Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T05:01:27.391Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Predicting the distribution of invasive plants in the Ukrainian Carpathians under climatic change and intensification of anthropogenic disturbances: implications for biodiversity conservation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 August 2012

MARIA SIMPSON  and
BOHDAN PROTS
MARIA SIMPSON*
Affiliation:
Universidad de Cádiz, Departamento de Biología (Área de Botánica), Campus Río San Pedro, 11510-Puerto Real, Spain
BOHDAN PROTS
Affiliation:
State Museum of Natural History, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 18 Teatralna Str., Lviv 79008, Ukraine and WWF Danube Carpathian Programme
*
*Correspondence: Ms Maria Simpson e-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Biodiversity conservation in the Ukrainian Carpathians cannot be accomplished without a clear understanding of the factors negatively impacting habitats and species, and long-term projection of these impacts. One factor that may severely alter the ecosystems involved is the introduction and spread of invasive plant species, but the potential distribution and spatial aggregation of suitable habitats for several invaders have not been quantified. The Maxent approach was used to model the potential establishment within the entire mountain range of 11 alien invasive plant species based on stratified sampling and herbaria records and six variables representing climatic extremes, topography, and anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Predictions of habitat suitability were projected to two future change scenarios depicting increasing rates of climate warming and anthropogenic disturbances in 2050 and 2100. Under current climate and disturbance patterns, the models predicted suitable habitats for invasive species establishment to be aggregated in the south-west, east and north-east of the Ukrainian Carpathians, along major rivers and roads at altitudes of up to c. 700 m. Eight per cent of the total area within protected areas was predicted to be potentially susceptible to invasion by at least one species, with 13% of these susceptible habitats being suitable for all 11 species. Under the future change scenarios, suitable habitat ranges increased significantly in the entire study area and within regions of high conservation value. All species were projected to gain suitable habitats at higher altitudes along linear habitats and to potentially expand their ranges laterally from habitats predicted as suitable for current conditions along small rivers and roads. Under the scenario solely of increased average seasonal temperatures, suitable habitats for the establishment of at least one species within protected areas and a proposed ecological network increased by more than 15 percentage points by 2050 and by more than 30 percentage points by 2100 when compared with predictions for current conditions. Similar future patterns were discernible for the aggregation of suitable habitats for all 11 species. Incorporating increases in anthropogenic pressures into climatic-change projections led to a significantly greater projected expansion of suitable habitats for establishment as compared to scenarios considering only climatic changes. As the 11 species have already established viable populations within protected areas, further spread of at least one species is likely if conservation planning is not changed to include the management of invasive species in such areas.

Keywords

biodiversity impactsclimate changeland-use changeMaxentnature protectionplant invasionspecies distribution modellingUkrainian Carpathians
Type
THEMATIC SECTION: Biodiversity Governance in Central and Eastern Europe
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 40 , Issue 2 , June 2013 , pp. 167 - 181
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alexander, J.M., Naylor, B., Poll, M., Edwards, P.J. & Dietz, H. (2009) Plant invasions along mountain roads: the altitudinal amplitude of alien Asteraceae forbs in their native and introduced ranges. Ecography 32: 334–344.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
