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Lockdown Effect on COVID-19 Incidence and Death: Iran Experience

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 July 2021

Sajad Delavari ,
Zahra Jamali  and
Mohsen Bayati
Sajad Delavari
Affiliation:
Health Human Resources Research Center, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
Zahra Jamali
Affiliation:
Department of Biostatistics, School of Medicine, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
Mohsen Bayati*
Affiliation:
Health Human Resources Research Center, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
*
Corresponding author: Mohsen Bayati, Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

Objective:

Countries are trying several policy options for decreasing the incidence and burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). One of these strategies is a lockdown, complete closure, to reduce the risk of distributing disease by means of social interactions. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a 3-week lockdown on the mortality and morbidity of COVID-19 in Iran.

Methods:

Official daily data on COVID-19 incidence and death reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) were extracted from September 1, 2020, to January 14, 2021. Data were analyzed using interrupted time series analysis by means of STATA 14 software.

Results:

Lockdown resulted in a significant reduction in the daily death from COVID-19 in the short-term (β = −139; P < 0.01) and in the long-term (β = −12; P < 0.01). Moreover, lockdown in the short-term insignificantly (β = −21.58; P = 0.969), and in the long-term significantly (β = −317.31; P < 0.01) reduced the COVID-19 daily incidence.

Conclusions:

The results showed that the lockdown has a significant effect on incidence and death numbers. Therefore, it could be a suitable short-term strategy for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, its negative effects on households and businesses should be considered.

Keywords

COVID-19SARS COV-2coronaviruseslockdowndeathincidencemortalitymorbidity
Type
Brief Report
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 16 , Issue 6 , December 2022 , pp. 2385 - 2387
Copyright
© Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2021

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