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Modelling equine influenza 1: a stochastic model of within-yard epidemics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 July 2002

K. GLASS ,
J. L. N. WOOD ,
J. A. MUMFORD ,
D. JESSET  and
B. T. GRENFELL
K. GLASS
Affiliation:
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket CB8 7UU, UK
J. L. N. WOOD
Affiliation:
Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket CB8 7UU, UK
J. A. MUMFORD
Affiliation:
Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket CB8 7UU, UK
D. JESSET
Affiliation:
Animal Health Trust, Lanwades Park, Kentford, Newmarket CB8 7UU, UK
B. T. GRENFELL
Affiliation:
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
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Abstract

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This paper demonstrates that a simple stochastic model can capture the features of an epidemic of equine influenza in unvaccinated horses. When the model is modified to consider vaccinated horses, we find that vaccination dramatically reduces the incidence and size of epidemics. Although occasional larger outbreaks can still occur, these are exceptional. We then look at the effects of vaccination on a yard of horses, and in particular at the relationship between pre-challenge antibody level and quantity of virus shed when challenged with the virus. While on average, a high antibody level implies that less virus will be shed during the infectious period, we identify a high degree of heterogeneity in the response of horses with similar pre-challenge antibody levels. We develop a modified model that incorporates some heterogeneity in levels of infectivity, and compare this with the simpler model.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 128 , Issue 3 , June 2002 , pp. 491 - 502
Copyright
2002 Cambridge University Press