Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T20:16:12.507Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Estimation of Pregnant Women Possibly Left Behind in Tsunami Predicted Areas of Nagoya City: A Simulation for Rescue Planning

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 March 2020

Ritsuko Hattori ,
Shoko Miyagawa  and
Kanetoshi Hattori
Ritsuko Hattori*
Affiliation:
Nara Gakuen University - Tomigaoka Campus, Faculty of Health Science, Nara, Japan
Shoko Miyagawa
Affiliation:
Keio University, Nursing and Medical Care, Minato-ku, Japan
Kanetoshi Hattori
Affiliation:
Nara Gakuen University - Tomigaoka Campus, Faculty of Health Science, Nara, Japan
*
Correspondence and reprint requests to Ritsuko Hattori, Tomigaoka Campus, Nara Gakuen University, 3-15-1 Nakatomigaoka, Nara, Japan (e-mail: [email protected])
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Objective:

In case of an outbreak of Nankai Trough Mega-earthquake, it is predicted that a tsunami would invade Nagoya City within 100 minutes, hitting about one third of the City of Nagoya. If the administrative plan of the city and midwives’ expertise are coordinated, pregnant women’s chances of survival will increase. The authors carried out this simulation study in an attempt to improve consistency of the two efforts.

Method:

We estimated the number of pregnant women using a machine learning model. The evacuation distance of pregnant women was estimated on the basis of the data of road center line.

Results:

Through this simulation study, it became clear that preparation for approximately 2600 pregnant women escaping from tsunami predicted area and for about 1200 pregnant women possibly left in the area is needed.

Conclusions:

Our study suggests that triage point planning is needed in areas where pregnant women are evacuated. The triage makes it possible to transport women to appropriate hospitals.

Keywords

tsunamisrescue planningpregnant womenmachine learning modelGeographic Information Systems (GIS)
Type
Original Research
Information
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness , Volume 15 , Issue 3 , June 2021 , pp. 325 - 332
Copyright
Copyright © 2020 Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

City of Nagoya. Tsunami hazard map of your town (Text in Japanese, author). 2014a. http://www.city.nagoya.jp/bosaikikikanri/page/0000112354.html. Accessed October 30, 2019.Google Scholar
City of Nagoya. Predicted damages of Tokai Trough Mega-earthquake, seismic intensity distribution, tsunami height (Text in Japanese, author). 2014b. http://www.city.nagoya.jp/bosaikikikanri/cmsfiles/contents/0000056/56058/0203sindotsunami.pdf. Accessed September 11, 2019.Google Scholar
Aichi Prefecture Disaster Defense Earthquake Committee. Results of damage prediction survey of Tokai Earthquake, Tonankai Earthquake and Nankai Earthquake of Aichi Prefecture (Text in Japanese, author). 2014. http://www.pref.aichi.jp/bousai/2014higaiyosoku/whitebooknew2.pdf. Accessed July 1, 2019.Google Scholar
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 2015 National census, small community area, sex separated 5-year-age interval population data of Aichi Prefecture (Text in Japanese, author). 2017. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/gis/statmap-search?page=2&type=1&toukeiCode=00200521&toukeiYear=2015&aggregateUnit=A&serveyId=A002005212015&statsId=T000849. Accessed August 25, 2019.Google Scholar
Hattori, K, Hattori, R. Estimation of number of pregnant women in Aichi Prefecture, Japan by machine learning and kernel density estimation, base data construction for disaster preparation. Disaster Med Public Health Prep. (under review)Google Scholar
Tokyo Kaijou Risk Consulting, Inc. Evacuation from overflood and tsunami by automobile. Risk Management Forefront. 14. (Text in Japanese). 2016. https://www.tokiorisk.co.jp/risk_info/up_file/201602101.pdf. Accessed August 29, 2019.Google Scholar
Kiyota, Y, Iwakura, N, Nonaka, Y. Urban gridlock and bottleneck of Tokyo road networks due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. (Text in Japanese). Japan Society of Civil Engineering Collection of Papers. 2014;70(5):1059-1066. www.db.shibaura-it.ac.jp/~iwakura/kiyotagridlock.pdf. Accessed October 29, 2019.Google Scholar
NHK. Protect yourself from earthquake disaster, if we should use a car for evacuation, Great East Japan Earthquake Archive, NO. 1. 2011. https://www9.nhk.or.jp/archives/311shogen/fa/se1/index.html. Accessed February 21, 2020.Google Scholar
Open Source Geospatial Foundation (OSGeo). QGIS 3.8 Zanzibar, author. 2019. https://www.qgis.org/ja/site/forusers/index.html. Accessed September 10, 2019.Google Scholar
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. A list of disaster base hospitals (Text in Japanese, author). 2016. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/seisakunitsuite/bunya/kenkou_iryou/iryou/saigai_iryou/dl/saigai_iryou07.pdf. Accessed August 12, 2019.Google Scholar
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. A guideline to construct perinatal medical service system. (Text in Japanese). 2012. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/file/06-Seisakujouhou-10800000-Iseikyoku/4_2.pdf. Accessed September 11, 2019.Google Scholar
Aichi Prefectural Perinatal Medicine Council. Aichi Prefectural Perinatal Medicine Information System (Text in Japanese, author). 2019. http://www.picu.jp/clinic_center/index.html. Accessed August 20, 2019.Google Scholar
City of Nagoya. List of ward office and area medical center. (Text in Japanese, author). 2019a. http://www.city.nagoya.jp/kurashi/category/19-9-2-0-0-0-0-0-0-0.html. Accessed October 29, 2019.Google Scholar
Tokai-Hokuriku Regional Bureau of Health and Welfare. List of designated medical facilities for health insurance practice (Text in Japanese, author). 2019. https://kouseikyoku.mhlw.go.jp/tokaihokuriku/gyomu/gyomu/hoken_kikan/shitei.html. Accessed August 11, 2019.Google Scholar
Office, Cabinet. On promotion of tsunami countermeasures by tsunami evacuation buildings (Text in Japanese, author). 2018. http://www.bousai.go.jp/jishin/tsunami/hinan/tsunami_top.html. Accessed September 20, 2019.Google Scholar
City of Nagoya. On tsunami evacuation buildings (Text in Japanese, author). 2019b. http://www.city.nagoya.jp/bosaikikikanri/page/0000025607.html. Accessed November 1, 2019.Google Scholar
Nyoumura, Y. Difference of tsunami traces high and tsunami runup height, colossal tsunami of which runup height exceeded 40 m invaded during Tohoku Earthquake and tsunami disaster. Yahoo! Japan News. March 11, 2017. https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/nyomurayo/20170311-00068495/. Accessed February 21, 2020.Google Scholar
Japan Meteorological Agency. On tsunami (Text in Japanese, author). 2019. http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/kishou/know/faq/faq26.html. Accessed November 1, 2019.Google Scholar