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Spatial and temporal epidemiology of sporadic human cases of Escherichia coli O157 in Scotland, 1996–1999

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 May 2005

G. T. INNOCENT ,
D. J. MELLOR ,
S. A. McEWEN ,
W. J. REILLY ,
J. SMALLWOOD ,
M. E. LOCKING ,
D. J. SHAW ,
P. MICHEL ,
D. J. TAYLOR  and
W. B. STEELE
...Show all authors
G. T. INNOCENT
Affiliation:
Comparative Epidemiology and Informatics, Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, and Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
D. J. MELLOR
Affiliation:
Comparative Epidemiology and Informatics, Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, and Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
S. A. McEWEN
Affiliation:
Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada
W. J. REILLY
Affiliation:
Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health, Clifton House, Clifton Place, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
J. SMALLWOOD
Affiliation:
Comparative Epidemiology and Informatics, Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, and Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
M. E. LOCKING
Affiliation:
Scottish Centre for Infection and Environmental Health, Clifton House, Clifton Place, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
D. J. SHAW
Affiliation:
Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine (CTVM), Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian, Scotland, UK
P. MICHEL
Affiliation:
Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Ontario, Canada
D. J. TAYLOR
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary Pathology, University of Glasgow Veterinary School, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
W. B. STEELE
Affiliation:
Department of Veterinary Pathology, University of Glasgow Veterinary School, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
G. J. GUNN
Affiliation:
SAC Veterinary Science Division, Drummondhill, Inverness, Scotland, UK
H. E. TERNENT
Affiliation:
Comparative Epidemiology and Informatics, Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, and Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
M. E. J. WOOLHOUSE
Affiliation:
Centre for Tropical Veterinary Medicine (CTVM), Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, Roslin, Midlothian, Scotland, UK
S. W. J. REID
Affiliation:
Comparative Epidemiology and Informatics, Institute of Comparative Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, and Department of Statistics and Modelling Science, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK
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Abstract

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In Scotland, between 1995 and 2000 there were between 4 and 10 cases of illness per 100000 population per year identified as being caused by Escherichia coli O157, whereas in England and Wales there were between 1 and 2 cases per 100000 population per year. Within Scotland there is significant regional variation. A cluster of high rate areas was identified in the Northeast of Scotland and a cluster of low rate areas in central-west Scotland. Temporal trends follow a seasonal pattern whilst spatial effects appeared to be distant rather than local. The best-fit model identified a significant spatial trend with case rate increasing from West to East, and from South to North. No statistically significant spatial interaction term was found. In the models fitted, the cattle population density, the human population density, and the number of cattle per person were variously significant. The findings suggest that rural/urban exposures are important in sporadic infections.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 133 , Issue 6 , December 2005 , pp. 1033 - 1041
Copyright
2005 Cambridge University Press