APRS Implementation Team (2000) Alien Plants Ranking System Version 5.1.Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Maryland, USA [www document]. URL http://www.npwrc.usgs.gov/resource/literatr/aprs/index.htmGoogle Scholar
Austin, M.P. (2002) Spatial predictions of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling 157: 101–118.Google Scholar
Bailey, J.P., Bímová, K. & Mandák, B. (2007) The potential role of polyploidy and hybridisation in the further evolution of the highly invasive Fallopia taxa in Europe. Ecological Research 22: 920–928.Google Scholar
Balogh, L. (2008) Japanese, giant, and Bohemian knotweed (Fallopia japonica Houtt., Fallopia sachalinensis Frdr. Schmidt, Fallopia x bohemica Chrtek et Chrtkova). In: The Most Important Invasive Plants in Hungary, ed. Botta-Dukàt, Z. & Balogh, L., pp. 13–33. Vacratot, Hungary: HAS Institute of Ecology and Botany.Google Scholar
Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Miklos, E. & Kis, A. (2011) Simulated regional climate change in the Carpathian Basin using ENSEMBLES model simulations. American Meteorological Society 91st Annual Meeting [www document]. URL http://ams.confex.com/ams/91Annual/webprogram/Paper185826.htmlGoogle Scholar
Bartholy, J., Pongracz, R., Torma, C., Pieczka, I., Kardos, P. & Hunyady, A. (2009) Analysis of regional climate change modelling experiments for the Carpathian Basin. International Journal of Global Warming 1: 238–252.Google Scholar
Baumann, M., Kuemmerle, T., Elbakidze, M., Ozdogan, M., Radeloff, V.C., Keuler, N.S., Prishchepov, A.V., Kruhlov, I. & Hostert, P. (2011) Patterns and drivers of post-socialist farmland abandonment in Western Ukraine. Land Use Policy 28: 552–562.Google Scholar
Becker, T., Dietz, H., Billeter, R., Buschmann, H. & Edwards, P.J. (2005) Altitudinal distribution of alien plant species in the Swiss Alps. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 7: 173–183.Google Scholar
Botta-Dukàt, Z. & Balogh, L., eds (2008) The Most Important Invasive Plants in Hungary. Vacratot, Hungary: HAS Institute of Ecology and Botany: 255 pp.Google Scholar
Botta-Dukàt, Z. & Dancza, I. (2008) Giant and Canadian goldenrod (Solidago gigantea Ait., Solidago canadensis L.). In: The Most Important Invasive Plants in Hungary, ed. Botta-Dukàt, Z. & Balogh, L., pp. 167–177. Vacratot, Hungary: HAS Institute of Ecology and Botany.Google Scholar
Chun, Y.J., Le Corre, V. & Bretagnolle, F. (2011) Adaptive divergence for a fitness-related trait among invasive Ambrosia artemisiifolia populations in France. Molecular Ecology 20: 1378–1388.Google Scholar
Clements, D.R. & Ditommaso, A. (2011) Climate change and weed adaptation: can evolution of invasive plants lead to greater range expansion thanforecasted?Weed Research 51: 227–240.Google Scholar
Colautti, R., Grigorovich, I.A. & MacIsaac, H.J. (2006) Propagule pressure: a null model for biological invasions. Biological Invasions 8: 1023–1037.Google Scholar
Deodatus, F. & Protsenko, L., eds. (2010) Creation of Ecological Corridors in Ukraine: A Manual on Stakeholder Involvement and Landscape-Ecological Modelling to Connect Protected Areas, Based on a Pilot in the Carpathians. Kyiv, Ukraine: State Agency for Protected Areas of the Ministry of Environmental Protection of Ukraine, Altenburg and Wymenga Ecological Consultants, InterEcoScience: 144 pp.Google Scholar
Dickens, S.J.M., Gerhardt, F. & Collinge, S.K. (2005) Recreational portage trails as corridors facilitating non-native plant invasions of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (USA). Conservation Biology 19: 1653–1657.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dlugosch, K.M. & Parker, I.M. (2008) Founding events in species invasions: genetic variation, adaptive evolution, and the role of multiple introductions. Molecular Ecology 17: 431–449.Google Scholar
Dormann, C.F., McPherson, J.M., Araújo, M.B., Bivand, R., Bolliger, J., Carl, G., Davies, R.G., Hirzel, A., Jetz, W., Kissling, W.D., Kühn, I., Ohlemüller, R., Peres-Neto, P.R., Reineking, B., Schröder, B., Schurr, F.M. & Wilson, R. (2007) Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data: a review. Ecography 30: 609–628.Google Scholar
Drake, B.G., Gonzalez-Meler, M.A. & Long, S.P. (1997) More efficient plants: a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2? Annual Review of Plant Physiology and Plant Molecular Biolology 48: 609–639.Google Scholar
