the acute excretion phase during the culminating phase of population build-up. This leads to a brief peak in exceptionally high concentrations of virus in the environment, and thereby, to human exposure. Such a mechanism suggests that a slight ecological disturbance in animal–parasite systems could result in the emergence of human diseases. Thus, the potential risk for public health due to several zoonotic diseases may be greater than previously believed, based solely on the distribution of human cases.

Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against measles. We reappraise measles seroepidemiological data in Taiwan from 1974 to 2004 having robust age-stratified serological information on exposure and immunity to quantitatively characterize measles vaccination programmes. We dynamically model measles seroepidemiology to estimate age-dependent intensity of infection associated with the effects of different contact patterns on pre- and post-vaccination. The WAIFM (who acquires infection from whom) contact matrix is employed to describe the transmission between and within each age group. A deterministic SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infected–recovery) model is used to capture subpopulation dynamics. Our study shows that mass regional or nationwide vaccination programmes could greatly reduce the potential for a major measles epidemic and have strong direct effects on the potential impact of childhood vaccination. We parameterize a predictive model that should reduce the socio-economic costs of measles surveillance in Taiwan and thereby encourage its continuance, especially for preschool children.

This study investigated fluoroquinolone, macrolide resistances and serotype distributions among Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolated from children in Bangkok and rural settings during 1991–2000. Phenotypic identification, serotyping, and susceptibility testing were performed by standard microbiological procedures. The predominant serotypes of C. jejuni were Lior 36, 2 and 4 and of C. coli were Lior 8, 29 and 55. Resistance to nalidixic acid increased significantly during 1991–2000 and the frequency of isolates resistant to both nalidixic acid and ciprofloxacin in Bangkok was significantly greater than in rural settings. In 1996–2000, a significant trend was observed in C. jejuni isolates resistant to ciprofloxacin from Bangkok but not for macrolide resistance from both settings. In summary, fluoroquinolone resistance among C. jejuni and C. coli isolates became widespread in both Bangkok and rural settings in Thailand in the 1990s while widespread resistance to macrolides was undetected.

It is estimated that of 50000 persons in Scotland (1% of the county's population), infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), around 90% injected drugs. This paper reviews data on the prevalence and incidence of HCV, and the methods used to generate such information, among injecting drug users (IDUs), in Scotland. The prevalence estimate for HCV among IDUs in Scotland as a whole (44% in 2000), is comparable with those observed in many European countries. Incidence rates ranged from 11·9 to 28·4/100 person-years. The data have shaped policy to prevent infection among IDUs and have informed predictions of the number of HCV-infected IDUs who will likely progress to, and require treatment and care for, severe HCV-related liver disease. Although harm reduction interventions, in particular needle and syringe exchanges and methadone maintenance therapy, reduced the transmission of HCV among IDUs during the early to mid-1990s, incidence in many parts of the country remains high. The prevention of HCV among IDUs continues to be one of Scotland's major public health challenges.

Planning adequate public health responses against emerging infectious diseases requires predictive tools to evaluate the impact of candidate intervention strategies. With current interest in pandemic influenza very high, modelling approaches have suggested antiviral treatment combined with targeted prophylaxis as an effective first-line intervention against an emerging influenza pandemic. To investigate how the effectiveness of such interventions depends on contact structure, we simulate the effects in networks with variable degree distributions. The infection attack rate can increase if the number of contacts per person is heterogeneous, implying the existence of high-degree individuals who are potential super-spreaders. The effectiveness of a socially targeted intervention suffers from heterogeneous contact patterns and depends on whether infection is predominantly transmitted to close or casual contacts. Our findings imply that the various contact networks' degree distributions as well as the allocation of contagiousness between close and casual contacts should be examined to identify appropriate strategies of disease control measures.

Pneumonia and influenza represent a significant public health burden in Canada and abroad. Knowledge of how this burden varies geographically provides clues to understanding the determinants of these illnesses, and insight into the effective management of health-care resources. We conducted a retrospective, population-based, ecological-level study to assess age- and gender-specific spatial patterns of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in the province of Ontario, Canada from 1992 to 2001. Results revealed marked variability in hospitalization rates by age, as well as clear and statistically significant patterns of high rates in northern rural counties and low rates in southern urban counties. A moderate yet significant level of positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I=0·21, P<0·05) was found in the global data, with significant, age-specific clusters of high values or ‘hot spots’ identified in several northern counties. Findings illustrate the need for geographically focused prevention strategies, and resource and service allocation policies informed by regional and population-specific demands.

