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A mathematical model of common-cold epidemics on Tristan da Cunha

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

B. J. Hammond  and
D. A. J. Tyrrell
B. J. Hammond
Affiliation:
National Institute for Medical Research, Mill Hill, London, N. W. 7
D. A. J. Tyrrell
Affiliation:
Medical Research Council Common Cold Unit, Salisbury, England
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Summary

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Records of seven common-cold outbreaks on the island of Tristan da Cunha are compared with the corresponding time courses given by the mathematical model of Kermack & McKendrick (1927) and with an alternative model that directly involves a constant average duration of individual infection. Using computer simulation techniques the latter model is shown to be preferred and is then closely matched to the field data to obtain values for the model parameters. Consideration is then given to the intensity of epidemics predicted by the model and to the distribution of the actual epidemics relative to the theoretical epidemic threshold.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of Hygiene , Volume 69 , Issue 3 , September 1971 , pp. 423 - 433
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1971

References

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