Dudik, M., Phillips, S.J. & Schapire, R.E. (2007) Maximum entropy density estimation with generalized regularization and an application to species distribution modeling. Journal of Machine Learning Research 8: 1217–1260.Google Scholar
Dukes, J.S. (2000) Will increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration affect the success of invasive species? In Invasive Species in a Changing World, ed. Mooney, H.R. & Hobbs, R.J., pp. 95–113. Washington, USA: Island Press.Google Scholar
Dukes, J.S. & Mooney, H.A. (1999) Does global change increase the success of biological invaders? Trends in Ecology 14: 135–139.Google Scholar
Dullinger, S., Kleinbauer, I., Peterseil, J., Smolik, M. & Essel, M. (2009) Niche based distribution modelling of an invasive alien plant: effects of population status, propagule pressure and invasion history. Biological Invasions 11: 2401–2414.Google Scholar
Elith, J., Phillips, S.J., Hastie, T., Dudik, M., Chee, Y.E. & Yates, C.J. (2011) A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Diversity and Distributions 17: 43–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evangelista, P.H., Sunil, K., Stohlgren, T.J., Jarnevich, C.S., Crall, L.W., Norman, J.B. & Barnett, D.T. (2008) Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species. Diversity and Distribution 14: 808–817.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erfmeier, A., Böhnke, M. & Bruelheide, H. (2011) Secondary invasion of Acer negundo: the role of phenotypic responses versus local adaptation. Biological Invasions 13: 1599–1614.Google Scholar
Fielding, A.H. & Bell, J.F. (1997). A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation 24: 38–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fortin, M.J., Dale, M. R.T. & ver Hoef, J. (2006) Spatial analysis in ecology. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics [www document]. URL http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9780470057339.vas039/abstractGoogle Scholar
Foxcroft, L.C., Jarošík, V., Pyšek, P., Richardson, D.M. & Rouget, M. (2010) Protected-area boundaries as filters of plant invasions. Conservation Biology 16: 528–537.Google Scholar
Franklin, J. (2009) Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press: 318 pp.Google Scholar
Ficetola, G.F., Maiorano, L., Falcucci, A., Dendoncker, N., Boitani, L., Padoa-Schioppa, E., Miaud, C. & Thuiller, W. (2010) Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs. Global Change Biology 13: 476–485.Google Scholar
Genton, B.J., Shykoff, J.A. & Giraud, T. (2005) High genetic diversity in French invasive populations of common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, as a result of multiple sources of introduction. Molecular Ecology 14: 4275–4285.Google Scholar
Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N.E. (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135: 147–186.Google Scholar
Haider, S., Alexander, J., Dietz, H., Trepl, L., Edwards, P.J. & Kueffer, C. (2010) The role of bioclimatic origin, residence time and habitat context in shaping non-native plant distributions along an altitudinal gradient. Biological Invasions 12: 4003–4018.Google Scholar
Haider, S. & Kueffer, C. (2011) Pflanzeninvasionen in Gebirgen: (noch) keine Gefahr? Laufener Spezialbeiträge der Bayerischen Akademie für Naturschutz und Landschaftspflege (ANL) 1: 105–110.Google Scholar
Herenchuk, K.I., ed. (1968) Pryroda Ukrayinskykh Karpat [Nature of the Ukrainian Carpathians]. Lviv, Ukraine: Vydavnytstvo Lvivskoho Universytetu (in Ukrainian).Google Scholar
Hernandez, P.A., Graham, C.H., Master, L.L. & Albert, D.L. (2006) The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography 29: 773–785.Google Scholar
Hejda, M. & Pyšek, P. (2006) What is the impact of Impatiens glandulifera on species diversity of invaded riparian vegetation? Biological Conservation 132: 143–152.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965–1978.Google Scholar
Holubets, M.A., Honchar, M.T., Komendar, V.I., Kutsheraviy, V.A. & Odynak, J.P., eds (1988) Pryroda Ukrayinskykh Karpat [Nature of the Ukrainian Carpathians]. Kyiv, Ukraine: Naykova Dumka (in Ukrainian).Google Scholar
Hostert, P., Chaskovskyy, O., Knorn, J. & Kuemmerle, T. (2008) Ukrainian Carpathians Land Cover Map. Final Report. Geomatics Laboratory, Humboldt Universitaet zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.Google Scholar
