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Some Implications of Recent Work in Historical Demography

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 June 2009

John T. Krause
John T. Krause
Affiliation:
Ohio State University
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Extract

Current population theory depends heavily on the hypothesis that a demographic revolution occurred in West European countries roughly between 1750 and 1880. According to this hypothesis, European death rates averaged at least 35 per 1,000 prior to 1750; hence, even very high birth rates did not enable populations to recover rapidly from the effects of catastrophes, which are supposed to have been frequent and intense. Only after the advances, mainly hygienic, which began about 1750 did the death rate commence a long-term decline. Because fertility remained high, West European populations grew more rapidly than they had ever done. Eventually, urbanization and industrialization sapped the forces which maintainted high birth rates, and low fertility became the major cause of low Western rates of growth.Since currently under-developed populations have high vital rates, it has been suggested that demographic principles are transcultural and that Western demographic patterns will be repeated.

Type
Research Article
Information
Comparative Studies in Society and History , Volume 1 , Issue 2 , January 1959 , pp. 164 - 188
Copyright
Copyright © Society for the Comparative Study of Society and History 1959

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References

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7 That the early Canadian censuses were probably far more accurate than those for most pre-industrial populations is indicated by the evidence given by Pelletier, A. J., “Canadian Censuses of the Seventeenth Century”, Papers and Proceedings ‖ of the Canadian Political Science Association, II (1930), pp. 20–34.Google Scholar His comments are relevant to the eighteenth century censuses as well. The census of 1734 is said to have been the most accurate of the early censuses.

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15 I do not discuss the use of the national data for 1770–84 to estimate vital rates. Without an adequate estimate of total population, such rates are invalid.

16 Baehrel, opera cit.

17 Bourgeois-Pichat, op. cit.

18 Vincent, P., “French Demography in the Eighteenth Century”, Population Studies, I (1947), pp. 44–71, 50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

19 Spengler, J. J., France Faces Depopulation (Durham, Duke University Press, 1938), pp.17–8, summarizes the findings.Google Scholar

20 d'Avenel, G., Histoire économique de la propriété, des salaires, des denrées, 7 vols., 2d. ed. (Paris, Imprimerie nationale, 1913), III, pp. 229 and 424–44.Google Scholar Hearth counts place the population at 20,905,413 in 1720, 17,017,737 in 1745, and 18,017,000 in 1755. The 1720 figure has long been taken as referring to 1762, see Esmonin, E., “L'abbé Expilly et ses travaux de statistique”, Revue d'histoire moderne et contemporaine, IV (1957), pp. 241–80, 274Google Scholar; Dainville, Fr. de, “Un dénombrement inédit au XVTIIe siécle: l'enquete du Controlêur générate Orry – 1745”, Population, VII (1952), pp. 49–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Conan, J., Review of Dainville's article, Revue d'histoire économique et sociale, XXXII (1954), pp. 328–9.Google Scholar While the health coefficients may not have been the same for each hearth count, it is unlikely that the difference between 1720 and 1745–55 would disappear completely.

21 The data are given in the appendices to vols. Ill and IV of Expilly, J. J., Dictionnaire geographique, historique et politique des Gaules et de la France, 6 vols. (Paris, Desaint and Saillant, 1762–70)Google Scholar. Oddly enough, most copies of vol. IV do not contain this appendix, as Esmonin, op. cit., points out. Not having access to a vol. IV which contained data on 8,000 parishes, I am indebted to Prof. Esmonin who graciously furnished me with the missing data.

22 Vincent, op. cit., p. 51. It should also be noted that Duvillard's data undoubtedly contain still-births, foundlings, etc.

23 Connell, K. H., “Some Unsettled Problems in English and Irish Population History”, Irish Historical Studies, VII (1951), pp. 225–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Habakkuk, op. cit.; Krause, J., “Changes in English Fertility and Mortality, 1781–1850”, Economic History Review, to appear in August, 1958.Google ScholarMcKeown, T. and Brown, R. G., “Medical Evidence Related to English Population Changes in the Eighteenth Century”, Population Studies, IX (1955), pp. 119–41CrossRefGoogle Scholar, support the traditional position. However, they deny that medical science was an important factor; their stress is on environmental improvements, an argument which I examined. The few statistics cited by McKeown and Brown are mainly for London. In addition to Habakkuk's objection to the use of London data (op. cit., pp. 125–7), I might note that the statistics refer to burials in London, not to deaths of Londoners. As the city increased in size during the century, burial space became increasingly expensive and many cheap burial grounds opened outside the city. More and more burials, especially of the lower classes, occurred outside the limits of the Bills of Mortality; hence, a large part of the seeming decline of London's mortality during the eighteenth century is explained on the basis of the deteriorating registration of deaths.