The aim of our study is to describe the prevalence of the different HPV types in women with pre-neoplastic lesions of the cervix in Greece. Cervical scrapes from 841 women were obtained for both cytological evaluation and analysis for the presence of HPV DNA. PCR was performed on specimens from these 841 women. The Pap test results were normal or showed benign cellular changes in 45·8% of the women, atypical squamous cells of undeterminated significance (ASCUS) in 23·2%, low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesion (LSIL) in 27·9% and high-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesion (HSIL) in 3·1%. HPV DNA was demonstrated in 23·6% of cytologically normal women. We detected HPV in 60% of the total samples. Of these, HPV-16 was the most common HPV DNA detected. Interestingly, HPV-58 was inversely correlated with positive cytological findings. A clear pattern of decreasing prevalence of HPV with age was also observed. Our results indicate that HPV infections, especially those with HPV-16, represent a significant public health concern in Greece.

West Nile virus (WNV) outbreak in North Dakota in 2002 included over 569 horse cases, clustered mainly in the eastern and northeastern parts of the state. The pattern of occurrence observed suggested existence of specific environmental and ecological factors that increased the risk for infection and illness in those locations. We developed a predictive model with factors that explained the pattern of WNV occurrence observed. Results indicated that surface elevation, temperature, precipitation, reported WNV-positive birds, reported WNV-positive humans, and reported WNV-positive mosquitoes were important predictors of occurrence in horses. However, case distance from water bodies was not significant in the model. Future predictive models of WNV occurrence in horses should take into account these factors in order to improve accuracy and reliability. Research into other potential determinants such as horse management factors are required to determine more differential risk factors associated with WNV occurrence in horses.

The aims were to assess the prevalence of HIV infection among young adult heroin users, including injecting heroin users (IHUs) and non-injecting heroin users (NIHUs), and to explore the differences by gender and other factors. The design was a cross-sectional cohort study between April 2001 and December 2003, which included 961 current heroin users (HU), aged 18–30 years: 422 in Madrid, 351 in Barcelona and 188 in Seville; 621 were IHUs and 340 were NIHUs. All were street-recruited by chain referral methods. Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire with computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). Samples for HIV testing (dried blood spot) were collected and tested with ELISA and Western Blot. Bivariate, logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analyses were performed. The overall prevalence of HIV infection among IHUs was 25·8% (95% CI 22·3–29·3) [32·4% (95% CI 26·6–38·1) in Madrid, 20·5% (95% CI 15·6–25·4) in Barcelona, and 20·6% (95% CI 9·8–31·4) in Seville], whereas in NIHUs it was 4·0% (95% CI 2·1–6·7), with no differences among cities. The prevalence was significantly higher in women than in men in NIHUs (10·9%, 95% CI 4·3–17·5 vs. 1·7%, 95% CI 0·5–4·2) and was non-significantly higher in IHUs (30·4%, 95% CI 23·0–37·8 vs. 24·1%, 95% CI 20·1–28·1). HIV prevalence in short-term IHUs was 12·9% (CI 8·8–17·02), with no differences among cities. In the logistic analysis, the variables associated with infection in IHUs were ever having injected with used syringes (OR 3·4, 95% CI 2·2–5·3), ever having been in prison (OR 2·6, 95% CI 1·6–4·0), and heroin as the first drug injected at least weekly (OR 2·3, 95% CI 1·1–4·5). Factors positively associated with HIV infection in NIHUs were female sex (OR 8·7, 95% CI 2·6–29·2) and age >25 years (OR 3·1, 95% CI 0·9–11·1), while primary educational level was inversely associated (OR 0·26, 95% CI 0·1–0·9). Although there are important geographic differences, HIV prevalence in IHUs remains high, even in short-term IHUs, whereas it was almost six times lower in NIHUs. The prevalence in women is higher than in men, particularly among NIHUs. A wide range of preventive strategies should be developed, aimed primarily at empowering women to negotiate safe sex.