Jarvis, A., Reuter, H.I., Nelson, A. & Guevara, E. (2006) Hole-filled seamless SRTM data V4. International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) [www document]. URL http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.Google Scholar
Jeschke, J.M. & Strayer, D.L. (2008) Usefulness of bioclimatic models for studying climate change and invasive species. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1134: 1–24.Google Scholar
Jongejans, E., Skarpaas, O. & Shea, K. (2008) Dispersal, demography and spatial population models for conservation and control management. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 9: 153–170.Google Scholar
Kabuce, N. & Priede, N. (2010) Heracleum sosnowskyi: invasive alien species fact sheet. NOBANIS Online Database of the North European and Baltic Network on Invasive Alien Species [www document]. URL http://www.nobanis.org/files/factsheets/Heracleum%20sosnowskyi.pdfGoogle Scholar
Keeton, W.S. & Crow, S.M. (2009) Sustainable forest management alternatives for the Carpathian mountain region: providing a broad array of ecosystem services. In: Ecological Economics and Sustainable Forest Management: Developing a Transdisciplinary Approach for the Carpathian Mountains, ed. Soloviy, I. & Keeton, W.S., pp. 109–126. Lviv, Ukraine: Ukrainian National Forestry University Press.Google Scholar
Kruhlov, I. (2008). Delimitation, metrization and classification of morphogenic ecoregions for the Ukrainian Carpathians. Ukrainian Geographical Journal 3: 59–68 (in Ukrainian).Google Scholar
Kuemmerle, T., Chaskovskyy, O., Knorn, J., Radeloff, V.C., Kruhlov, I., Keeton, W.S. & Hostert, P. (2009) Forest cover change and illegal logging in the Ukrainian Carpathians in the transition period from 1988 to 2007. Remote Sensing of Environment 113: 1194–1207.Google Scholar
Kuemmerle, T., Hostert, P., Radeloff, V.C., van der Linden, S., Perzanowski, K., Kruhlov, I. (2008) Cross-border comparison of post-socialist farmland abandonment in the Carpathians. Ecosystems 11: 614–628.Google Scholar
Lavergne, S. & Molofsky, J. (2007) Increased genetic variation and evolutionary potential drive the success of an invasive grass. Proceedings of the National Academy Of Sciences USA 104: 3883–3888.Google Scholar
Legendre, P. (1993) Spatial autocorrelation: trouble or new paradigm? Ecology 74: 1659–1673.Google Scholar
Levine, J.M., Adler, P.B. & Yelenik, S.G. (2004) A meta-analysis of biotic resistance to exotic plant invasions. Ecological Letters 7: 975–89.Google Scholar
Liu, C.R., Berry, P.M., Dawson, T.P. & Pearson, R.G. (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography 28: 385–393.Google Scholar
Lobo, J.M., Jimenez-Valverde, A. & Real, R. (2007) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17 1–7.Google Scholar
Mędrzycki, P. (2007) Acer negundo: invasive alien species fact sheet. NOBANIS. Online Database of the North European and Baltic Network on Invasive Alien Species [www document]. URL www.nobanis.org/files/factsheets/Acer_negundo.pdfGoogle Scholar
Murray, J.V., Stokes, K.E. & van Klinken, R.D. (2012) Predicting the potential distribution of a riparian invasive plant: the effects of changing climate, flood regimes and land-use patterns. Global Change Biology 18: 1738–1753.Google Scholar
Muñoz, A.A. & Cavieres, L.A. (2008) The presence of a showy invasive plant disrupts pollinator service and reproductive output in native alpine species only at high densities. Journal of Ecology 96: 459–67.Google Scholar
Nagel, J.M., Huxman, T.E., Griffin, K.L. & Smith, S.D. (2004) CO2 enrichment reduces the energetic cost of biomass construction in an invasive desert grass. Ecology 85: 100–106.Google Scholar
Nazarov, N., Cook, H.F. & Woodgate, G. (2001) Environmental issues in the post-communist Ukraine. Journal of Environmental Management 63: 71–86.Google Scholar
Nenzén, H.K., Swab, R.M., Keith, D.A. & Araújo, M.B. (2012) Demoniche: an R-package for simulating spatially-explicit population dynamics. Ecography 35: 1–4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pauchard, A., Kueffer, C., Dietz, H., Daehler, C.C., Alexander, J., Edwards, P.J., Arévalo, J.R., Cavieres, L., Guisan, A., Haider, S., Jakobs, G., McDougall, K., Millar, C.I., Naylor, B.J., Parks, C.G., Rew, L.J. & Seipel, T. (2009) Ain't no mountain high enough: plant invasions reaching new elevations. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7: 479–486.Google Scholar
Phillips, S.J., ed. (2010) A brief tutorial on Maxent. AT&T Labs-Research, Princeton University, USA [www document]. URL http://www.cs.princeton.edu/~schapire/maxent/tutorial/tutorial.docGoogle Scholar
Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire, R.E. (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259.Google Scholar
Phillips, S.J., Dudik, M., Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Lehmann, A., Leathwick, J., and Ferrier, S. (2009) Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data. Ecological Applications 19: 189–197.Google Scholar
Price, M.E., ed. (2006) Global Change in Mountain Regions. Duncow, UK: Sapiens Publishing: 337 pp.Google Scholar
Protopopova, V. & Shevera, M. (1998) Expansion of alien plants in settlements of the Tisa river basin. Thaiszia Journal of Botany 8: 33–42.Google Scholar
Protopopova, V.V., Shevera, M.V. & Mosyakin, S.V. (2006) Deliberate and unintentional introduction of invasive weeds: a case study of the alien flora of Ukraine. Euphytica 148: 17–33.Google Scholar
Prots, B. & Drescher, A. (2010) The role of dispersal agents for the spread of invasive plant Impatiens glandulifera Royle in Transcarpathia. Biological Systems (Bilogiczni Systemy) 2: 42–46.Google Scholar
Prots, B., Ivanenko, I., Yamelynets, T. & Stanciu, E., eds (2010) Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Areas Management (RAPPAM) for Ukraine. Lviv, Ukraine: Gryf Fond: 92 pp. (in Ukrainian).Google Scholar
Prots, B. & Kagalo, A., eds (2012) Catalog of Habitat Types of the Ukrainian Carpathians and Transcarpathian Lowland. Lviv, Ukraine: Mercator: 294 pp. (in Ukrainian).Google Scholar
Pyšek, P., Jarošík, V., Hulme, P.E., Kühn, I., Wilda, J., Arianoutsou, M., Bacher, S., Chiron, F., Didžiulis, V., Essl, F., Genovesi, P., Gherardi, F., Hejda, M., Kark, S., Lambdon, P., Desprez-Loustau, M.L., Nentwig, W., Pergl, J., Poboljšaj, K., Rabitsch, W., Roques, A., Roy, D., Shirley, S., Solarz, W., Vilà, M. & Winter, M. (2010) Disentangling the role of environmental and human pressures on biological invasions across Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy Of Sciences USA 108: 439–440.Google Scholar
Pyšek, P., Jarošík, V. & Kučera, T. (2002) Patterns of invasion in temperate nature reserves. Biological Conservation 104: 13–24.Google Scholar
Pyšek, P., Jarošík, V., Pergl, J. & Wild, J. (2011) Colonization of high altitudes by alien plants in the last two centuries. Proceedings of the National Academy Of Sciences USA 107: 12157–12162.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pyšek, P. & Prach, K. (1994) How important are rivers for supporting plant invasion? In: Ecology and Management of Invasive Riverside Plants, ed. de Waal, L.C., Child, L.E. & Brock, J.H., pp. 19–26. London, UK: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Pyšek, P. & Richardson, D.M. (2007) Traits associated with invasiveness in alien plants: where do we stand? In: Biological Invasions, ed. Nentwig, W., pp. 97–125. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.Google Scholar
R Development Core Team (2011) Stats Package. The R-Project. CRAN [www document]. URL http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/Google Scholar
Reinhart, D.P., Haroldson, M.A., Mattson, D.J. & Gunther, K.A. (2001) Effects of exotic species on Yellowstone's grizzly bears. Western North American Naturalist 61: 277–88.Google Scholar
Rouget, M. & Richardson, D.M. (2003) Inferring process from pattern in plant invasions: a semimechanistic model incorporating propagule pressure and environmental factors. The American Naturalist 162: 713–724.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Araujo, M.B., Carter, T.R., Dendoncker, N., Ewert, F., Hause, J.I., Kankaanpa, A., Leemans, R., Metzger, R.M., Schmit, C., Smith, P. & Tuck, G. (2006) A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 114: 57–68.Google Scholar
