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The transmission dynamics of groups A and B human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) in England & Wales and Finland: seasonality and cross-protection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2005

L. J. WHITE ,
M. WARIS ,
P. A. CANE ,
D. J. NOKES  and
G. F. MEDLEY
L. J. WHITE
Affiliation:
Ecology & Epidemiology Group, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kilifi, Kenya
M. WARIS
Affiliation:
Department of Virology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
P. A. CANE
Affiliation:
Health Protection Agency Antiviral Susceptibility Reference Unit, University of Birmingham Medical School, Birmingham, UK
D. J. NOKES
Affiliation:
Ecology & Epidemiology Group, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kilifi, Kenya
G. F. MEDLEY
Affiliation:
Ecology & Epidemiology Group, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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Abstract

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Human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV) transmission dynamics are inherently cyclical, and the observed genetic diversity (between groups A and B) also appears to have a repeating pattern. A key unknown is the extent to which genetic variants interact immunologically, and thus impact on epidemiology. We developed a novel mathematical model for hRSV transmission including seasonal forcing of incidence and temporary intra- and inter-group partial immunity. Simultaneous model fits to data from two locations (England & Wales, UK, and Turku, Finland) successfully reproduced the contrasting infection dynamics and group A/B dominance patterns. Parameter estimates are consistent with direct estimates. Differences in the magnitude and seasonal variation in contact rate between the two populations alone could account for the variation in dynamics between these populations. The A/B group dominance patterns are explained by reductions in susceptibility to and infectiousness of secondary homologous and heterologous infections. The consequences of the observed dynamic complexity are discussed.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 133 , Issue 2 , April 2005 , pp. 279 - 289
Copyright
© 2004 Cambridge University Press