24 Connell, K. H., The Population of Ireland, 1750–1845 (Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1950)Google Scholar. Not even M. Buer argued that mortality was the major factor in Irish population growth. In a note which had no specific reference to her text she took much the same position in regard to Ireland as that taken by Connell, although she did not present the wealth of supporting detail and the discriminating appreciation of the problems which he has. That many of her generalizations on Ireland contradict her position on England is obvious, see Buer, op. cit., pp. 263–5.

25 Gille, op. cit. The table of death rates, p. 65, contains two errors for Iceland. In 1784 and 1785 the death rates were 113.8 and 132.9 per 1,000 respectively, instead of 11.4 and 14.4 per 1,000.

26 Utterström, op. cit., pp. 128–9.

27 Thompson, W. S., “La population des Etats-Unis d'Amréique”, Population, III (1948), pp. 115–26Google Scholar, Krause, , Changes in English Fertility and Mortality, Connell, The Population of Ireland, pp. 184–237; Henripin, op. cit., p. 103.Google Scholar

28 Cépède, M. and Lengellé, M., Economie alimentaire du globe (Paris, Librairie de Medicis, 1953), especially pp. 279–85.Google ScholarThompson, W. S., Population Problems, 4th ed. (New York, McGraw-Hill, 1953), pp. 48–9.Google Scholar Both works agree that death rates which are consistently over 30 per 1,000 indicate a chronically short food supply. The generalization is not necessarily true for urban aieas, but would appear to be so for most rural areas. I shall give few references on the remainder of this discussion of mortality because the points will be covered in greater detail in a forthcoming book.

29 For an eloquent discussion of food shortage in the world, see de Castro, J., The Geography of Hunger (Boston, Little, Brown and Company, 1952).Google Scholar

30 Heckscher, E. F., An Economic History of Sweden (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1954), pp. 68–70.Google Scholar More detailed data are found in his Sveriges Ekonomiska Historia frdn Gustav Vasa, 2 vols. (Stockholm, Albert Bonniers förlag, 1936–49), II, appendix, pp. 16–9.Google Scholar Also, see the comments made by Böethius, op. cit., pp. 155–8; Connell, , The Population of Ireland, pp. 151–6Google Scholar, Krause, Changes in English Fertility and Mortality; Creighton, C., A History of Epidemics in Britain, 2 vols. (Cambridg, The University Press, 1891), I, p. 67Google Scholar; Boissonnade, P., Life and Work in Medieval Europe (New York, A. A. Knopf, 1927), p. 261.Google Scholar There is little doubt that diets in the U.S. and Canada were sufficient. Even for West European areas for which we possess little information, the chances are that dietary levels were well above those of currently under-developed peoples because the major cereal was wheat or rye and livestock and fishing played prominent roles in the economy. Most contemporary underdeveloped populations subsist on rice, maize, or starchy roots which tend to cause beii-beri, pellegra, or multiple deficiency diseases.

31 Carr-Saunders, A. M., The Population Problem (Oxford, The Clarendon Press, 1922), p. 249Google Scholar; Davis, K., The Population of India and Pakistan (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1949), p. 41Google Scholar, Pernoud, R., Lumière du moyen age (Paris, B. Grasset, 1946), pp. 221–35, esp. 223.Google Scholar

32 Kuznets, S., “Population, Income and Capital”, in Dupriez, L. (ed.), Economic Progress (Louvain, Institut de Recheiches Economiques et Sociales, 1955), pp. 27–46.Google Scholar

33 Krause, Changes in English Fertility and Mortality; Labrousse, C. E., Esquisse du mouvement desprix et des revenus en France au XVllle siècle, 2 vols. (Paris, Librairie Dalloz, 1933), II, pp. 362 and 492Google Scholar; Hamilton, E. J., War and Prices in Spain, 1651–1800 (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1947), pp. 204–16; Böethius, op. cit., p. s.Google Scholar

34 Razous, P., “L' évolution de l'agriculture française métropolitaine a travers I'histoire”, Journal de la société de statistique de Paris, LXXXV (1944), pp. 56–85, 80.Google ScholarSteffen, G. F., Studien zur Geschichte der Englischen Lohnarbeiter, 3 vols. (Stuttgart, Hobbing and Büchle, 1905), I, p. 112.Google Scholar A considerable amount of statistical and non-statistical data can be cited in support of the general outline presented in these works.

35 Davis, op. cit., pp. 53–4; Pampana, E. J. and Russell, P. F., “Malaria: A World Problem”, Chronicle of the World Health Organization, IX (1955), pp. especially 33–94, 33–9Google Scholar; Sorre, M., Les fondements biologiques de la geographie humaine, 2 vols. (Paris, A. Colin, 1942–3), I, pp. 354–66.Google Scholar

36 Mols, op. cit., II, pp. 299–305, and III, pp. 149–50; McCloy, , Government Assistance in Eighteenth-Century France, pp. 238–59Google Scholar. It has been estimated that prior to 1767 2,690 children out of 2,800 admitted annually to London workhouses did not live to be a year old. Death rates for the period after 1767 are not known.

