Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T08:59:11.920Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The potential benefits of agricultural adaptation to warming in China in the long run

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 December 2017

Kaixing Huang ,
Jinxia Wang ,
Jikun Huang  and
Christopher Findlay
Kaixing Huang
Affiliation:
School of Economics, Nankai University, Tianjin, China School of Economics, the University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
Jinxia Wang
Affiliation:
China Centre for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
Jikun Huang*
Affiliation:
China Centre for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
Christopher Findlay
Affiliation:
Faculty of the Professions, the University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Understanding the extent to which agriculture can adapt to climate change and the determinants of farmers' adaptive capacity are of paramount importance from a policy perspective. Based on household survey data from a large sample in rural China, the present article adopts a panel approach to estimate the potential benefits of long-run adaptation and to identify the determinants of farmers' adaptive capacity. The empirical results suggest that, for various model settings and climate change scenarios, long-run adaptations should mitigate one-third to one-half of the damages of warming on crop profits by the end of this century. These findings support the basic argument of the hedonic approach that omitting long-run adaptations will dramatically overestimate the potential damage of climate change. The paper also finds that household-level capital intensity and farmland size have significant effects on farmers' adaptive capacities.

Keywords

Climate changeadaptation capacityagriculture and ChinaQ15Q51Q54
Type
Research Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 23 , Issue 2 , April 2018 , pp. 139 - 160
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Burke, M and Emerick, K (2016) Adaptation to climate change: evidence from us agriculture. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8(3), 106–140.Google Scholar
Burke, M, Dykema, J, Lobell, DB, Miguel, E and Satyanath, S (2015) Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts. Review of Economics and Statistics 97(2), 461–471.Google Scholar
Chen, S, Chen, X and Xu, J (2016) Impacts of climate change on agriculture: evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 76, 105–124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, X, Hu, B and Yu, R (2005) Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in temperate eastern China. Global Change Biology 11(7), 1118–1130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cramer, WP and Solomon, AM (1993) Climatic classification and future global redistribution of agricultural land. Climate Research 3(1–2), 97–110.Google Scholar
Dell, M, Jones, BF and Olken, BA (2014) What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. Journal of Economic Literature 52(3), 740–98.Google Scholar
Deschênes, O and Greenstone, M (2007) The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. The American Economic Review 97(1), 354–385.Google Scholar
Falco, SD and Veronesi, M (2013) How can african agriculture adapt to climate change? A counterfactual analysis from Ethiopia. Land Economics 89(4), 743–766.Google Scholar
Fisher, AC, Hanemann, MW, Roberts, MJ and Schlenker, W (2012) The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather: comment. The American Economic Review 102(7), 3749–60.Google Scholar
Grothmann, T and Patt, A (2005) Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Global Environmental Change 15(3), 199–213.Google Scholar
Guiteras, R (2009) (2009) The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture Manuscript. College Park, Maryland: Department of Economics, University of Maryland.Google Scholar
Hanemann, MW (2000) Adaptation and its measurement. Climatic Change 45(3), 571–581.Google Scholar
Huang, J, Wang, Y and Wang, J (2015) Farmers' adaptation to extreme weather events through farm management and its impacts on the mean and risk of rice yield in China. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97(2), 602–617.Google Scholar
Huang, K (2015) The economic impacts of global warming on agriculture: the role of adaptation Working paper. University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.Google Scholar
Jin, L and Young, W (2001) Water use in agriculture in China: importance, challenges, and implications for policy. Water Policy 3(3), 215–228.Google Scholar
Kelly, MP and Adger, WN (2000) Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and Facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47(4), 325–352.Google Scholar
Kurukulasuriya, P and Mendelsohn, R (2008) Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2(1), 105–126.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB and Asner, GP (2003) Climate and management contributions to recent trends in US agricultural yields. Science 299(5609), 1032–1032.Google Scholar
Lobell, DB, Burke, MB, Tebaldi, C, Mastrandrea, MD, Falcon, WP and Naylor, RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319(5863), 607–610.Google Scholar
Matthews, RB, Kropff, MJ, Horie, T and Bachelet, D (1997) Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation. Agricultural Systems 54(3), 399–425.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, R, Nordhaus, WD and Shaw, D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. The American Economic Review 84(4), 753–771.Google Scholar
O'Brien, K, Sygna, L and Haugen, JE (2004) Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway. Climatic Change 64(1–2), 193–225.Google Scholar
Ramankutty, N, Foley, JA, Norman, J and Mcsweeney, K (2002) The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11(5), 377–392.Google Scholar
Schlenker, W, Hanemann, WM and Fisher, AC (2005) Will US agriculture really benefit from global warming? Accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach. The American Economic Review 95(1), 395–406.Google Scholar
Seo, SN (2013) An essay on the impact of climate change on US agriculture: weather fluctuations, climatic shifts, and adaptation strategies. Climatic Change 121(2), 115–124.Google Scholar
Seo, SN and Mendelsohn, R (2008) Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management. Agricultural Economics 38(2), 151–165.Google Scholar
Solomon, S (2007) Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC, vol. 4. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.Google Scholar
Tao, F and Zhang, Z (2011) Impacts of climate change as a function of global mean temperature: maize productivity and water use in China. Climatic Change 105(3–4), 409–432.Google Scholar
Thomas, A (2008) Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China. Global and Planetary Change 60(3), 306–326.Google Scholar
Wang, J, Mendelsohn, R, Dinar, A, Huang, J, Rozelle, S and Zhan, L (2009) The impact of climate change on China's agriculture. Agricultural Economics 40(3), 323–337.Google Scholar
Wang, J, Huang, J, Zhang, L and Li, Y (2014) Impacts of climate change on net crop revenue in North and South China. China Agricultural Economic Review 6(3), 358–378.Google Scholar
Wei, X, Declan, C, Erda, L, Yinlong, X, Hui, J, Jinhe, J, Lan, H and Yan, L (2009) Future cereal production in China: the interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 19(1), 34–44.Google Scholar
Zhang, S, Li, P, Yang, X, Wang, Z and Chen, X (2011) Effects of tillage and plastic mulch on soil water, growth and yield of spring-sown maize. Soil and Tillage Research 112(1), 92–97.Google Scholar
Zhou, L and Turvey, CG (2014) Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production. China Economic Review 28, 72–89.Google Scholar