Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T17:16:32.607Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Keynes's Theory of Probability and Its Relevance to His Economics: Three Theses

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 October 2009

Allin Cottrell
Allin Cottrell
Affiliation:
Wake Forest University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

One calls a lot of things propositions. If one sees this, then one can discard the idea Russell and Frege had that logic is a science of certain objects – propositions, functions, the logical constants – and that logic is like a natural science such as zoology and talks about these objects as zoology talks of animals. Like a natural science, it could supposedly discover certain relations. For example, Keynes claimed to discover a probability relation which was like implication, yet not quite implication. But logic is a calculus, not a natural science, and in it one can make inventions but not discoveries.

Giving grounds, however, justifying the evidence, comes to an end; – but the end is not certain propositions' striking us immediately as true, i.e. it is not a kind of seeing on our part; it is our acting, which lies at the bottom of the language-game. (Wittgenstein, 1969, §204)

Type
Essays
Information
Economics & Philosophy , Volume 9 , Issue 1 , April 1993 , pp. 25 - 51
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1993

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Ambrose, Alice (editor). 1979. Wittgenstein's Lectures, Cambridge, 1932–1935. From the notes of Alice Ambrose and Margaret Macdonald. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Austin, J. L. 1970. Philosophical Papers, second edition. Edited by Urmson, J. O. and Warnock, G. J.. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Ayer, A. J. 1972. Probability and Evidence. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateman, Bradley W. 1987. “Keynes's Changing Conception of Probability.” Economics and Philosophy 3:97–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateman, Bradley W. 1991. “Hutchison, Keynes, and Empiricism.” Review of Social Economy XLIX:20–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bateman, Bradley W., and Davis, John B. (editors). 1991. Keynes and Philosophy, Essays on the Origin of Keynes's Thought. Aldershot: Edward Elgar.Google Scholar
Begg, David. 1982. The Rational Expectations Revolution in Macroeconomics. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Buiter, Willem. 1980. “The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss.” Economic Journal 90:34–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carabelli, Anna. 1988. On Keynes's Method. London: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jonathan L. 1986. “Twelve Questions about Keynes's Concept of Weight.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 37:263–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, John B. 1991. “Keynes's Critiques of Moore: Philosophical Foundations of Keynes's Economics.” Cambridge Journal of Economics 15:61–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dilman, Ilham. 1973. Induction and Deduction, A Study in Wittgenstein. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Gillies, D. A. 1973. An Objective Theory of Probability. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
Gillies, D. A. 1988. “Keynes as a Methodologist.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 39:117–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodman, Nelson. 1983. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast, fourth edition. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Hacking, Ian 1980. “The Theory of Probable Inference: Neyman, Pierce and Braithwaite.” In Science, Belief and Behaviour: Essays in Honor of R. B. Braithwaite, edited by Mellor, D. H., pp. 141–60. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1937. “The General Theory of Employment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics LI:209–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1963. Essays in Biography. Edited by Keynes, Geoffrey. New York: Norton.Google Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1973 [1921]. A Treatise on Probability. Vol. VIII of Collected Works. London: Macmillan for the Royal Economic Society.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keynes, John Maynard. 1979. Vol. XXIX of Collected Works. The General Theory and After: A Supplement. London: Macmillan for the Royal Economic Society.Google Scholar
Laidler, David. 1986. “The New-Classical Contribution to Macroeconomics.” Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review 156:27–55.Google Scholar
Lawson, Tony, and Pesaran, Hashem (editors). 1985. Keynes's Economics: Methodological Issues. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Leijonhufvud, Axel. 1981. Information and Coordination: Essays in Macroeconomic Theory. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Leijonhufvud, Axel. 1983. “What Would Keynes Have Thought of Rational Expectations?” In Keynes and the Modern World, edited by Worswick, David and Trevithick, James, pp. 179–205. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lockwood, Michael. 1989. Mind, Brain and the Quantum. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H. 1981. “Keynes's General Theory: A Different Perspective.” Journal of Economic Literature XIX:36–64.Google Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H. 1988. Keynes's Monetary Tfieory: A Different Interpretation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Minsky, Hyman P. 1975. John Maynard Keynes. New York: Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mises, R. von. 1957. Probability, Statistics, and Truth. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Moore, G. E. 1962. Commonplace Book 1919–1953. London: George Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
O'Donnell, Rod M. 1989. Keynes: Philosophy, Economics and Politics. New York: St. Martin's Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Penrose, Roger. 1989. The Emperor's New Mind. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsey, Frank P. 1931. The Foundations of Mathematics. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.Google Scholar
Runde, Jochen. 1990. “Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments.” Economics and Philosophy 6:275–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Runde, Jochen. 1991. “Keynesian Uncertainty and the Instability of Beliefs.” Review of Political Economy 3:124–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobin, James. 1958. “Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk.” Review of Economic Studies, 67:65–86. Reprinted in Tobin and Hester, 1967.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobin, James. 1980. Asset Accumulation and Economic Activity. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
Tobin, James, and Hester, Donald (editors). 1967. Risk Aversion and Portfolio Choice. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Weisman, Dennis L. 1984. “Tobin on Keynes: A Suggested Interpretation.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics VI:411–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wittgenstein, Ludwig. 1953. Philosophical Investigations. Translated by Anscombe, G. E. M.. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Wittgenstein, Ludwig. 1969. On Certainty. Translated by Paul, Denis and Anscombe, G. E. M.. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Wittgenstein, Ludwig. 1974. Philosophical Grammar. Translated by Kenny, A.. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar