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Differential responses of Kashmir Himalayan threatened medicinal plants to anticipated climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 February 2022

Javaid M Dad  and
Irfan Rashid Open the ORCID record for Irfan Rashid [Opens in a new window]
Javaid M Dad
Affiliation:
Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar – 190 006, Jammu and Kashmir, India
Irfan Rashid*
Affiliation:
Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar – 190 006, Jammu and Kashmir, India
*
Author for Correspondence: Dr Irfan Rashid, Email: [email protected]
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Summary

As natural and anthropogenic forcings impel anticipated climate change, their effects on biodiversity and environmental sustainability are evident. A fundamental question that is often overlooked is: which changes in climate will cause the redistribution or extinction of threatened species? Here, we mapped and modelled the current and future geographical distributions of the four threatened medicinal plants – Aconitum heterophyllum Wall. ex Royle, Fritillaria cirrhosa D.Don, Meconopsis aculeata Royle and Rheum webbianum Royle – in Kashmir Himalaya using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. Species occurrence records were collated from detailed field studies carried out between the years 2010 and 2020. Four general circulation models for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios were chosen for future range changes over periods around 2050 (average for 2041–2060) and 2070 (average of 2061–2080). Notable differences existed between species in their responses to predictive environmental variables of temperature and precipitation. Increase in the most suitable habitat, except for A. heterophyllum and R. webbianum, were evident across Himalayan Mountain regions, while the Pir Panjal mountain region exhibited a decrease for all four species under future climate change scenarios. This study exemplifies the idiosyncratic response of narrow-range plants to expected future climate change and highlights conservation implications.

Keywords

biodiversityclimate changeendangered plantsKashmir HimalayaMaxEnt
Type
Research Paper
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 49 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 33 - 41
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Foundation for Environmental Conservation

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