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Economists in Wartime

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 September 2008

Alec Cairncross
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Extract

The part played by economists in the Second World War has been little studied but was of an importance not appreciated by the public then or since. Equally, wartime experience had an influence on the development of economics as a discipline that has been given little attention. It was in the Second World War that economists in any number entered government service, discovered government, exercised a major influence on policy and left behind an expanding demand for economic advice from professional economists. This article seeks to provide a sketch of some of their activities.

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Articles
Information
Contemporary European History , Volume 4 , Issue 1 , March 1995 , pp. 19 - 36
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1995

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References

1 The Collected Papers of James Meade, Vol. 4: The Cabinet Office Diary of James Meade (1944–46), ed. by Susan Howson (London: Unwin Hyman, 1988). Meade, a Nobel Laureate, was a member of the Economic Section of the War Cabinet Offices 1940–5 and Director of the Economic Section 1945–7.

2 Robbins, Lionel, Autobiography of an Economist (London: Macmillan, 1971).CrossRefGoogle Scholar Robbins was a member of the Economic Section of the War Cabinet Offices 1940–5 and Director 1942–5.

3 Cairncross, Alec, Austin Robinson, the Life of an Economic Adviser (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1993).CrossRefGoogle Scholar Austin Robinson, secretary of the Royal Economic Society 1945–70, was a member of what became the Economic Section from its beginning in December 1939 until he left in 1942 to join the newly established Ministry of Production. He continued in government service until 1946, latterly as Economic Adviser to the Board of Trade, and returned for a further year with the Planning Staff in 1947–8.

4 Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vols 22–7 (London/Basingstoke: Macmillan for the Royal Economic Society, 1978–80). Keynes spent most of the First and Second World Wars in the Treasury.

5 A series of official histories, including, for example, M. M. Postan's British War Production, was published after the war by HMSO and Longmans Green.

6 Booth, Alan, ‘Economists and Points Rationing in the Second World War’, Journal of Economic History, 1985.Google Scholar For points rationing, see below, p. 26. Booth, also provides a useful sketch of the thinking of economists on economic issues in wartime Britain in his British Economic Policy 1931–49 (Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1989).Google Scholar

7 Walter Layton (later Lord) (1884–1966), lecturer in economics at Cambridge University 1912–19; joined the Ministry of Munitions under Lloyd George in 1915 and organised the flow of statistics; editor of The Economist 1922–38 and chairman of the News Chronicle 1930–50. For his work in the Second World War see p. 34.

8 Henry Clay (later Sir) (1883–1954), Professor of Political Economy (later of Social Economics), University of Manchester 1922–30; Economic Adviser to the Bank of England 1930–44; Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford, 1944–9.

9 Hubert Henderson (later Sir) (1890–1954) was President of the Cambridge Union in 1912 and Secretary of the Cotton Control Board in the First World War. Editor, The Nation and Athenaeum from 1923–30 before it was merged with the New Statesman. Joint secretary of the Economic Advisory Council 1930–4; served full-time in the Treasury after the Stamp Survey was dissolved; elected Warden of All Souls College, Oxford, in 1954 but died before he could take up the appointment.

10 William Beveridge (later Lord) (1879–1963), took a leading part in introducing Labour Exchanges and unemployment insurance before the First World War and in organising consumer rationing during the war. When asked in 1941 to review the social services as a means of deflecting him from other activities, he seized his opportunity and submitted radical proposals for combining the various social services under a new system of national insurance.

11 Ralph Hawtrey (later Sir) (1879–1975) was on the staff of the Treasury from 1904 until his retirement in 1945. He was the author of numerous books on monetary problems.

12 Arthur Salter (later Lord) (1881–1975) began in the Admiralty in 1904, was Secretary of the Allied Maritime Transport council in 1918 and General Secretary of the Reparations Committee in 1920–2. From 1934 to 1944 he was Gladstone Professor of Political Theory and Institutions at Oxford University, entering Parliament in 1937 and subsequently holding office as Parliamentary Secretary of the Ministry of Shipping 1941–3 and as Minister of State for Economic Affairs in 1951–2. In 1944 he was Senior Deputy Director-General of the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Agency.

13 E. M. H. Lloyd (1889–1968) served in the War Office and Ministry of Food in the First World War, continued in the civil service and was Principal Assistant Secretary in the Ministry of Food 1939–42; Economic Adviser to the Minister of State in Cairo 1942–4; served in the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Agency 1945.