37 The statement is based on conversation with Dr. S. Peller. Supporting his view is the fact that infant mortality rates in Bavaria, Wurtemburg, and Saxony seem out of proportion to the mortality of ages 1–4 and older. Brissot de Warville and Bernardi, loc. cit; Rubin, M., “Population and Birth Rate, Illustrated from Historical Statistics”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, LXIII (1900), pp. 596–625, 616–7.Google Scholar Also, note the quotation from the royal speech to the Estates in 1756, Utterström, op. cit., p. 146. Schöne, L., Histoire de la population française (Paris, Arthur Rousseau, 1893), p. 138Google Scholar, gives some evidence on infanticide in the seventeenth century.

38 McKeown and Brown, op. cit., p. 129; Henry, L., “La mortalité infantile dans les families anombreuses”, Population, III (1948), pp. 631–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gille, op. cit., p. 50. Gille expressed himself more definitely in conversation than he did in the article. Also, the French Canadians of the late nineteenth century had lower age-specific death rates for ages over 14 than did the rest of Canadians, but under the age of 14 the reverse was the case. The most obious explanation is that the high fertility of the French Canadians caused high infant and child mortality. Another instance of this type is provided by the Hutterites, see Easton, J. W. and Mayer, A. J., “The Social Biology of Very High Fertility among the Hutterites. The Demography of a Unique Population”, Human Biology, XXV (1953), pp. 206–64, 237–9.Google Scholar

39 Lorimer, F. and others, Culture and Human Fertility(Paris, Unesco, 1954), pp. 164–217Google Scholar; Carr-Saunders, op. cit., p. 264. That the marriage habits of fourteenth century Englishmen were probably not greatly different from the eighteenth century Scandinavians is suggested by Krause, J. T.. “The Medieval Household: Large or Small?”, Economic History Review, 2d. ser., IX (1957), pp. 420–32, 431.Google Scholar That many tenants were unmarried in the ninth century may be inferred from the Polyptyque of the Abbot Irminon, see Schöne, op. cit., p. 73,

40 Suite, op. cit., II, p. 97; Langlois, G., Histoire de la population canadienne-française (Montréal, Albert LéVesque, 1934, pp. 205–6Google Scholar; Miner, H.. “Changes in Rural French Canadian Culture”, American Journal of Sociology, XLIV (1938), pp. 365–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

41 Hovde, B. J., The Scandinavian Countries, 1720–1865, 2 vols. (Boston, Chapman and Grimes, 1943), I, pp. 286–8.Google Scholar

42 Gjerset, K., History of Iceland (New York, The Macmillan Company, 1925), pp. 320–2.Google Scholar

43 Rubin, op. cit., pp. 596–606; Mols, op. cit., II, p. 222.

44 Henry, L., Fecondité des mariages. Nouvelle méthode de mesure, cahier no. 16 of the Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques (Paris, Presses Universitaires de France, 1953,) p. 99.Google Scholar The ratio of children aged 0–4 per 1.000 women aged 15–49 is discussed by Kuczynski, R. R., The Measurement of Population Growth (London, Sidgwick and Jackson, Ltd., 1935), pp. 96–9.Google Scholar My suggested rates, in addition to the qualifications noted by Kuczynski, do not take illegitimacy nor the reproductive activity of recently widowed women into account. However, these factors are nor important enough to explain the differences which will be discussed shortly.

45 Eaton and Mayer, op. cit., pp. 254–5.

46 J.de Castro, op. cit., pp. 70–2 and particularly 162–3. Some have assumed that de Castro's argument is a correlation between protein consumption and fertility, but his main point is that large amounts of proteins reduce the ability to have children.

47 The references are so numerous that I shall cite only a few of those which I found to be most pertinent. Mazei, C. and Isarel, S. L., Diagnosis and Treatment of Menstrual Disorders and Sterility, 3d. ed. (New York, P.B. Hoeber, 1951), passimGoogle Scholar; Wohl, M. G. and Goodhart, R. S. (eds.), Modern Nutrition in Health and Disease (Philadelphia, Lea and Febeger, 1955), passimGoogle Scholar, and, in some ways most important, Gilman, J. and Gilman, T., Perspectives in Human Nutrition (New York, Grune and Stratton, 1951), passim.Google Scholar On nutritional diseases in India, see Davis, op. cit., pp. 58–61. De Castro cited the experiments conducted by Slonakei on rats as evidence of the deleterious effects of animal proteins on fecundity. But these experiments were carried out in the 1930's before many amino acids were known. It is now clear that the feeding of incomplete proteins often results in great damage. A well balanced diet is necessary, see Wohl and Goodhart, op. cit., pp. 113 and 136. I am indebted to Dean T. S. Sutton for advice on the animal experiments.