The aim of the European Sero-Epidemiology Network is to establish comparability of the serological surveillance of vaccine-preventable diseases in Europe. The designated reference laboratory (RL) for measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) prepared and tested a panel of 151 sera by the reference enzyme immunoassay (rEIA). Laboratories in 21 countries tested the panel for antibodies against MMR using their usual assay (a total of 16 different EIAs) and the results were plotted against the reference results in order to obtain equations for the standardization of national serum surveys. The RL also tested the panel by the plaque neutralization test (PNT). Large differences in qualitative results were found compared to the RL. Well-fitting standardization equations with R2⩾0·8 were obtained for almost all laboratories through regression of the quantitative results against those of the RL. When compared to PNT, the rEIA had a sensitivity of 95·3%, 92·8% and 100% and a specificity of 100%, 87·1% and 92·8% for measles, mumps and rubella, respectively. The need for standardization was highlighted by substantial inter-country differences. Standardization was successful and the selected standardization equations allowed the conversion of local serological results into common units and enabled direct comparison of seroprevalence data of the participating countries.

We determined the incidence of cryptosporidiosis in children aged <5 years presenting with diarrhoea in an urban and rural hospital-based setting in Malawi. Stools were collected over a 22-month period during both rainy and dry seasons. A range of microscopic methods were used to determine the presence of Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts. Species determination was by polymerase chain reaction–restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR–RFLP) of oocyst-extracted DNA using 18S rRNA and COWP gene loci. Cryptosporidium spp. oocysts were seen in 5·9% (50/848) of samples, of which 43 amplified by PCR–RFLP indicated the following species: C. hominis, C. parvum, C. hominis/C. parvum, C. meleagridis and C. andersoni. Seven samples could not be amplified by PCR. Wider species diversity was found in the rural setting, and may be a result of increased malnutrition and zoonotic exposure in this area. Improvements in water, sanitation, household hygiene and animal control are required to reduce the incidence of infection in this population.

Mathematical models are constructed to investigate the population dynamics of Verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) serogroups O26 and O103 in two different calf cohorts. We compare the epidemiological characteristics of these two serogroups within the same calf cohort as well as the same serogroups between the two calf cohorts. The sources of infection are quantified for both calf cohort studies. VTEC serogroups O26 and O103 mainly differ in the rate at which calves acquire infection from sources other than infected calves, while infected calves typically remain infectious for less than 1 week regardless of the serogroups. Fewer than 20% of VTEC-positive samples are the result of calf-to-calf transmission. PFGE typing data are available for VTEC-positive samples to further subdivide the serogroup data in one of the two calf cohort studies. For serogroup O26 but not O103, there is evidence for unequal environmental exposure to infection with different PFGE types.

There is little UK data on hospital admission rates for childhood pneumonia, lobar pneumonia, severity or risk factors. From 13 hospitals serving the catchment population, demographic and clinical details were prospectively collected between 2001 and 2002 for children aged 0–15 years, seen by a paediatrician with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and consistent chest X-ray changes. From 750 children assessed in hospital, incidence of CAP was 14·4 (95% CI 13·4–15·4)/10000 children per year and 33·8 (95% CI 31·1–36·7) for <5-year-olds; with an incidence for admission to hospital of 12·2 (95% CI 11·3–13·2) and 28·7 (95% CI 26·2–31·4) respectively. Where ascertainment was confirmed, incidence of CAP assessed in hospital was 16·1 (95% CI 14·9–17·3) and 41·0 (95% CI 37·7–44·5) in the 0–4 years age group, whilst incidence for hospital admission was 13·5 (95% CI 12·4–14·6) and 32 (95% CI 29·1–35·1) respectively. In the <5 years age group incidence of lobar pneumonia was 5·6 (95% CI 4·5–6·8)/10000 per year and severe disease 19·4 (95% CI 17·4–21·7)/10000 per year. Risk of severe CAP was significantly increased for those aged <5 years (OR 1·50, 95% CI 1·07–2·11) and with prematurity, OR 4·02 (95% CI 1·16–13·85). It also varied significantly by county of residence. This is a unique insight into the burden of hospital assessments and admissions caused by childhood pneumonia in the United Kingdom and will help inform future preventative strategies.

Diagnosis and treatment of endemic infectious disease is crucial for productivity of cattle in rural sub-Saharan Africa, but shortages of trained veterinary professionals necessitate support for less well-trained cadres of animal health worker. A Delphi survey of veterinary experts provided quantitative information on key clinical signs associated with eight endemic bovine diseases, then heuristics and dendrogram analysis identified a reduced sign set to be incorporated in a diagnostic decision support tool implemented as a simple colour-banded card. One hundred and seventy disease-sign questionnaire returns were obtained from 32 veterinary research scientists and 14 veterinary practitioners. Preliminary validation of the decision support tool for 16 prototypical cases resulted in ‘correct’ diagnosis over 90% of the time. The card potentially serves as a training aid and aide-mémoire, and could improve the diagnostic competence of animal healthcare providers.

