Trending Multiple Time Series: Editor's Introduction

Abstract

One of the more obvious empirical characteristics of macroeconomic time series is their tendency to grow, or trend, over time. Dealing with this trendnonstationarity in models of multiple time series has been a major agenda of econometric research for much of the last decade and has produced an enormous literature. Equally, the goal of developing a general asymptotic theory of inference for stochastic processes has been a long-standing concern of probabilists and statisticians. Finally, understanding and modeling trend processes and cyclical activity lie at the nerve center of much of modern macroeconomics. As a consequence, research on nonstationary time series has brought statisticians, econometricians, and macroeconomists close together in productive ways that simply could not have been anticipated 10 years ago.

The focus of this symposium issue of Econometric Theory is inference from multiple time series data with trends, and the symposium brings together researchers with these diverse interests. The papers included in the issue were, with two exceptions, presented at a conference called “Trending Multiple Time Series,” held at Yale University in the fall of 1993 under the financial sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. All of the papers were written by conference participants. The conference was the fourth in a series of small conferences at Yale on the general theme of “Applications of Functional Limit Theory to Econometrics and Statistics.”