14 E. F. Wise (1885–1933) was Assistant Director of Army Contracts, 1916, and Principal Assistant Secretary in the Ministry of Food, 1917; delegate to the Supreme Economic Council; Labour MP 1929–31.

15 John Jewkes (1902–88) Professor of Social Economics, University of Manchester, 1936–46 (from 1930 Director there of the first Economic Research Unit in this country); joined the staff of the Stamp Survey in December 1939 and, when it became the Economic Section of the War Cabinet Offices in January 1941, was appointed its first Director; moved to the Ministry of Aircraft Production in the autumn of 1941 to set up a Department of Planning and Statistics and moved again to the Ministry of Reconstruction in 1944; returned to Manchester in 1945; appointed to a new chair in Economic Organisation at the University of Oxford, 1948.

16 Harry Campion (later Sir) (b. 1905), Reader in Statistics, University of Manchester, 1933–9; War Cabinet Offices 1939–41; Director, Central Statistical Office, 1941–67.

17 Henry Phelps Brown (later Sir) (b. 1906) taught economics at Oxford University before the war as a Fellow of New College. He spent the war as a member of the armed forces and later held a chair in the Economics of Labour at the London School of Economics 1947–66.

18 Harold Wilson (later Lord) (b. 1916), later Prime Minister, 1964–70, 1974–6; Fellow of University College, Oxford, 1938; attached to the group of economists in the Cabinet Office 1940–1; Director of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Fuel and Power 1943–4.

19 Richard Stone (later Sir) (1913–91), Nobel Laureate, became a Lloyd's underwriter after graduation in economics at King's College, Cambridge. In the war he served first with the Ministry of Economic Warfare, moving in 1940 to the Cabinet Office where he worked with James Meade on national income measurement.

20 Devons, Ely, Planning in Practice (thereafter Devons, Planning) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1950), 3.Google Scholar

21 An account of the early days of the Economic Section is given in Cairncross, Alec and Watts, Nita, The Economic Section (London: Routledge, 1989)Google Scholar, ch. 4. The work of the planning staff of the Ministry of Aircraft Production is described in Devons, Planning, and in Cairncross, Alec, Planning in War-time: Aircraft Production in Britain, Germany and the USA (London/Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1991).CrossRefGoogle Scholar There is no published study of the work of economists in the wartime Board of Trade.

22 Francis Hemming (1893–1964) had difficulty in restraining his wit and spent too much of the time of his staff in the business of drafting memoranda. In January 1941 he became the first head of the Central Statistical Office, was moved out soon afterwards, and in 1944 moved again to the Ministry of Fuel and Power.

23 Evan Durbin (1906–48), Lecturer in economics, London School of Economics 1939–40; War Cabinet Offices, 1940–2; personal assistant to C. R. Attlee 1942–5; Parliamentary Secretary, Ministry of Works, 1947–8.

24 Norman Chester (later Sir) (1907–86), Lecturer in public administration, University of Manchester 1936–45; Economic Section 1940–5; Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford, 1954–78.

25 Ely Devons (1913–67), a Manchester graduate, was recruited to the Cotton Control at the outbreak of war and joined the economists in the Cabinet Office in March 1940. More than anyone he was the driving force behind the work of this group. When he joined Jewkes in the Ministry of Aircraft Production late in 1941 he continued to be the dominant influence on the planning staff.

26 The first Economic Survey was described as quarterly and was circulated to the Lord President's Committee 20 Oct. 1941, LP [41]172 in PRO CAB 71/5. Other wartime Surveys were issued to the same committee in March, July and Oct. 1942, in June and Dec. 1943 and in July 1945.

27 The Mission to Washington and Ottawa headed by Richard Law, Minister of State at the Foreign Office, in Sept–Oct. 1943, was part of the Anglo-American exchanges on economic issues that preceded the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. It covered commercial policy, cartels, commodity policy and employment policy as well as the Keynes and White Plans.

28 The White Paper on Employment Policy of 1944 contained the Coalition Government's pledge to aim at ‘a high and stable level of employment’ – interpreted by the public as a pledge to maintain full employment.

29 John Wall (1913–80), O. T. Falk & Co 1933–9; Ministry of Food 1939–52; Unilever Ltd 1952–8; Chairman International Computers Ltd 1968–72.

