Past mortality from infectious diseases and current burden of allergic diseases in England and Wales

Abstract

This study documents the changes in mortality in England and Wales over the last 100 years as a possible explanation for our increasingly allergy-prone Western society. A total of 53 million computerized recorded deaths, which occurred from 1901 to 2000 were analysed retrospectively. Childhood mortality decreased by 98%, from 40·6% of total annual deaths in 1901 to 0·9% in 2000. In 1901, 36·2% of all deaths and 51·5% of childhood deaths were from infectious diseases. By contrast in 2000, 11·6% of all deaths and only 7·4% of childhood deaths were from infectious diseases. Infectious diseases were a significant cause of childhood mortality in British cities until about 40 years ago. Several factors, including vaccination, antibiotics and improved sanitation have contributed to this trend. Survival of individuals with heightened immunity to infections may have led to natural selection of allergy-prone individuals in England and Wales. However, the relationship between changes in rates of infection and allergy is complex and not fully understood.