Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T21:37:58.643Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

FORECASTING AND PREDICTING THE ELECTION OF AN AFRICAN AMERICAN PRESIDENT

Perspectives from the Campaign Managers

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 June 2010

Hanes Walton Jr. ,
Josephine A. V. Allen ,
Sherman C. Puckett ,
Donald R. Deskins Jr.  and
Robert T. Starks
Hanes Walton Jr.
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Michigan
Josephine A. V. Allen
Affiliation:
Cornell University
Sherman C. Puckett
Affiliation:
Department of Technology, Wayne County Geographic Information System
Donald R. Deskins Jr.
Affiliation:
University of Michigan
Robert T. Starks
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Northeastern Illinois University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Beginning with the 1972 presidential election and for each election thereafter Harvard University's Institute of Politics in the John F. Kennedy School of Government has held a post-election symposium where all of the campaign managers, pollsters, political consultants and media advisors for all of the primary and general election candidates come together with leading journalists, electronic and print, and political commentators and pundits to discuss and dialogue about what occurred during the election among the candidates, nominees, and the winner and losers. The symposia have allowed campaign managers to describe what happened and forecast for the forthcoming presidential election. After the multi-day symposium a book length transcript is published. In 1992 the Annenberg School of Communication at the University of Pennsylvania launched its own symposia where the campaign managers of the Democratic and Republican nominees in the general election are invited to discuss what happened and forecast for the next presidential election. The ten books in the Harvard series and the three books in the Pennsylvania series are used as data sources in this article to determine if any of the campaign managers forecasted and/or predicted an African American presidential candidate, even when such candidates had appeared in previous years. While our findings uncover some of the interests and concerns of presidential campaign managers and advisors since 1972, the overriding focus of the symposia has been on the nature, scope, and significance of the African American electorate.

Keywords

African American VotingBarack ObamaPresidential CampaignsCampaign ManagersForecasting.
Type
State of the Discipline
Information
Du Bois Review: Social Science Research on Race , Volume 7 , Issue 1 , Spring 2010 , pp. 57 - 80
Copyright
Copyright © W.E.B. Du Bois Institute for African and African American Research 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Brooke, Edward W. (2007) Bridging the Divide: My Life. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.Google Scholar
Chisholm, Shirley (1973). The Good Fight. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Eldersveld, Samuel and Walton, Hanes Jr. (2000). Political Parties in American Society. New York: Bedford/St. Martin's.Google Scholar
Freedman, Eric and Jones, Stephen (Eds.) (2008). African Americans in Congress: A Documentary History. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Gill, LaVerne McCain (1997). African American Women in Congress: Forming and Transforming History. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press.Google Scholar
Halperin, Mark and Harris, John F. (2006). The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1973). Campaign '72: The Managers Speak. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1977). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '76. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1981). The Campaign for President: 1980 in Retrospect. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1985). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '84. Dover, MA: Auburn House Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1986). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '84. Dover, MA: Auburn House Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1989). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '88. Dover, MA: Auburn House Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1994). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '92. Hollis, NH: Hollis Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (1997). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '96. Hollis, NH: Hollis Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (2002). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2000. Hollis, NH: Hollis Publishing Company.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (2006). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2004. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Harvard University Institute of Politics (2009). Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2008. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Ifill, Gwendolyn L. (2009). The Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall and Waldman, Paul (Eds.) (2001). Electing the President 2000: The Insiders' View. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall (Ed.) (2006). Electing the President 2004: The Insiders' View. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Jamieson, Kathleen Hall (2009). Electing the President 2008: The Insiders' View. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael and Rice, Tom (1992). Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael and Nadeau, Richard (2009). “Obama and the Economy of 2008,” PS: Political Science and Politics, 42(July): 479–483.Google Scholar
Lichtman, Allan and DeCell, Ken (1990). The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency: Prediction Without Polls. New York: Madison Books.Google Scholar
McLemore, Leslie B. and Coleman, Mary (1994). The Jesse Jackson Campaign and the Institutionalization of Grass-Roots Politics: A Comparative Perspective. In Walton, Hanes Jr. (Ed.), Black Politics and Black Political Behavior: A linkage Analysis, pp. 49–60. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Plouffe, David (2009). The Audacity to Win: The Inside Story and Lessons of Barack Obama's Historic Victory. New York: Viking.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven (1983). Forecasting Presidential Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Tufte, Edward (1974). Data Analysis for Politics and Policy. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr. (1992). The Native-Son Presidential Candidate: The Carter Vote in Georgia. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr. (1994). Black Female Presidential Candidates: Bass, Mitchell, Chisholm, Wright, Reid, Davis and Fulani. In Walton, Hanes Jr. (Ed.), Black Politics and Black Political Behavior: A Linkage Analysis, pp. 251–273. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr. (2000). Reelection: William Jefferson Clinton as a Native-Son Presidential Candidate. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr.; Jordan, Kenneth; Jordan, Lester; Forester, Maxie; and Walton, Thomas N. (2001). African American Voting Behavior, President Clinton's Scandal, and the 1998 Election: The Search for New Variables. National Political Science Review, 8: 139–150.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr.; Allen, Josephine A. V.; Puckett, Sherman; Deskins, Donald R. Jr.; and Tate, Billie Bee (2008a). The Literature on African American Presidential Candidates. Journal of Race and Politics, 4(Spring/Summer): 103–123.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr.; Allen, Josephine A. V.; Puckett, Sherman C.; and Deskins, Donald R. Jr. (2008b). The Red and Blue State Divide in Black and White: The Historic 2008 Election of President Barack Obama. The Black Scholar, 38(Winter): 19–31.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr.; Allen, Josephine A. V.; Puckett, Sherman; and Deskins, Donald R. Jr. (2009a). The Literature on Senator Barack Obama's 2008 Presidential Campaign. National Political Science Review, 12: 195–204.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr.; Allen, Josephine A. V.; Puckett, Sherman; and Deskins, Donald R. Jr. (2009b). Barack Obama: The Making of the President 2008. The Black Collegian, Jan: 7–12.Google Scholar
Walton, Hanes Jr. and Smith, Robert C. (2010). American Politics and the African American Quest for Universal Freedom. Fifth Edition. New York: Longman.Google Scholar
White, Theodore (1965). The Making of the President, 1964. New York: Atheneum.Google Scholar
White, Theodore (1982). America in Search of Itself: The Making of the President 1956–1980. New York: Warner Books.Google Scholar