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Thresholds of change in a multi-use conservation landscape of South Africa: historical land-cover, future transformation and consequences for environmental decision-making

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 May 2016

KAERA L. COETZER-HANACK ,
E.T.F. WITKOWSKI  and
BAREND F.N. ERASMUS
KAERA L. COETZER-HANACK*
Affiliation:
Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute (GCSRI), University of the Witwatersrand, WITS, 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, WITS, 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa
E.T.F. WITKOWSKI
Affiliation:
School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, WITS, 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa
BAREND F.N. ERASMUS
Affiliation:
Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute (GCSRI), University of the Witwatersrand, WITS, 2050, Johannesburg, South Africa
*
*Correspondence: K.L. Coetzer-Hanack [email protected]
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Summary

As multi-use conservation landscapes, biosphere reserves (BRs) exemplify the landscape mosaic approach to environmental decision-making. In this study, time-series remotely-sensed data (1993–2006–2012) were used to monitor vegetation transformation in the Kruger to Canyons Biosphere Reserve (K2C) of South Africa, updating previous land-cover research. We identified changes in spatial extent, rate and intensity of land-cover change and extrapolated observed trends to 2018. The increased rate of change in the recent observation period (2.3 vs. 5.7%) was driven by more intensive gains in impacted vegetation and settlement since 2006 (>210 km2 and >120 km2), with resultant transformation of intact habitat undermining regional connectivity. By 2012, intact vegetation had suffered losses of 6.3% (>350 km2) since 2006 and >14% (>750 km2) since 1993. A further 9.5% loss of intact habitat may represent a critical threshold, establishing K2C above the 50% threshold of landscape transformation, whereafter a rapid decline in landscape resilience is likely. Given the BR's spatial zonation, such a loss across the full extent of K2C is unlikely, at least in the short-term (i.e., by 2018). Yet, based on past trends of transformation in the unprotected transition zone, anticipating such losses in the longer term, is not unfounded (i.e., 2024).

Keywords

Intensity AnalysisKruger to Canyons Biosphere ReserveMan and the Biosphere Programmenatural resource managementprotected areasocio-ecological system
Type
Papers
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 43 , Issue 3 , September 2016 , pp. 253 - 262
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2016 

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