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Agricultural drought impacts on crops sector and adaptation options in Mali: a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 June 2019

Jean-Marc Montaud
Jean-Marc Montaud*
Affiliation:
Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques, Bayonne, France
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

In Mali's current context, where the crops sector is particularly exposed and vulnerable to agricultural drought, this study assesses the economy-wide impacts of such events and the potential effectiveness of some adaptation strategies. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we conduct counterfactual simulations of various scenarios accounting for different levels of intensity and frequency of droughts over a 15-year period. We first show how mild, moderate and intense droughts currently experienced by the country affect its economic performance and considerably degrade the welfare of its households. We also show how these negative impacts could be aggravated in the future by the likely increased number of intense droughts threatened by global climate change. However, we finally show that there appears to be some room for Mali to maneuver in terms of drought-risk management policies, such as fostering the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties, improving drought early warning systems or extending irrigation capacities.

Keywords

agricultureclimate variabilityfood securitygeneral equilibriumMali
Type
Review Article
Information
Environment and Development Economics , Volume 24 , Issue 5 , October 2019 , pp. 506 - 528
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

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