Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T08:04:28.627Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Australia: a land of missed opportunities?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 May 2017

David Greasley
Affiliation:
School of History, Classics and Archaeology, Edinburgh University, Edinburgh EH8 9JY, Scotland, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Eoin McLaughlin
Affiliation:
School of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, Scotland, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Nick Hanley
Affiliation:
School of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, Scotland, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Les Oxley
Affiliation:
Waikato Management School, University of Waikato, New Zealand. E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract

Comprehensive Investment (CI) may provide an indicator of future changes in a country's per capita consumption. The authors explore the utility of the CI indicator for Australia by constructing CI data since 1861 and by estimating their relationship with changes in future consumption over periods of 50 years ahead. The CI measures include changes in natural, produced and human capital, and make allowance for exogenous technological progress. The results are used to consider how Australia's natural capital exploitation influenced the consumption of future generations. Further, the authors gauge if low CI relative to other leading OECD countries resulted in lower consumption levels in Australia over time than feasible, had it saved more.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramovitz, M. (1986), ‘Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind’, Journal of Economic History 46: 385406.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arrow, K.J., Dasgupta, P., and Maler, K-G. (2003), ‘Evaluating projects and assessing sustainable development in imperfect economies’, Environmental and Resource Economics 26: 647685.Google Scholar
Arrow, K.J., Dasgupta, P., Goulder, L.H., Mumford, K.J., and Oleson, K. (2012), ‘Sustainability and the measurement of wealth’, Environment and Development Economics 17(3): 317353.Google Scholar
Ashiem, G. and Weitzman, M. (2001), ‘Does NNP growth indicate welfare improvement?’, Economic Letters 73: 233239.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Australian Bureau Statistics (ABS) (various years), Canberra: Australian System of National Accounts.Google Scholar
Australian Government Futures Fund (2014), [Available at] www.futurefund.gov.au.Google Scholar
Battelino, R. (2010), ‘Mining booms and the Australian economy’, Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, March Quarter.Google Scholar
Blainey, G. (1970), ‘A theory of mineral discovery: Australia in the nineteenth century’, Economic History Review 23: 298313.Google Scholar
Broadberry, S. and Irwin, D.A. (2007), ‘Lost exceptionalism? Comparative income and productivity in Australia and the UK, 1861–1948’, Economic Record 83: 262274.Google Scholar
Brown, R.P.C., Asafu-Adjaye, J., Draca, M., and Straton, A. (2005), ‘How useful is the genuine savings rate as a sustainability indicator for regions within countries? Australia and Queensland compared’, Australian Economic Review 38: 370388.Google Scholar
Butlin, M., Dixon, R., and Lloyd, P.J. (2015), ‘A statistical narrative’, in Ville, S. and Withers, G. (eds), The Cambridge Economic History of Australia, Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, pp. 465488.Google Scholar
Butlin, N.G. (1962), Australian Domestic Product, Investment and Foreign Borrowing 1861–1938/39, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cashin, P. and McDermott, J. (2000), ‘Riding the sheep's back: examining Australia's dependence on wool exports’, Economic Record 78: 249263.Google Scholar
Engle, R.F and Granger, C.W.J. (1987), ‘Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing’, Econometrica 55(2): 251276.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreira, S. and Vincent, J.R. (2005), ‘Genuine savings: leading indicator of sustainable development?’, Economic Development and Cultural Change 53: 737754.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferreira, S., Hamilton, K., and Vincent, J.R. (2008), ‘Comprehensive wealth and future consumption: accounting for population growth’, World Bank Economic Review 22(2): 233248.Google Scholar
Gammage, B. (2011), The Biggest Estate on Earth, Sydney: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
Greasley, D. (2015), ‘Industrializing Australia's natural capital’, in Ville, S. and Withers, G. (eds), The Cambridge Economic History of Australia, Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, pp. 150177.Google Scholar
Greasley, D. and Madsen, J. (2016), ‘The rise and fall of exceptional Australian incomes since 1800’, Australian Economic History Review; doi:10.1111/aehr.12111.Google Scholar
Greasley, D. and Oxley, L. (2010), ‘Cliometrics and time series econometrics’, Journal of Economic Surveys 24: 9701042.Google Scholar
