This study predicts the impact of climate change on African agriculture. We use a generalized linear model (GLM) framework to estimate the relationship between the proportion of various Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) in a district and climate. Using three climate scenarios, we project how climate change will cause AEZs to shift, causing changes in acreage and net revenue per hectare of cropland. Our results predict that Africa will suffer heavy annual welfare losses by 2070–2100, ranging between US$14 billion and US$70 billion, depending on the climate scenario and cropland measure considered.

This paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China generated by the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with five scenarios in which greenhouse gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. The elasticity of China's emissions is estimated by pooling observations from all scenarios and comparing them with the elasticity of emissions in OECD countries. China has a higher elasticity than the OECD for a carbon tax lower than US$50 per ton of CO2-eq. For higher taxes, emissions in OECD economies are more elastic than in China. Our best guess indicates that China would need to introduce a tax equal to about US$750 per ton of CO2-eq in 2050 to achieve the Major Economies Forum goal set for mid-century. In our preferred estimates, the discounted cost of following the 2°C trajectory is equal to 5.4 per cent and to 2.7 per cent of GDP in China and the OECD, respectively.

The effects of four environmental policy options for the reduction of pollution emissions, i.e. taxes, emission standards, auctioned permits and freely allocated permits, are analyzed. The setup is a real option model where the amount of emissions is determined by solving the firm's profit maximization problem under each policy instrument. The regulator solves an optimal stopping problem in order to find the critical threshold for policy adoptions taking into account revenues from taxes and auctioned permits and government spending. In this framework we find the ranking of the alternative policy options in terms of their adoption lag and social welfare. We show that when the output demand is elastic, emission standards are preferred to freely allocated permits. Taxes and auctioned permits are always equivalent in terms of their adoption lag and social welfare, and also equivalent to emission standards when the regulator redistributes revenues.

This paper quantifies the effects of the determinants of intersectoral labor mobility and the effect of intersectoral labor mobility on deforestation in Ghana over the period 1970–2008. A cointegration and error correction modeling approach is employed. The empirical results show that labor mobility from the agricultural to the non-agricultural sector exerts negative effects on deforestation in Ghana in the long run and short run. Relative agricultural income exerts a significant negative effect on intersectoral labor mobility in the long run. Deforestation is influenced positively by population pressure, the price of fertilizer and rainfall, whereas access to irrigation infrastructure exerts a negative effect in the long run. In the short run, real producer prices of cocoa and maize exert significant positive effects on deforestation whereas access to irrigation infrastructure exerts a negative significant effect. Fruitful policy recommendations based on the empirical magnitudes and directions of these effects are made in this paper.

Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, due to its low-lying topography, high population density and widespread poverty. In this paper, we report on the development and results of an agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change. The main modules are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidences of extreme poverty, socioeconomic vulnerability, demography, and historical drought, cyclone and flood patterns. The results suggest likely changes in population densities across Bangladesh due to migration from the drought-prone western districts and areas vulnerable to cyclones and floods in the south, towards northern and eastern districts. The model predicts between 3 and 10 million internal migrants over the next 40 years, depending on the severity of the hazards. Some associated policy considerations are also discussed.

This study analyzes the costs borne by Malaysian palm oil mills (POMs) in order to reach standard levels. A number of studies have been conducted on Malaysian palm oil mills; however, none has obtained the marginal abatement cost (MAC) through an estimated total cost function. More particularly, as far as inflation is concerned, the effluent-related fee and effluent charge specified have not been revised within the past two decades. In addition, to our knowledge, there has not been any study comparing MAC to the mills of the two different methods of disposal, namely watercourse and on land. Our results show that, to force POMs to meet the standard, the effluent charge must be set higher, equaling the MAC. While the results show the existence of economies of scale in abatement activity, setting the effluent-related fee equal to the MAC may encourage mills to further abate their water pollution.