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A time series analysis of the rabies control programme in Chile

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

S. N. Ernst  and
F. Fabrega
S. N. Ernst
Affiliation:
Instituto de Medicina Preventiva Veterinaria, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla 567, Valdivia, Chile
F. Fabrega
Affiliation:
lnstituto de Salud Pública, Marathon 1000, Santiago, Chile
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Summary

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The classical time series decomposition method was used to compare the temporal pattern of rabies in Chile before and after the implementation of the control programme. In the years 1950–60, a period without control measures, rabies showed an increasing trend, a seasonal excess of cases in November and December and a cyclic behaviour with outbreaks occurring every 5 years. During 1961–1970 and 1971–86, a 26-year period that includes two different phases of the rabies programme which started in 1961, there was a general decline in the incidence of rabies. The seasonality disappeared when the disease reached a low frequency level and the cyclical component was not evident.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 103 , Issue 3 , December 1989 , pp. 651 - 657
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1989

References

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