Greasley, D., Hanley, N., Kunnas, J., McLaughlin, E., Oxley, L., and Warde, P. (2014), ‘Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 67: 171188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, K. and Clemens, M. (1999), ‘Genuine savings rates in developing countries’, World Bank Economic Review 13(2): 333356.Google Scholar
Hamilton, K. and Hartwick, J. (2005), ‘Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of Consumption’, Canadian Journal of Economics 38(2): 615621.Google Scholar
Hamilton, K. and Withagen, C. (2007), ‘Savings and the path of utility’, Canadian Journal of Economics 40: 703713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, K., Ruta, G., and Tajibaeva, L. (2006), ‘Capital accumulation and resource depletion: a Hartwick rule counterfactual’, Environmental and Resource Economics 34: 517533.Google Scholar
Hanley, N., Oxley, L., Greasley, D., McLaughlin, E., and Blum, M. (2016), ‘Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long-run trends’, Environmental and Resource Economics 63: 313338.Google Scholar
Hartwick, J.M. (1977), ‘Intergenerational equity and the investing of rents from exhaustible resources’, American Economic Review 67(5): 972974.Google Scholar
Homer, S. and Sylla, R. (2005), A History of Interest Rates, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Kozack, J. (2005), ‘Considerations in the choice of the appropriate discount rate for evaluating sovereign debt restructurings’, IMF Policy Discussion Paper No. 05/09, Washington, DC.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lindmark, M. and Acar, S. (2013), ‘Sustainability in the making: a historical estimate of Swedish sustainable and unsustainable development 1850–2000’, Ecological Economics 86: 176187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddison, A. (2001), The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Maddock, R. (2015), ‘Capital markets’, in Ville, S. and Withers, G. (eds), The Cambridge Economic History of Australia, Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, pp. 267286.Google Scholar
Madsen, J.B. (2015), ‘Australian economic growth and its drivers since European settlement’, in Ville, S. and Withers, G. (eds), The Cambridge Economic History of Australia, Melbourne: Cambridge University Press, pp. 2951.Google Scholar
Manuelli, R.E. and Seshadri, A. (2014), ‘Human capital and the wealth of nations’, American Economic Review 104(9): 27362762.Google Scholar
McLean, I.W. (2013), Why Australia Prospered: The Shifting Economic Sources of Economic Growth, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pearce, D.W. and Atkinson, G. (1993), ‘Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of weak sustainability’, Ecological Economics 8: 103110.Google Scholar
Pemberton, M. and Ulph, D. (2001), ‘Measuring income and measuring sustainability’, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 103: 2540.Google Scholar
Pezzey, J.C.V. (2004), ‘One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population’, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 48: 613631.Google Scholar
Pezzey, J.C.V. and Burke, P. (2013), ‘Measuring global sustainability using a precautionary valuation of CO2 emissions’, Paper presented at the Australian Association of Agricultural and Resource Economists' Conference, Sydney, Australia.Google Scholar
Pezzey, J.C.V., Hanley, N., Turner, K., and Tinch, D. (2006), ‘Comparing augmented sustainability measures for Scotland: is there a mismatch?’, Ecological Economics 57: 7074.Google Scholar
Pope, D. (1986), ‘Australian money and banking statistics’, Source Papers in Economic History No. 11, Australia National University, Canberra.Google Scholar
Randall, A. (2008), ‘Is Australia on a sustainability path? Interpreting the clues’, Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 52: 7795.Google Scholar
Syed, A., Grafton, Q., and Kalirajan, K. (2013), ‘Productivity in the Australian mining sector’, BREE Discussion Paper Series No. 13.01, Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, Commonwealth of Australia.Google Scholar
UNEP (2012), United National Environmental Programme, [Available at] www.unep.org.Google Scholar
UNU-IHDP and UNEP (2014), Inclusive Wealth Report 2014. Measuring Progress toward Sustainability, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Weitzman, M. (1997), ‘Sustainability and technical progress’, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 91(1): 113.Google Scholar
Weitzman, M. (1999), ‘Pricing the limits to growth from minerals depletion’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(2): 691706.Google Scholar
World Bank (2006), Where is the Wealth of Nations? Measuring Capital for the 21st Century, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
World Bank (2011), The Changing Wealth of Nations: Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Wright, G. and Czelusta, J. (2002), ‘Resource-based economic growth, past and present’, Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Greasley supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Greasley supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 579.4 KB