In September 2002, facsimiles were sent to 360 primary-care physicians alerting them to a local outbreak of Q fever. The physicians subsequently submitted serology samples on significantly more patients than in a previously comparable period in 2001. Facsimile cascade assists effective communication with primary-care physicians in an outbreak investigation.

To determine the potential benefits of regionally targeted mass vaccination as an adjunct to other smallpox control strategies we employed a spatial metapopulation patch model based on the administrative districts of Great Britain. We counted deaths due to smallpox and to vaccination to identify strategies that minimized total deaths. Results confirm that case isolation, and the tracing, vaccination and observation of case contacts can be optimal for control but only for optimistic assumptions concerning, for example, the basic reproduction number for smallpox (R0=3) and smaller numbers of index cases (∼10). For a wider range of scenarios, including larger numbers of index cases and higher reproduction numbers, the addition of mass vaccination targeted only to infected districts provided an appreciable benefit (5–80% fewer deaths depending on where the outbreak started with a trigger value of 1–10 isolated symptomatic individuals within a district).

During the 2004–2005 influenza season two independent influenza surveillance systems operated simultaneously in three United States counties. The New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) prospectively enrolled children hospitalized for respiratory symptoms/fever and tested them using culture and RT–PCR. The Emerging Infections Program (EIP) and a similar clinical-laboratory surveillance system identified hospitalized children who had positive influenza tests obtained as part of their usual medical care. Using data from these systems, we applied capture–recapture analyses to estimate the burden of influenza related-hospitalizations in children aged <5 years. During the 2004–2005 influenza season the influenza-related hospitalization rate estimated by capture–recapture analysis was 8·6/10 000 children aged <5 years. When compared to this estimate, the sensitivity of the prospective surveillance system was 69% and the sensitivity of the clinical-laboratory based system was 39%. In the face of limited resources and an increasing need for influenza surveillance, capture–recapture analysis provides better estimates than either system alone.

Contact tracing is a well-established disease control measure that seeks to uncover cases by following chains of infection. This paper examines mathematical models of both single-step and iterative contact tracing schemes and analyses the ability of these procedures to trace core groups and the sensitivity of the intervention to the timescale of tracing. An iterative tracing process is shown to be particularly effective at uncovering high-risk individuals, and thus it provides a powerful public health tool. Further targeting of tracing effort is considered. When the population exhibits like-with-like (assortative) mixing the required effort for eradication can be significantly reduced by preferentially tracing the contacts of high-risk individuals; in populations where individuals have reliable information about their contacts, further gains in efficiency can be realized. Contact tracing is, therefore, potentially an even more potent tool than its present usage suggests.

Previous serological studies on the Arara do Laranjal Indian group revealed extensive HTLV-2 infections. A collection of 97 new samples from the Arara were found repeatedly negative using three different commercial enzyme immunoassays. Eight samples that exhibited optical density readings close to the cut-off value were re-evaluated using Western blot (GeneLab 2.4, Singapore) assay. One sample was found to be non-reactive, five exhibited indeterminate patterns, one was classified as HTLV, and one was confirmed as HTLV-2. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell DNA of the eight samples were subjected to nested PCR and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of the pX and env regions, and nucleotide sequencing of the 5′-LTR region. All produced amplification products of pX, but env could be amplified in only one sample with the commonly used primers. RFLP analysis of the pX region using TaqI confirmed HTLV-2 infection. Nucleotide sequencing of the 5′-LTR region was performed in three samples (HTLV-2, HTLV and indeterminate based on Western blot pattern). Phylogenetic analysis of a 449-nt fragment using the Neighbour-Joining method clearly demonstrated that the three samples clustered within the HTLV-2c molecular subtype. The present study confirms the wide dissemination of the HTLV-2c subtype among linguistically and culturally distinct Amazonian Indian groups, and emphasizes the unique occurrence of infection by this subtype in Brazil. Moreover, it emphasizes the limitation of employing the present serological screening assays in blood banks, epidemiological studies, and the importance of molecular assays in the confirmatory procedures for the primary detection of HTLV-2 infections.