Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dk4vv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T08:28:02.614Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Modeling the emissions–income relationship using long-run growth rates

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 April 2017

David I. Stern
Affiliation:
Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Acton, Australia, ACT 2601, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]
Reyer Gerlagh
Affiliation:
Economics Department, Tilburg University, The Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected]
Paul J. Burke
Affiliation:
Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Australia. E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract

The authors adopt a new approach to modeling the relationship between emissions and income using long-run per capita growth rates. This approach allows them to test multiple hypotheses about the drivers of per capita emissions in a single framework and avoid several of the econometric issues that have plagued the environmental Kuznets curve literature. They estimate models for carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions. They can reject restricted models that omit either growth or beta convergence effects. Although the term representing the environmental Kuznets effect is statistically significant for per capita carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions, the estimated income per capita turning points are out of the sample for the full data set.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aldy, J.E. (2006), ‘Per capita carbon dioxide emissions: convergence or divergence?’, Environmental and Resource Economics 33(4): 533555.Google Scholar
Angrist, J.D. and Pischke, J.-S. (2010), ‘The credibility revolution in empirical economics: how better research design is taking the con out of econometrics’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(2): 330.Google Scholar
Anjum, Z., Burke, P.J., Gerlagh, R., and Stern, D.I. (2014), ‘Modeling the emissions–income relationship using long-run growth rates’, CCEP Working Paper No. 1403, Centre for Climate and Economic Policy, Australian National University, Canberra.Google Scholar
Azomahou, T., Laisney, F., and Nguyen-Van, P. (2006), ‘Economic development and CO2 emissions: a nonparametric panel approach’, Journal of Public Economics 90(6–7): 13471363.Google Scholar
Barro, R.J. (2015), ‘Convergence and modernisation’, Economic Journal 125(585): 911942.Google Scholar
Bazzi, S. and Clemens, M.A. (2013), ‘Blunt instruments: avoiding common pitfalls in identifying the causes of economic growth’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5(2): 152186.Google Scholar
Beckerman, W. (1992), ‘Economic growth and the environment: whose growth? Whose environment?’, World Development 20: 481496.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanco, G., Gerlagh, R., Suh, S., et al. (2014), ‘Drivers, trends and mitigation’, inEdenhofer, O. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Bradford, D.F., Fender, R.A., Shore, S.H., and Wagner, M. (2005), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve: exploring a fresh specification’, B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 4(1): art. 5.Google Scholar
Breusch, T.S. and Pagan, A.R. (1979), ‘A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation’, Econometrica 47: 12871294.Google Scholar
Brock, W.A. and Taylor, M.S. (2010), ‘The green Solow model’, Journal of Economic Growth 15: 127153.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J. (2010), ‘Income, resources, and electricity mix’, Energy Economics 32(3): 616626.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J. (2012), ‘Climbing the electricity ladder generates carbon Kuznets curve downturns’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 56(2): 260279.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J. (2013), ‘The national-level energy ladder and its carbon implications’, Environment and Development Economics 18(4): 484503.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J. and Nishitateno, S. (2013), ‘Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: evidence for a large sample of countries’, Energy Economics 36: 363370.Google Scholar
Burke, P.J., Shahiduzzaman, M., and Stern, D.I. (2015), ‘Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: the rate and sources of economic growth matter’, Global Environmental Change 33: 109121.Google Scholar
Carson, R.T. (2010), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve: seeking empirical regularity and theoretical structure’, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 4(1): 323.Google Scholar
Carson, R.T., Jeon, Y., and McCubbin, D.R. (1997), ‘The relationship between air pollution and emissions: U.S. data’, Environment and Development Economics 2: 433450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chirinko, R.S., Fazzari, S.M., and Meyer, A.P. (2011), ‘A new approach to estimating production function parameters: the elusive capital–labor substitution elasticity’, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 29(4): 587594.Google Scholar
Chow, G.C. and Li, J. (2014), ‘Environmental Kuznets curve: conclusive econometric evidence for CO2 ’, Pacific Economic Review 19(1): 17.Google Scholar
Csereklyei, Z. and Stern, D.I. (2015), ‘Global energy use: decoupling or convergence?’, Energy Economics 51: 633641.Google Scholar
Dietz, T. and Rosa, E.A. (1997), ‘Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94: 175179.Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P.R. and Holdren, J.P. (1971), ‘Impact of population growth’, Science 171(3977): 12121217.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Evans, P. (1996), ‘Using cross-country variances to evaluate growth theories’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20(6–7): 10271049.Google Scholar
Evans, P. and Karras, G. (1996), ‘Convergence revisited’, Journal of Monetary Economics 37(2): 249265.Google Scholar
Ezcurra, R. (2007), ‘Is there cross-country convergence in carbon dioxide emissions?’, Energy Policy 35: 13631372.Google Scholar
Feenstra, R.C., Inklaar, R., and Timmer, M.P. (2015), ‘The next generation of the Penn World Table’, American Economic Review 105(10): 31503182.Google Scholar
Friedman, M. (1992), ‘Do old fallacies ever die?’, Journal of Economic Literature 30(4): 21292132.Google Scholar
Grossman, G.M. and Krueger, A.B. (1991), ‘Environmental impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement’, Working Paper No. 3914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Grossman, G.M. and Krueger, A.B. (1995), ‘Economic growth and the environment’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 110: 353377.Google Scholar
