Earth has been habitable through most of its history, but the anthropogenically mediated greenhouse effect, if sufficiently strong, can threaten Earth's long-standing equability. This paper's main aim is to determine the strength of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect (the climate sensitivity) from observational data and basic physics alone, without recourse to the parameterisations of earth-system models and their inevitable uncertainties. A key finding is that the sensitivity can be constrained by harmonising historical records of land and ocean temperatures with observations of potential climate-change drivers in a non-steady state, energy-balance equation via a least-squares optimisation. The global temperature increase, for a CO2 doubling, is found to lie (95 % confidence limits) between 3.0oC and 6.3oC, with a best estimate of +4oC. Under a business-as-usual scenario, which assumes that there will be no significant change in people's attitudes and priorities, Earth's surface temperature is forecast to rise by 7.9oC over the land, and by 3.6oC over the oceans, by the year 2100. Global temperature rise has slowed in the last decade, leading some to question climate predictions of substantial 21st-Century warming. A formal runs test, however, shows that the recent slowdown is part of the normal behaviour of the climate system.

The Galway Granite Complex is unique among the British and Irish Caledonian granitoid terranes, as it records punctuated phases of magmatism from ∼425–380 Ma throughout the latest phase of the Caledonian Orogeny. Remapping of the Omey Pluton, the oldest member of this suite, has constrained the spatial distribution and contact relationships of the pluton's three main facies relative to the nature of the host rock structure. The external contacts of the pluton are mostly concordant to the limbs and hinge of the Connemara Antiform. New AMS data show that a subtle concentric outward dipping foliation is present, and this is interpreted to reflect pluton inflation during continued magma ingress. Combined field, petrographic and AMS data show that two sets of shear zones (NNW–SSE and ENE–WSW) cross-cut the concentric foliation, and that these structures were active during the construction of the pluton. We show that regional sinistral transpression at ∼420 Ma would have caused dilation along the intersection of these two fault sets, and suggest that this facilitated centralised magma ascent. Lateral emplacement was controlled by the symmetry of the Connemara Antiform to ultimately produce a discordant phacolith. We propose that regional sinistral transpression at ∼420 Ma influenced the siting of smaller intrusions over NNW–SSE faults, and that the later onset of regional transtension caused larger volumes of magma to intrude along the E–W Skird Rocks Fault at ∼400 Ma.

Four kinds of robust elements have been recognised in Amorphognathus quinquiradiatus Moskalenko, 1977 (in Kanygin et al. 1977) from the early Late Ordovician of Siberia, indicating that at least 17 elements were present in the apparatus, one of them similar to the P1 element of the Early Silurian Distomodus. The new generic name Moskalenkodus is proposed for these conodonts with a pterospathodontid-like S series element morphology. This implies that the related Distomodus, Pterospathodus and Gamachignathus lineages had a long cryptic evolutionary history, probably ranging back to the early Ordovician, when they split from the lineage of Icriodella, having a duplicated M location in common. The balognathid Promissum, with a 19-element apparatus, may have shared ancestry with Icriodella in Ordovician high latitudes, with Sagittodontina, Lenodus, Trapezognathus and Phragmodus as possible connecting links. The pattern of the unbalanced contribution of Baltoniodus element types to samples suggests that duplication of M and P2 series elements may have been an early event in the evolution of balognathids. The proposed scenario implies a profound transformation of the mouth region in the evolution of conodonts. The probable original state was a chaetognath-like arrangement of coniform elements; all paired and of relatively uniform morphology. This was modified at the origin of protopanderodontids by the introduction of a medial S0 element, which resulted in the separation of the exposed unit of M and S series elements from the P series elements hidden in the throat. A rotation of the S series elements to an almost horizontal position in early prioniodontids may have promoted duplication of the M element pair. In Gamachignathus, Icriodella and Pterospathodus lineages, these elements are differentiated morphologically. Subsequent anteriorward bending of the P element series caused duplication of the balognathid P2 element pair, but they remained undifferentiated, even in the otherwise elaborate Promissum. The whole clade of conodonts with supernumerary element pairs in the apparatus has its roots in high latitudes of the Ordovician.

Coal and hydrocarbons have been exploited from the Carboniferous rocks of the Midland Valley for over 200 years. This work characterises organic matter from the Mississippian black shales of the Midland Valley from Wardie, Scotland. Biomarker analysis allowed the estimation of the degree of microbial transformation of organic matter, type of kerogen and thermal maturity during hydrocarbon generation. Parameters based on the biomarker indicators confirm a generally mixed type II/III kerogen. However, some samples contain mostly terrestrial organic matter, whilst others contain predominantly marine organic matter, which shows that the sedimentary environment varied greatly throughout the basin. The presence of gammacerane suggests water column stratification and anoxic conditions. Organic matter was much better protected from post-depositional alteration within the concretions, where higher TOC (total organic carbon) and TS (total sulphur) contents occur, than in the surrounding sediments. This can be induced by very early diagenetic formation of these concretions which protected organic matter from late diagenetic degradation.

Estimated values of vitrinite reflectance (Rc, Rcs) show that the sedimentary rocks reached the catagenesis stage. Most samples exhibit maximum organic matter maturation temperatures of around c60–90°C. However, stable isomers of phenyldibenzo[b,d]thiophene detected in some samples indicate that in some cases post-depositional hydrothermal activity affected maturation of organic matter increasing temperatures to as high as c174°C.