Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-16T07:27:55.395Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The voting paradox … with a single voter? Implications for transitivity in choice under risk

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 March 2019

David Butler*
Affiliation:
Griffith Business School, Building G42, Parklands Drive, Southport, QLD 9726, Australia
Pavlo Blavatskyy
Affiliation:
Montpellier Business School, Montpellier Research in Management, 2300, Avenue des Moulins, 34185 Montpellier Cedex 4, France
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

Abstract

The voting paradox occurs when a democratic society seeking to aggregate individual preferences into a social preference reaches an intransitive ordering. However it is not widely known that the paradox may also manifest for an individual aggregating over attributes of risky objects to form a preference over those objects. When this occurs, the relation ‘stochastically greater than’ is not always transitive and so transitivity need not hold between those objects. We discuss the impact of other decision paradoxes to address a series of philosophical and economic arguments against intransitive (cyclical) choice, before concluding that intransitive choices can be justified.

Type
Article
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Allais, M. 1953. Le comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l’ecole Americaine. Econometrica 21, 503546.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anand, P. 1987. Are the preference axioms really rational? Theory and Decision 23, 189214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anand, P. 1990. Interpreting axiomatic (decision) theory. Annals of Operations Research 23, 91101.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anand, P. 1993a. The philosophy of intransitive preference. Economic Journal 103, 337346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anand, P. 1993b. Foundations of Rational Choice under Risk. Oxford: Clarendon Press, XI161.Google Scholar
Arieli, A., Ben-Ami, Y. and Rubinstein, A. 2009. Fairness motivations and procedures of choice between lotteries as revealed through eye movements. Mimeo.Google Scholar
Arrow, K. 1951. Social Choice and Individual Values. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Arrow, K. 1963. Social Choice and Individual Values (2nd edn). New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Baron, J. 2008. Thinking and Deciding (4th edn). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Blavatskyy, P. 2006. Axiomatization of a preference for a probable winner. Theory and Decision 60, 1733.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blyth, C. 1972. Some probability paradoxes in choice from among random alternatives. Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, 366373.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, D. and Hey, J. 1987. Experimental economics: an introductory survey. Empirica: Austrian Economic Papers 2, 157186.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, D. and Loomes, G. 2007. Imprecision as an account of the preference reversal phenomenon. American Economic Review 97, 277297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, D. and Loomes, G. 2011. Imprecision as an account of violations of independence and betweenness. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 80, 511522.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, D. and Pogrebna, G. 2018. Predictably intransitive preferences. Judgment and Decision Making 13, 217236.Google Scholar
Campbell, D. and Kelly, J. 2002. Chapter 1: impossibility theorems in the Arrovian framework. In Handbook of Social Choice and Welfare, Vol. 1., eds. Arrow, K., Sen, A. and Suzumura, K., 3594. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Condorcet, n.c. 1785. Essai sur l’application de l’analyse a la probabilite des decisions rendues a la pluralite des voix. Paris: Imprimerie Royale.Google Scholar
Conrey, B., Gabbard, J., Grant, K., Liu, A. and Morrison, K. 2016. Intransitive dice. Mathematics Magazine 89, 133143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cubitt, R. and Sugden, R. 2001. On money pumps. Games and Economic Behavior 37, 121160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davidson, D., McKinsey, J. and Suppes, P. 1955. Outlines of a formal theory of value, I. Philosophy of Science 22, 140160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Meyer, F. and Plott, C. 1970. The probability of a cyclical majority. Econometrica 38, 345354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dhar, R. and Simonson, I. 2003. The effect of forced choice on choice. Journal of Marketing Research 40, 146160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishburn, P. 1982. Non-transitive measurable utility. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 26, 3167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishburn, P. 1991. Non-transitive preferences in decision theory. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4, 113134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flood, M. 1952. Some Experimental Games. Rand Corporation report RM-789-1. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.Google Scholar
