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Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 September 2005

KUN LIN ,
DANIEL YEE-TAK FONG ,
BILIU ZHU  and
JOHAN KARLBERG
KUN LIN
Affiliation:
Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, PR China
DANIEL YEE-TAK FONG
Affiliation:
Department of Nursing Studies, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China
BILIU ZHU
Affiliation:
Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, PR China
JOHAN KARLBERG
Affiliation:
Clinical Trials Centre, Faculty of Medicine, the University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, PR China
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Abstract

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The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18·18-fold (95% confidence interval 5·6–58·8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2·8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 134 , Issue 2 , April 2006 , pp. 223 - 230
Copyright
2005 Cambridge University Press