This paper sets the wider global and Scottish context for this Special Issue of EESTRSE. Climate change is inextricably linked to wellbeing, security and sustainability. It poses a fundamental challenge to the way we organise society and our relationship to the exploitation of the Earth's resources. Rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, linked to burning fossil fuels and land use, present a major risk of climate change, with serious but uncertain impacts emerging at a regional scale. A new industrial revolution is needed to achieve energy security and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with energy efficiency and energy production emitting low or no CO2 at its heart. At present, on a global scale, there is a mismatch between the emphasis on economic growth and the need to reduce emissions and achieve a sustainable use of resources. A more sustainable blueprint for the future is emerging in Europe and Scotland has much to gain economically and socially from this change. Scotland's ambitious emission reduction targets (42% cut by 2020 and 80% by 2050) are achievable, but require major commitment and investment. Despite success in cutting emissions from activities within Scotland, Scotland's consumption-based emissions rose by 11% in 1996–2004.

This paper reviews the key evidence for global climate change and outlines the trends of climate change in Scotland, the potential impacts and the implications for policy makers. Human activity is causing a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and there is little doubt that this is contributing to global warming. There is greater uncertainty about how this global trend will play out at a regional scale and also how close we are to climatic tipping points. Instrumental records document the overall trends and variability in Scotland's climate since 1914. These show that since the 1960s, Scotland's average climate has proved to be wetter (especially in the west) and warmer. This trend is expected to continue throughout the 21st Century with, on average, hotter and drier summers and milder and wetter winters. However, extreme events will continue to affect Scotland, as they have always done, and the severity and frequency of these events may increase. Sea levels will continue to rise modestly, especially in the Outer Hebrides and the Northern Isles. Some of the uncertainty in climatic predictions is captured in the probabilistic outputs of Defra's UK Climate Projections 2009 programme. An initial attempt to assess the likely impacts of climate change is provided in Defra's 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment, which includes a report specific to Scotland. Whilst most of the risks involve negative impacts, with increased flooding and loss of biodiversity being especially adverse, there are also positive impacts with associated opportunities, especially in terms of increased agricultural production and larger numbers of tourists. The report on Scotland will allow different groups of policy makers to refine the risks associated with specific activities. But given the fragile nature of many of the metrics underpinning the report, caution should be exercised in using it to frame climate adaptation strategies.

This paper sets out some of the economic factors underpinning Scotland's move to a low-carbon economy. Economics matters, since it addresses the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the costs of climate change impacts, and the economic factors that motivate individuals' behaviour and the behaviour of businesses. All of these are important in understanding the barriers to meeting targets and to successful adaptation, and in thinking about how these barriers can be lifted. We discuss the relative merits of market mechanisms such as carbon taxes and cap-and-trade, the cost of including additional targets, and the issue of counting carbon embedded in imported goods. An efficient way of achieving carbon reductions is to widen the scope of carbon trading to include forestry, transport and agriculture. Energy efficiency in businesses and households and adaptation to climate change are a priority, because the benefits will be felt in the short term and at the local level.

Although Scottish and UK governments have ambitious targets for climate change mitigation, and there is increased understanding of the risks to future prosperity of fossil fuel energy dependence, limited practical progress has been made by the advanced economies in reducing carbon emissions, especially when embedded emissions in imported consumer goods are taken into account. Significant contributory factors are the social and cultural values, beliefs and practices, which result in risks of climate change being regarded as secondary to short-term pressures for economic growth and increased consumer spending. The result is that climate change and transition to a low-carbon society become ‘back of the mind’ issues. Current policy designed to lower carbon emissions from household consumption treats society as a series of individuals, each responding rationally to market incentives to maximise short-term personal gain. ‘Greener choices’ are incentivised and encouraged by social marketing, but, at best, this approach will achieve only very gradual change. An alternative model treats society as comprising historically evolving, dynamic social systems and cultures that are capable of dealing with transformational change, when there is a shared understanding of the reasons for acting. From this perspective, society can implement step changes in behaviour through collaborative action in the interests of the longer-term common good. Political momentum can be gathered for new legislative and/or taxation measures, as for example in the case of the strong programme for tobacco control legislation in Scotland and the UK. By focusing on social and technical infrastructures, the built environment, and the regeneration of local economies, rather than on individual behaviours, government investment can have far greater impact. A distinctively Scottish narrative for a low-carbon society can create momentum for transition through shared understanding of the risks of climate change, and its meanings for social life, cultures, economic relationships and values.

Land use and the management of our natural resources such as soils and water offer great opportunities to sequester carbon and mitigate the effects of climate change. Actions on forestry, soil carbon and damaged peatlands each have the potential to reduce Scottish emissions in 2020 by hundreds of thousands of tonnes. Most actions to reduce emissions from land use have beneficial effects on other ecosystem services, so if we can cut emissions we can in many circumstances improve the environment. The cost of reducing emissions through land use change can be low in relation to other means of cutting emissions. The Scottish Land Use Strategy and the Ecosystem Approach it calls for, employing the concept of ecosystem services, offers a way of balancing environmental, social and economic demands on the land. Scotland's land, soils, forests and waters are all likely to be significantly altered by future climate change. Each of these components of the land-based environment offers opportunities for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The emerging new imperatives for securing food, water and energy at a global level are equally important for Scotland, and interact with the need for environmental security and for dealing with climate change.

In view of the challenge posed by climate change and the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, The Royal Society of Edinburgh Inquiry (2011) examined the barriers making it difficult for Scotland to change to a low-carbon society. The single most important finding is that, whilst widely desired, change is held back by the lack of coherence and integration of policy at different levels of governance. There is activity at the level of the EU, UK Government, Scottish Government, local authorities, local communities, households and civil society, but there is often a disconnection between policies at different levels. This impedes progress and also leads to mistrust among the general public. This paper brings together the background to ten primary recommendations featured in the Inquiry addressing the principal barriers. Above all, it is important to integrate the activities within city regions and to exploit opportunities in local communities. Reflecting on the Inquiry findings, we stress the economic, social and environmental opportunities to be gained from a low-carbon society and outline the step changes that need to take place within governance, city regions and local authorities and civil society.