Harvey, A.C. (1976), ‘Estimating regression models with multiplicative heteroskedasticity’, Econometrica 44: 461466.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hauk, W.R. and Wacziarg, R. (2009), ‘A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions’, Journal of Economic Growth 14: 103147.Google Scholar
Hausman, J.A. (2001), ‘Mismeasured variables in econometric analysis: problems from the right and problems from the left’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(4): 5767.Google Scholar
Herrerias, M.J. (2013), ‘The environmental convergence hypothesis: carbon dioxide emissions according to the source of energy’, Energy Policy 61: 11401150.Google Scholar
Holtz-Eakin, D. and Selden, T.M. (1995), ‘Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth’, Journal of Public Economics 57(1): 85101.Google Scholar
Kaika, D. and Zervas, E. (2013a), ‘The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory – Part A: concept, causes and the CO2 emissions case’, Energy Policy 62: 13921402.Google Scholar
Kaika, D. and Zervas, E. (2013b), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory – Part B: critical issues’, Energy Policy 62: 14031411.Google Scholar
Kaya, Y. (1990), ‘Impact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth: interpretation of proposed scenarios’, Paper presented to the IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group, Paris.Google Scholar
List, J.A. and Gallet, C.A. (1999), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve: does one size fit all?’, Ecological Economics 31(3): 409423.Google Scholar
Maddala, G.S. (1977), Econometrics, Singapore: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Mazzanti, M. and Musolesi, A. (2013), ‘The heterogeneity of carbon Kuznets curves for advanced countries: comparing homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage/Bayesian estimators’, Applied Economics 45(27): 38273842.Google Scholar
Millimet, D.L., List, J.A., and Stengos, T. (2003), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve: real progress or misspecified models?’, Review of Economics and Statistics 85: 10381047.Google Scholar
Norman, C.S. (2009), ‘Rule of law and the resource curse: abundance versus intensity’, Environmental and Resource Economics 43: 183207.Google Scholar
Ordás Criado, C., Valente, S., and Stengos, T. (2011), ‘Growth and pollution convergence: theory and evidence’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 62: 199214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pasten, R. and Figueroa, E. (2012), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve: a survey of the theoretical literature’, International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics 6: 195224.Google Scholar
Pellegrini, L. and Gerlagh, R. (2006a), ‘Corruption, democracy, and environmental policy: an empirical contribution to the debate’, Journal of Environment & Development 15(3): 332354.Google Scholar
Pellegrini, L. and Gerlagh, R. (2006b), ‘Corruption and environmental policies: what are the implications for the enlarged EU?’, European Environment 16(3): 139154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettersson, F., Maddison, D., Acar, S., and Söderholm, P. (2013), ‘Convergence of carbon dioxide emissions: a review of the literature’, International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics 7: 141178.Google Scholar
Quah, D. (1993), ‘Galton's fallacy and the tests of the convergence hypothesis’, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95(4): 427443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rafaj, P., Amann, M., Siri, J., and Wuester, H. (2014), ‘Changes in European greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions 1960–2010: decomposition of determining factors’, Climatic Change 124(3): 477504.Google Scholar
Rosa, E.A. and Dietz, T. (1998), ‘Climate change and society: speculation, construction and scientific investigation’, International Sociology 13(4): 421455.Google Scholar
Shafik, N. (1994), ‘Economic development and environmental quality: an econometric analysis’, Oxford Economic Papers 46: 757773.Google Scholar
Smith, S.J., van Ardenne, J., Klimont, Z., Andres, R.J., Volke, A., and Arias, S.D. (2011), ‘Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005’, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11: 11011116.Google Scholar
Solow, R.M. (1956), ‘A contribution to the theory of economic growth’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 70(1): 6594.Google Scholar
Stefanski, R. (2013), ‘On the mechanics of the “Green Solow Model”’, OxCarre Research Paper No. 47, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Stern, D.I. (2004), ‘The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve’, World Development 32(8): 14191439.Google Scholar
Stern, D.I. (2005), ‘Beyond the environmental Kuznets curve: diffusion of sulfur-emissions-abating technology’, Journal of Environment and Development 14(1): 101124.Google Scholar
Stern, D.I. (2010), ‘Between estimates of the emissions-income elasticity’, Ecological Economics 69: 21732182.Google Scholar
Stern, D.I. (2012), ‘Modeling international trends in energy efficiency’, Energy Economics 34: 22002208.Google Scholar
Stern, D.I. and Common, M.S. (2001), ‘Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur?’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 41: 162178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strazicich, M.C. and List, J.A. (2003), ‘Are CO2 emission levels converging among industrial countries?’, Environmental and Resource Economics 24(3): 263271.Google Scholar
Tsurumi, T. and Managi, S. (2015), ‘Environmental Kuznets curve: economic growth and emission reduction’, in Managi, S. (ed.), The Economics of Green Growth: New Indicators for Sustainable Societies, Abingdon: Routledge, pp. 4970.Google Scholar
Vollebergh, H.R.J., Melenberg, B., and Dijkgraaf, E. (2009), ‘Identifying reduced-form relations with panel data: the case of pollution and income’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 58(1): 2742.Google Scholar
Wagner, M. (2008), ‘The carbon Kuznets curve: a cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics’, Resource and Energy Economics 30: 388408.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wagner, M. (2015), ‘The environmental Kuznets curve, cointegration and nonlinearity’, Journal of Applied Econometrics 30(6): 948967.Google Scholar
WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Westerlund, J. and Basher, S.A. (2008), ‘Testing for convergence in carbon dioxide emissions using a century of panel data’, Environmental and Resource Economics 40: 109120.Google Scholar
White, H.A. (1980), ‘A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity’, Econometrica 48: 817838.Google Scholar
World Bank (1992), World Development Report 1992: Development and the Environment, New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Stern supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Stern supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 236 KB