30 Stanley Dennison (1912–92), Cambridge economist; lecturer in economics, University of Manchester, 1935–9; Professor of Economics, University College, Swansea, 1939–45; Economic Section 1940–6; lecturer in economics and Fellow of Caius College, Cambridge, 1945–58; Principal of the University of Hull, 1972–9.

31 Ronald Tress (b. 1915), Research Fellow, University of Manchester, 1937–8; assistant lecturer in economics, University of Exeter, 1938–41; Economic Section 1941–7; Professor of Political Economy, University of Bristol, 1951–68; Director, The Leverhulme Trust, 1977–84.

32 Philip Chantler (1911–88), lecturer in public administration, University of Manchester, 1936–8; Economic Section 1941–7; Economic Adviser, Ministry of Fuel and Power, 1947–60.

33 Nita Watts (b. 1920), later Vice-Principal of St Hilda's College, Oxford, came to the War Cabinet Offices from the Bank of England in 1941 and remained in the Economic Section until 1955; UN Economic Commission for Europe 1955–64.

34 Marcus Fleming (1911–76), Member, Finance Section of League of Nations 1935–7; Ministry of Economic Warfare 1939–42; Economic Section, 1942–51 (Deputy Director 1947–51); International Monetary Fund 1954–76.

35 The White Paper did not discuss the need for economists to advise on other matters but accepted that employment policy would certainly require the technical expertise of economists. The Economic Section regarded the maintenance of full employment as the prime purpose of economic planning.

36 Harold Laski (1893–1950), Professor of Political Science, London School of Economics, 1926–50; Chairman, Labour Party, 1945–6.

37 Geoffrey Crowther (later Lord) (1907–72), Editor, The Economist 1938–56; Ministry of Supply 1940–1; Ministry of Information 1941–2; Deputy Head, Joint War Production Staff, 1942–3; Chairman, Trust Houses Forte, Ltd, 1960–71.

38 Maurice Hankey (later Lord) (1877–1963), Assistant Secretary, Committee of Imperial Defence, 1908–12, Secretary 1912–38; Secretary War Cabinet 1916, Cabinet 1919–38; Minister in War Cabinet 1939–40; Chancellor of Duchy of Lancaster 1940–1; Paymaster General 1941–2.

39 Sir Edward Bridges (later Lord) (1892–1969) succeeded Hankey as Cabinet Secretary in 1938; Permanent Secretary of the Treasury 1945–56.

40 Norman Brook (later Lord Normanbrook) (1902–67), Principal Under Secretary to Sir John Anderson 1938–40; personal assistant to Lord President 1940–2; Deputy Secretary, War Cabinet 1942; Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Reconstruction 1943–5; additional Secretary 1945–6 and Secretary to the Cabinet 1947–62.

41 Sir Frederick Leith-Ross (1887–1968), Private Secretary to the Prime Minister 1911–13; Deputy Controller of Finance, HM Treasury, 1925–32; Chief Economic Adviser to HMG 1932–46; Director-General, Ministry of Economic Welfare, 1939–42; Deputy Director-General, United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Agency, 1944–5.

42 A number of economists stayed on as administrators, but most were anxious to return as soon as possible to their universities. Robert Hall, who became Director of the Economic Section in 1947, found great difficulty in recruiting senior economists of the necessary calibre whether to the Economic Section or to advise other departments.

43 Professor Lindemann (later Lord Cherwell) (?-1957), Professor of Experimental Philosophy, University of Oxford, 1919–56; Churchill's intimate advisor, particularly on technical and scientific issues, 1940–5; staff consisted largely of economists. An account of the work of Lindemann and his staff by Professor Tom Wilson (who served as a member) will appear shortly.

44 Roy Harrod (later Sir) (1900–78), Student (i.e. Fellow) of Christ Church, Oxford, 1924–67; joined Prime Minister's Statistical Branch 1940–1; joint editor (with Austin Robinson) of the Economic Journal and author of biographies of Keynes and Lindemann.

45 David Bensusan-Butt (d. 1994) had been a pupil of Keynes at King's College, Cambridge. In 1946 he joined the Economic Section, and in 1960 accepted a Professorial Research Fellowship in Canberra.

46 Donald MacDougall (later Sir) (b. 1912), an Oxford economist who began his academic career at the University of Leeds (1936–9); a key figure in the Prime Minister's Statistical Branch 1940–5 and again closely associated with Professor Lindemann in the Prime Minister's Statistical Branch 1951–3; Head of the Government Economic Service 1969–71.