48 Mazer and Israel, op. cit., pp. 323–4.

49 Gilman and Gilman, op. cit., pp. 424 and 434.

50 Ibid., pp. 426 and 496; Mazer and Israel, op. cit., p. 462.

51 Mathen, K. K., “Rice Diet and Population Trends”, Indian Journal of Medical Research, XLIV (1956), pp. 491–9, 498.Google Scholar

52 Lane-Roberts, op. cit., pp. 146–51; Mazer and Israel, op. cit., pp. 140 and 411; Macloed, J., “Effect of Chickenpox and Pneumonia on Semen Quality”, Fertility and Sterility, II (1951), pp. 523–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

53 Mazer and Israel, op. cit., pp. 462–3; Lane-Roberts, op. cit., pp. 146–51; Pampana and Russell, op. cit., pp. 35–6; Census of India, 1951, vol. I, part 1-A, p. 132.Google Scholar

54 Kiser, C. V., “Fertility Trends and Differentials among Non-whites in the United States”, Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, XXXVI (1958), pp. 149–97, 190–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar, ascribes a large part of the amazing increase of non-white fertility since 1940 to improved health conditions, particularly the reduction of venereal disease (which is so widespread in many under-developed countries). Among the factors which would also affect fertility are length of nursing period, the non-marriage of widows, and taboos on sexual activity at various periods. There is little information on the length of the lactation period in the different regions of India. One can get widely varying estimates: World Health Organization, “Infant Nutrition in the Subtropics and Tropics”, Chronicle, IX (1955), pp. 217–28Google Scholar, and Peters, H., and Israel, S., and Purshottam, S., “Lactation Period in Indian Women: Duration of Amenorrhea and Vaginal and Ceivical Cytology”, Fertility and Sterility, IX (1958), pp. 134–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar One would think that a short period is probable because of the effect of malnutrition on ability to lactate. If Davis is correct in believing that the taboo on the remarriage of Hindo widows reduces fertility then there is another reason to believe that improved health will raise fertility.

55 Gille, op. cit., pp. 31 and 39; Goubert, , Une richesse historique, pp. 90–2.Google Scholar

56 Rubin, op. cit., p. 617; Hovde, op. cit., II, p. 759. Although not mentioned by Hovde, one would suspect that coitus interruptus was used. Apparently, it was the major means of controlling fertility in nineteenth century France, and is still important in some countries. On abortion in France, see Montesquieu, Lettres persanes, letter no. CXX.

57 Mols, op. cit., III, pp. 216–23.

58 Price, R., Observations on Reversionary Payments, 4th ed., 2 vols. (London, T. Cadell, 1783), II, pp. 313–6.Google Scholar Price took the data from Süssmilch, P., Die Göttliche Ordnung in den Veränderungen des menschlichen Geschlechts …, 3d ed. (Berlin, 1765).Google Scholar

59 Michelet, J., Satanism and Witchcraft (New York, The Citadel Press, 1939), pp. 112 and 161Google Scholar, not only mentions the French medieval sermons, but he points out that a consideiable number of sixteenth century peasants know that cold douches prevent conception. For the information on the Italian sermons I am indebted to Prof. R. Lopez (personal communication). Much is sometimes made of the silence of historical sources as evidence that birth control was not practised. While a variety of factors might explain such silence, one should remember that the subject of birth control is still taboo in many quarters and that some important writers have implied that it is inconsequential in the advanced countries of the twentieth century. Brownlee, J., “The History of the Birth- and Death-Rates in England and Wales taken as a Whole from 1570 to the Present Time”, Public Health, XXIX (1916), pp. 211–22 and 228–38Google Scholar was considered by many to be the authorative work on English historical demography, but one of the main points of the article was to show that long-term variations in racial physiology explain changes in the birth rate. Also, de Castro does not seem to ascribe much importance to contraception. Others could also be cited.

60 There are several recent instances in which improved health has been cited as a partial explanation of increased fertility: Lorimer, op. cit., pp. 137–9; United Nations, The Population of Central America (including Mexico), 1950–80 (New York, United Nations, 1954), p. 9Google Scholar; Kiser, op. cit., pp. 190–6.

61 Pirie, N. W., “World Hunger as a Biochemical Problem”, Journal of the Royal Society of Arts, CVI (1958), pp. 511–28.Google Scholar

62 Census of India, 1951,1, part 1A, pp. 216–28.Google Scholar