Sakai, A.K, Allendorf, F.W., Holt, J.S., Lodge, D.M., Molofsky, J., With, K.A., Baughman, S., Cabin, R.J., Cohen, J.E., Ellstrand, N.C., McCauley, D.E., O'Neil, P., Parker, I.M., Thompson, J.N. & Weller, S.G. (2001) The population biology of invasive species. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 32: 305–332.Google Scholar
Shea, K. & Chesson, P. (2002) Community ecology theory as a framework for biological invasions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17: 170–176.Google Scholar
Sitko, I. & Troll, M. (2008) Timberline changes in relation to summer farming in the Western Chornohora (Ukrainian Carpathians). Mountain Research and Development 28: 263–271.Google Scholar
Stohlgren, T., Pyšek, P., Kartesz, J., Nishino, M., Pauchard, A., Winter, M., Pino, J., Richardson, D., Wilson, J., Murray, B., Phillips, M., Ming-yang, L., Celesti-Grapow, L. & Font, X. (2011) Widespread plant species: natives versus aliens in our changing world. Biological Invasions 13: 1931–1944.Google Scholar
Smith, C., van Klinken, R.D., Seabrook, L. & McAlpine, C. (2012) Estimating the influence of land management change on weed invasion potential using expert knowledge. Diversity and Distributions 18: 818–831.Google Scholar
Swets, J.A. (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240: 1285–1293.Google Scholar
Tasienkevych, L.O., ed. (2008) Natural Flora of the Carpathians: Checklist of Vascular Plants. Lviv, Ukraine: State Museum Lviv: 308 pp. (in Ukrainian).Google Scholar
Thuiller, W., Richardson, D.M. & Midgley, G.F. (2007) Will climate change promote alien plant invasions? Ecological Studies 193: 198–211.Google Scholar
Tickner, D.P., Angold, P.G., Gurnell, A.M. & Mountford, J.O. (2011) Riparian plant invasions: hydrogeomorphological control and ecological impacts. Progress in Physical Geography 25: 22–52.Google Scholar
Török, K., Botta-Dukat, Z., Danczka, I., Németh, I., Kiss, J., Mihály, B. & Magyar, D. (2003) Invasion gateways and corridors in the Carpathian Basin: biological invasions in Hungary. Biological Invasions 5: 349–356.Google Scholar
Townsend, P.A. & Levey, D.J. (2005) An experimental test of whether habitat corridors affect pollen transfer. Ecology 86: 466–475.Google Scholar
Turnock, D. (2002) Ecoregion-based conservation in the Carpathians and the land-used implications. Land Use Policy 19: 47–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Verburg, P.H., de Koning, G.H.J., Kok, K., Veldkamp, A. & Bouma, J. (1999) A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecological Modelling 116: 45–61.Google Scholar
Wadsworth, R.A., Collingham, Y.C., Willis, S.G., Huntley, B. & Hulme, P.E. (2000). Simulating the spread and management of alien riparian weeds: are they out of control? Journal of Applied Ecology 37: 28–38.Google Scholar
Walter, J., Essl, F., Englisch, T. & Kiehn, M. (2005) Neophytes in Austria: habitat preferences and ecological effects. Neobiota 6: 13–25.Google Scholar
Weaver, T., Gustafson, D. & Lichthardt, J. (2001) Exotic plants in early and late seral vegetation of fifteen northern Rocky environments. Western North American Naturalist 61: 417–27.Google Scholar
Weber, E. & Jacobs, G. (2005) Biological flora of central Europe: Solidago gigantea Aiton. Flora 200: 109–118.Google Scholar
Webster, R., Holt, S. & Avis, C. (2001) The Status of the Carpathians: A Report Developed as Part of the Carpathian Ecoregion Initiative. World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) [www document]. URL http://www.carpates.org/docs/publications/status.pdfGoogle Scholar
Williamson, M., Pyšek, P., Jarosik, V. & Prach, K. (2005) On the rates and patterns of spread of alien plants in the Czech Republic, Britain, and Ireland. Ecoscience 12: 424–433.Google Scholar
Yates, C.J., McNeill, A., Elith, J. & Midgley, G.F. (2010) Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the South West Australian Floristic Region. Diversity and Distributions 16: 187–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zingstra, H.L., ed., Seffer, J., Lasak, R., Guttova, A., Baltzer, M., Bouwma, I., Walters, L.J., Smith, B., Kitnaes, K., Predoiu, G.E., Prots, B. & Sekulic, G. (2009) Towards an Ecological Network for the Carpathians.Wageningen, Netherlands: Wageningen International: 48 pp.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

M.SIMPSON Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download M.SIMPSON Supplementary Material(File)
File 215.7 KB