47 Bryan Hopkin (later Sir) (b. 1914), a Cambridge economist; private secretary to Professor Lindemann 1941–5; Economic Section 1948–50; Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research 1952–7; Head of the Government Economic Service 1974–7.

48 David Champernowne (b. 1912), a pupil of Keynes at King's College, Cambridge; joined MAP as a kind of refugee from employment under Professor Lindemann; Professor of Statistics, Oxford University, 1948–59; Reader in Economics, University of Cambridge, 1959–70; joint editor Economic Journal 1971–6.

49 George Shackle (1903–92), author of many books on uncertainty in economic life; member of Prime Minister's Statistical Branch 1939–45; Economic Section 1945–9; Professor of Economic Science, University of Liverpool, 1951–69.

50 Tom Wilson (b. 1916), Fellow of University College, Oxford, 1946–58; Adam Smith Professor of Political Economy, University of Glasgow, 1958–82.

51 Lord Beaverbrook was Minister of Aircraft Production 1940–1.

52 Frank Paish (1898–1988), lecturer in economics, London School of Economics from 1932 and Professor 1949–65, specialising in money and finance.

53 Brian Tew (b. 1917), one of the few pre-war Cambridge PhDs in economics; Iron and Steel Control 1940–2; Ministry of Aircraft Production 1942–5; Professor of Economics, Nottingham University, 1950–67.

54 Walter Hagenbuch (b. 1916), Manchester graduate; from 1964 Professor of Economics, University of Kent.

55 For aircraft planning in Germany, see Overy, R. J., Goering: the Iron Man (1984)Google Scholar; idem, ‘German Aircraft Production 1939–42’, PhD thesis (Cambridge, 1978); and Cairncross, A., Planning in War-time: Aircraft Production in Britain, Germany and the USA (London/Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1991).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

56 Dennis Robertson (later Sir) (1890–1963) was a Fellow of Trinity College, Cambridge, and had been a close colleague of Keynes. He spent most of the war in the Treasury, leaving in 1944 on appointment to the (Marshall) Chair in Economics in Cambridge.

57 Richard (‘Otto’) Clarke (later Sir) (1910–75), Cambridge graduate in mathematics; Financial News 1933–9 (introduced the idea of an index of stock exchange prices); served in a series of government departments 1939–45; entered the Overseas Finance Division of HM Treasury, 1944; remained in the Treasury after the war, becoming Second Secretary in 1962.

58 Alec Grant (1906–88), lecturer in Political Economy, University College London, 1938–9; HM Treasury 1939–56; EPU Managing Board 1952–3; Fellow of Pembroke College, Cambridge, from 1966.

59 Goronwy Daniel (later Sir) (b. 1914), Oxford Institute of Statistics 1937–40; Ministry of Town and Country Planning 1943–7; Chief Statistician, Ministry of Fuel and Power 1947–53; Vice Chancellor, University of Wales, 1977–9.

60 Eric Roll (later Lord) (b. 1907), Professor of Economics and Commerce, University of Hull, 1935–46; member, then Deputy Head, of British Food Mission to North America 1941–6 and UK executive officer on Combined Food Board until 1946; later, Director, Bank of England and Joint Chairman S. G. Warburg.

61 Hugh Gaitskell (1906–63), Reader in Political Economy, University College London, 1938–9; principal private secretary to Minister of Economic Welfare (Dalton) 1940–1; principal assistant secretary, Board of Trade, 1942–5; Chancellor of the Exchequer 1950–1.

62 Noel Hall (later Sir) (1902–83) lecturer, Senior Lecturer, Professor of Political Economy, University College London, 1927–38; Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research 1938–43; Joint Director, Ministry of Economic Warfare, 1940; Minister in charge of War Trade Dept, British Embassy, Washington, 1941–3; Principal, Brasenose College, Oxford, 1960–73.

63 Richard Kahn (later Lord) (1905–89), Fellow of King's College, Cambridge, and a close associate of Keynes; Board of Trade 1940–1; staff of Minister of State, Cairo, 1941–5; Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge, 1951–72.

64 George Allen (1900–82), economist and economic historian, an authority on British industry and on the Japanese economy; Professor of Economics at Liverpool University 1933–47; at University College London 1947–67. In wartime Assistant Secretary, Board of Trade, 1941–5, dealing with industrial policy (concentration of industry, cartels, restrictive practices, price control).

65 Brian Reddaway (b. 1913). Took a 1.1 in Economics at Cambridge in 1935; Fellow of Clare since 1938; Statistics Division of Board of Trade (latterly Chief Statistician) 1940–7; editor of Economic Journal 1971–6; Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge, 1969–80.

66 John Habbakuk (later Sir) (b. 1915), Foreign Office 1940–2; Board of Trade 1942–6; Chichele Professor of Economic History, University of Oxford, 1950–67; Vice Chancellor, University of Oxford, 1973–7.

67 Sidney Golt (b. 1910), PPE degree 1931; joined Central Price Regulation Committee 1940, Secretary 1945–6; Deputy Secretary, Board of Trade, 1968–70; has written extensively on GATT.

68 Douglas Jay (later Lord), journalist 1929–40; (Times, 1929–33; Economist, 1933–7); City Editor, Daily Herald, 1937–40; Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Supply, 1940–3; Principal Assistant Secretary, Board of Trade, 1943–5; Principal Personal Assistant to Prime Minister, 1945–6; President, Board of Trade, 1964–7.

69 Percy Ford was Professor of Economics at the University of Southampton.

70 Duncan Burn (1902–88), economist and historian; lecturer, University of Cambridge, 1927–39; Ministry of Supply (Iron and Steel Control) 1939–46; industrial correspondent and leader writer, Times, 1946–62.

71 Robert Shone (later Sir) (1906–92) lecturer, London School of Economics 1935–6; British Iron and Steel Federation 1936–9 and 1946–53; Ministry of Supply (Iron and Steel Control) 1940–5; Director General, National Economic Development Council, 1962–6.

72 Arnold Plant (later Sir) (1898–1978), Professor of Economics, London School of Economics, 1930–65; first director of War-time Social Survey 1940; Adviser to Ministerial Chairman of Interdepartmental Materials Committee, and Ministry of Production, 1942–5.

73 Richard Sayers (1908–89), monetary historian and authority on banking; assistant lecturer, London School of Economics 1931–5; lecturer, at Oxford University, 1935–45; Ministry of Supply 1940–5; Joint Deputy Director of Economic Section, Cabinet Office, 1945–7; Cassel Professor of Economics, London School of Economics, 1947–68. Wrote most of the Radcliffe Report, 1957–9.

74 Robert Hall (later Lord) (1901–88), engineer turned economist; Rhodes Scholar from Australia; Fellow of Trinity College, Oxford, 1926–47; Ministry of Supply 1939–46; British Raw Materials Mission, Washington, 1941–4; Adviser, Board of Trade, 1946–7; Director, Economic Section, 1947–61.

75 Russel Bretherton (b. 1906), Fellow of Wadham College, Oxford, 1928–45; lecturer in economics and modern history; Ministry of Supply, Board of Trade, 1939–45; Under-Secretary, Board of Trade, 1946–8, 1954–61; Joint Deputy Director, Economic Section, 1949–51; Under-Secretary, Treasury, 1961–8.

76 Hugh Weeks (1904–92), director of Statistics, Ministry of Supply, 1939–42; Head of Programmes and Planning Division, Ministry of Production, 1943–5; Chairman, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 1970–4; Director, Finance Corporation for Industry, 1956–74.

77 Hilary Marquand (1901–72), Professor of Industrial Relations, 1930–45; Board of Trade 1940–1; Ministry of Labour 1941–2; Labour Adviser, Ministry of Production, 1943–4; Secretary for Overseas Trade 1945–7; Minister of Pensions 1948–51.

78 Edwin Plowden (later Lord) (b. 1907), Ministry of Economic Warfare 1939–40; Ministry of Aircraft Production 1940–6 (Chief Executive 1945–6); Chief Planning Officer 1947; Treasury 1947–53; Chairman, Tube Investments Group, 1963–76.

79 Ronald Fowler (b. 1910), assistant lecturer, lecturer in Commerce, London School of Economics 1932–40; Central Statistical Office 1940–50; Director of Statistics, Ministry of Labour, 1950–68.

80 Jack Stafford (1909–82), assistant lecturer, lecturer in Economics, University of Manchester, 1930–41; Central Statistical Office 1941–8; Director of Statistics, Board of Trade, 1948–72.

81 Teddy Radice (b. 1907), Assistant Professor of Economics, Wesleyan University, Connecticut, USA, 1937–9; Ministry of Economic Warfare 1940–4; Foreign Service 1945–53; Director of Economic Intelligence, Ministry of Defence, 1966–70.