Gardner, M. 1970. The paradox of nontransitive dice and the elusive principle of indifference. Scientific American 223, 110114.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Handfield, T. 2016. Essentially comparative value does not threaten transitivity. Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 5, 312.Google Scholar
Handfield, T. and Rabinowicz, W. 2018. Incommensurability and vagueness in spectrum arguments: options for saving transitivity of betterness. Philosophical Studies 175, 23732387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herne, K. 1999. The effects of decoy gambles on individual choice. Experimental Economics 2, 3140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J., Payne, J. and Puto, C. 1982. Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis. Journal of Consumer Research 9, 9098.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, J. and Puto, C. 1983. Market boundaries and product choice: illustrating attraction and substitution effects. Journal of Consumer Research 10, 3144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47, 263291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kavka, G. 1991. Is individual choice less problematic than collective choice? Economics and Philosophy 7, 143165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kontek, K. and Lewandowski, M. 2017. Range-dependent utility. Management Science 64, 28122832.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lichtenstein, S. and Slovic, P. 1971. Reversals of preference between bids and choices in gambling decisions. Journal of Experimental Psychology 89, 4655.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loomes, G. and Sugden, R. 1982. Regret theory: an alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal 92, 805824.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Loomes, G. and Sugden, R. 1987. Some implications of a more general form of regret theory. Journal of Economic Theory 41, 270287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Louie, K., Haw, M. and Glimcher, P. 2013. Normalization is a general neural mechanism for context-dependent decision making. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 110, 61396144.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Louie, K., Glimcher, P. and Webb, R. 2015. Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioural decision-making. Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences 5, 9199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luce, D. 1959. Individual Choice Behavior: A Theoretical Analysis. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Luce, R. and Raiffa, H. 1957. Games and Decisions. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Noguchi, T. and Stewart, N. 2014. In the attraction, compromise and similarity effects, alternatives are repeatedly compared in pairs on single dimensions. Cognition 132, 4456.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ray, P. 1973. Independence from irrelevant alternatives. Econometrica 41, 987991.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Regenwetter, M., Dana, J. and Davis-Stober, C. 2011. Transitivity of preferences. Psychological Review 118, 4256.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Riker, W. 1982. Liberalism against Populism. San Francisco, CA: W.H. Freeman.Google Scholar
Rubinstein, A. and Segal, U. 2012. On the likelihood of cyclic comparisons. Journal of Economic Theory 147, 24832491.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russo, J. and Dosher, B. 1983. Strategies for multi-attribute binary choice. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 9, 676696.Google Scholar
Saari, D. 1995. A chaotic exploration of aggregation paradoxes. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics 37, 3752.Google Scholar
Savage, L. J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons Google Scholar
Simonson, I. and Tversky, A. 1992. Choice in context: tradeoff contrast and extremeness aversion. Journal of Marketing Research 29, 281295.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steinhaus, H. and Trybula, S. 1959. On a paradox in applied probabilities. Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences 7, 6769.Google Scholar
Stewart, N., Reimers, S. and Harris, A. 2015. On the origin of utility, weighting and discount functions: how they get their shapes and how to change their shapes. Management Science 61, 687705.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sugden, R. 1996. Review of ‘Foundations of Rational Choice under Risk’. Utilitas 8, 254255.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Temkin, L. 2012. Rethinking the Good: Moral Ideals and the Nature of Practical Reasoning. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trybula, S. 1961. On the paradox of three random variables. Applicationes Mathematicae 5, 321332.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. 1969. Intransitivity of preferences. Psychological Review 76, 3148.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. and Simonson, I. 1993. Context-dependent preferences. Management Science 30, 11791189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Usiskin, Z. 1964. Max-min probabilities in the voting paradox. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 35, 857862.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O.. 1944. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Voorhoeve, A. 2013. Vaulting intuition: Temkin’s critique of transitivity. Economics and Philosophy 29, 409423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar