Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T18:25:23.013Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Does Jack Goldstone's Model of Early Modern State Crises Apply to Russia?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2012

Chester Dunning
Chester Dunning
Affiliation:
Texas A and M University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In 1991 Jack A. Goldstone published an important book, Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, in which he boldly charted a new way to explain the basic causes of revolution throughout Eurasia from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries. Goldstone attempts to explain the periodic waves of early modern state crises, rebellions, and civil wars in widely divergent cultures and geographic settings by developing an intriguing model of state breakdowns which he applies primarily to England, France, the Ottoman Empire, and China. Goldstone views the crises of large agrarian absolute monarchies mainly as the result of a single basic process: prolonged population growth in the context of relatively inflexible economic and social structures, eventually resulting in rapid price inflation, sudden shifts in resources, and rising social demands on a scale that most agrarian-based bureaucratic states found overwhelming. Simply put, long-term population and price in-creases have helped push rigid political, economic, and social institutions into crisis. Since the publication of Goldstone's work, there has been a positive response to it from many historians and social scientists. So far, however, no one has attempted to test Goldstone's model by applying it to a state break-down which the author did not include in his study. In my own research I have discovered that Goldstone's model may apply to Russia even though he did not focus on it. In this article I hope to demonstrate that his work helps explain Russia's Time of Troubles (1598–1613) and that the Russian test case helps validate Goldstone's model as an important contribution to comparative history.

Type
CSSH Discussion
Information
Comparative Studies in Society and History , Volume 39 , Issue 3 , July 1997 , pp. 572 - 592
Copyright
Copyright © Society for the Comparative Study of Society and History 1997

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Goldstone, Jack A., Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991)Google Scholar. See also Goldstone, Jack A., “East and West in the Seventeenth Century: Political Crises in Stuart England, Ottoman Turkey, and Ming China.” Comparative Studies in Society and Histon: 30: 1 (January 1988), 103–42CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

2 See. for example, the review by Parker, Geoffrey in The American Historical Review, 97: 5 (1992), 1488–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Migdal, Joel S. in Comparative Political Studies, 25: 4 (1993), 608–11CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kamen, Henry in Histon Today. 41 (December 1991), 56–57Google Scholar; Peter, Karl in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 526 (March 1993), 195–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Kimmel, Michael S., in Social Forces. 70:3 (March 1992), 829–32Google Scholar: Levine, David, in Journal of Family History, 17:3 (1992), 331–2Google Scholar: Richards, Michael, in Journal of Social History, 26 (Summer 1993), 875–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar: and Chirot, Daniel, in The Journal of Modern Histoy. 67:3 (September 1995), 674–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 The classic study of the Time of Troubles (Smutnoe vremiu) is Platonov, S. F., Ocherki poistorii Smuty v Moskovskom gosudarstve XVI–XVll vv., 3rd ed. (St. Petersburg: Bashmakov, 1910)Google Scholar. A condensation and popularization of that work is Platonov, S. F., Smutnoe vremia (Prague: Plamia, 1924)Google Scholar. An English translation of Platonov's shorter study, prepared by John T. Alexander, is Platonov, S. F., The Time of Troubles (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1970)Google Scholar. More recently, Skrynnikov, Ruslan G. published The Time of Troubles: Russia in Crisis, 1604–1618, Graham, Hugh, trans. (Gulf Breeze, Florida: Academic International Press, 1988)Google Scholar.

4 The first historian to connect the Time of Troubles directly to the enserfment of the Russian peasants was V. N. Tatishchev. A century later, V. O. Kliuchevskii and S. F. Platonov popularized the idea of the Time of Troubles as a social struggle linked to serfdom. Platonov's views were especially influential in the development of Soviet scholarship on the topic. See Tatishchev, V. N., Istoriia rossiiskaia. 7 vols. (Moscow-Leningrad: Nauka, 1962–1968), 7:367Google Scholar; Kliuchevskii, V. O., Sochineniia, 8 vols. (Moscow: Gosudarstvennoe izdatel'stvo politicheskoi literatury, 1956–1959), 3:48Google Scholar; Platonov, Ocherki, 305; idem, Smutnoe vremia, 31–59, 93; and comments by Ivanov, L. M. in Istorik-Marksist, 68:4 (1938), 153–6Google Scholar.

5 Pokrovskii, M. N., Russkaia istoriia v samom szhatom ocherke, parts 1 and 2 (Moscow, 1920), 66Google Scholar: Firsov, N. N., Krest ianskaia revoliutsiia na Rusi v XVII v. (Moscow-Leningrad, 1927), 61Google Scholar; Ts. Aronovich, “Vosstanie Ivana Bolotnikova.” Istoricheskii zhurnal, no. 1 (1937), 113; Smirnov, I. I., Vosstanie Bolotnikova 1606–1607 (Leningrad: Gosudarstvennoe izdatel'stvo politicheskoi literatury, 1951), 493, 495Google Scholar; A. A. Zimin. “Nekotorye voprosy istorii krest'ianskoi voiny v Rossii v nachale XVII v.,” Voprosy istorii, no. 3, (1958), 97–99; I. I. Smirnov, “O nekotorykh voprosakh istorii bor'by klassov v Russkom gosudarstve nachale XVII veka,” Voprosy istorii, no. 12 (1958), 116–17; A. P. Pronshtein, “Reshennye i nereshennye voprosy istorii krest'ianskikh voin v Rossii.” Voprosx istorii, no. 7 (1967), 156–57; Makovskii, D. P., Pervaia krest'ianskaia voina v Rossii (Smolensk: Moskovskii rabochii, 1967)Google Scholar; Buganov, V. I., Krest'ianskie voiny v Rossii XVII-XVIII vv. (Moscow: Nauka, 1976), 6–50Google Scholar.

6 Koretskii, V. I., “Novgorodskie dela 90-kh godov XVI v. so ssylkami na neizvestnye ukazy tsaria Fedora Ivanovicha o krest'ianakh,” Arkheograficheskii zhurnal za 1966 god (Moscow: Nauka, 1968), 306–30Google Scholar; idem, “Novoe o krest'ianskom zakreposhchenii i vosstanii Bolotnikova.” Voprosy istorii, no. 5 (1971), 130–52; idem, Zakreposhchenie krest'ian i klassovaia bor'ba v Rossii vo vtoroi polovine XVI v. (Moscow: Nauka, 1970). 118–9, 145; idem, Formirovanie krepostnogo prava i pervaia krest'ianskaia voina v Rossii (Moscow: Nauka, 1975), 364–6; V. M. Paneiakh, “Zakreposhchenie krest'ian v XVI v.: Novye materialy, kontseptsii. perspektivy izucheniia (po povodu knigi V. I. Koretskogo),” Istorii SSSR, no. 1 (1972), 157–65; G. N. Anpilogov. “K voprosu o zakone 1592–1593 gg., otmeniavshem vykhod krest'ianam, i urochnykh letakh v kontse XVI-pervoi polovine XVII v.,” Istoriia SSSR, no. 5 (1972), 160–77; Zakonodatel'nye akty Russkogo gosudarstva vtoroi poloviny XVI-pervoi poloviny XVII veka. Kommentarii (Leningrad: Nauka, 1987), 59–60, 66–97Google Scholar; Zimin, A. A., V kanun groznykh potriasenii: Predposvlkipervoi krest'ianskoi voiny v Rossii (Moscow: Mysl', 1986), 209–11Google Scholar; Istoriia krest'ianstva SSSR s drevneishikh vremen do Velikoi Oktiabr'skoi sotsialisticheskoi revoliutsii, vol. 2: Krest'ianstvo v periods rannego i razvitogo feodalizma (Moscow: Nauka, 1990), 376–8, 424–5Google Scholar.

7 See, for example, Avrich, Paul, Russian Rebels, 1600–1800 (New York: Shocken, 1972), 10–47Google Scholar; Blum, Jerome, Lord and Peasant in Russia from the Ninth to the Nineteenth Century (New York: Atheneum, 1966), 254–9Google Scholar; Field, Daniel, Rebels in the Name of the Tsar (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1976), 2–7Google Scholar; Keep, John L. H., Soldiers of the Tsar (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1985), 73–74Google Scholar; Longworth, Philip, The Cossacks (London: Constable, 1969), 77–79Google Scholar; Billington, James, The Icon and the Axe (New York: Knopf. 1966), 198–9Google Scholar; Smith, R. E. F., Peasant Farming in Muscovx (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1977), 108–9, 144–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Vernadsky, George, The Tsardom of Moscow, 1547–1682, 2 vols. (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1969), 1: 237–40Google Scholar; Mousnier, Roland, Peasant Uprisings in Seventeenth-Century France, Russia, and China (New York: Harper, 1970), 153–95Google Scholar; Hellie, Richard, Enserfment and Military Change in MOSCOVY (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1971), 102–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar; idem, Slavery in Russia, 1450–1725 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1982). 574–6; Riasanovsky, Nicholas, A History of Russia, 5th ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993), 157–74Google Scholar: MacKenzie, David and Curran, Michael W., A History of Russia, the Soviet Union, and Beyond, 4th ed. (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 1993), 176–82Google Scholar.

8 Skrynnikov, R. G., Rossiia v nachale XVII v. “Smuta” (Moscow: Mysl', 1988)Google Scholar; idem, Smuta v Rossii v nachale XVII v. Ivan Bolotnikov (Leningrad: Nauka. 1988); Stanislavskii, A. L., Grazhdanskaia voina v Rossii XVII v.: Kazachestvo na perelome istorii (Moscow: Mysl', 1990)Google Scholar; Dunning, Chester, “R. G. Skrynnikov, the Time of Troubles, and the ‘First Peasant War’ in Russia,” The Russian Review, 50:1 (1991), 71–81CrossRefGoogle Scholar; idem, “Cossacks and the Southern Frontier in the Time of Troubles.” Russian History, 19:1–4 (1992), 57–74; V. V. Polikarpov. “V Rossii grazhdanskuiu voinu nazyvaiut Smutoi,” Voprosy istorii, no. 2 (1994). 189; R. G. Skrynnikov, “Spornye problemy vosstaniia Bolotnikova,” Istoriia SSSR, no. 5 (1989). 92–110; idem., “The Civil War in Russia at the Beginning of the Seventeenth Century (1603–1607): Its Character and Motive Forces,” in New Perspectives on Muscovite History. Lindsey Hughes, ed. (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993), 61–79; Chester Dunning. “Byla li v Rossii v nachale XVII veka krest'ianskaia voina?" Voprosy istorii, no. 9 (1994), 21–34.

9 Skrynnikov, Smuta v Rossii, 3. Many historians refer to the dynastic wars in Muscovy during the reign of Grand Prince Vasilii II (r. 1425–62) as a “civil war.” Whatever label one uses, those conflicts occurred before the unification of Russia in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries and before the establishment of the Russian empire by Ivan IV. The term civil war has. of course, been used occasionally to describe events of the Time of Troubles ever since the early seventeenth century. (See, for example, de la Ville, Pierre, Discours sommaire de ce qui est arrivé en Moscovie depuis le règne de Juan Vassilyvich Empereur, jusques a Vassily Juanovits Sousky [Paris: Frank, A., 1859], 9Google Scholar; Massa, Isaak, Kratkoe izvestie o Moskovii v nachale XVII v. (Moscow: Gosudarstvennoe sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe izdatel'stvo, 1937), 151Google Scholar.) Even some Soviet scholars, inspired by Lenin's pronouncement that peasant wars were the civil wars of the feudal period and the highest form of class struggle against serfdom, applied the term civil war to the Time of Troubles. Despite the use of the term, however, they still regarded the uprisings of that period essentially as a social revolution. See, for example, Smirnov, I. I. et al. Krest'ianskie voiny v Rossii XVII-XVIII vv. (Moscow-Leningrad: Nauka, 1966), 307–9Google Scholar; Nazarov, Vladislav, “The Peasant Wars in Russia and their Place in the History of the Class Struggle in Europe,” in The Comparative Historical Method in Soviet Mediaeval Studies (Moscow, 1979), 115–6, 136–9Google Scholar; Cherepnin, L. V., Voprosy metodologii istoricheskogo issledovaniia (Moscow: Nauka, 1981), 153, 159, 164–5, 213, 225, 258Google Scholar.

10 Massa, Kratkoe izvestie, 81.

11 Stanislavskii. Grazhdanskaia voina, 7–8. 36. 38, 243–7.

12 Dunning. “Byla li v Rossii,” 31. See also Bercé, Yves-Marie, Revolt and Revolution in Early Modern Europe (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1987), 25, 120Google Scholar.

13 See. for example. Furet, François, Interpreting the French Revolution (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1981)Google Scholar; Hunt, Lynn, Politics, Culture, and Class in the French Revolution (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1984)Google Scholar: Kennedy, Mark E., “Legislation. Foreign Policy, and the Proper Business of the Parliament of 1624.” Albion. 23:1 (Spring 1991), 41–43CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

14 Pavlov, A. P., Gosudarev dvor ipoliticheskaia bar 'ba pri Borise Godunove (1584–1605 gg.) (St Petersburg: Nauka, 1992)Google Scholar. See also Platonov, Time of Troubles, ch. 2.

15 Skrynnikov, “Civil War,” 74.

16 Dunning, “Byla li v Rossii,” 30–31.

17 Ibid., p. 31. See also the intriguing comments about Russian Orthodox culture and political instability in Rowland, Daniel, “Did Muscovite Literary Ideology Place Limits on the Power of the Tsar (1540s–1660s)?.” The Russian Review. 49:2 (April 1990), 125–55CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and in Kivelson, Valerie, “The Devil Stole his Mind: The Tsar and the 1648 Moscow Uprising,” The American Historical Review. 98:3 (June 1993), 733–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

18 Concerning this trend in revisionist scholarship, see critical comments by Jack Goldstone (Revolution and Rebellion, 12–15); by Lawrence Stone (“The Revolution Over the Revolution.” The New York Review of Books [June 11, 1992], 47–51). and by Parker, Geoffrey (The American Historical Review, 97:5 [December 1992], 1488CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

19 Hellie, Richard, “Warfare, Changing Military Technology, and the Evolution of Muscovite Society,” in Lynn, John A., ed., Tools of War: Instruments, Ideas, and Institutions of Warfare, 1445–1871 (Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1990), 82–83Google Scholar; idem, Enserfment, 8–10, 16–17. 21, 31, 39, 95. 146–7, 262; idem, “The Stratification of Muscovite Society; The Townsmen,” Russian History, 5:2 (1978). 136, 140; Skrynnikov, “Civil War,” 72; idem., Smuta v Rossii, 6–7.

20 Hellie, Slavery, 4, 16; idem, “Stratification,” 119; idem. “Warfare,” 81, 83–84; Keep, Soldiers, 13; Kolycheva, E. I., Agrarnxi stroi Rossii XVI veka (Moscow: Nauka, 1987), 195Google Scholar.

21 Hellie, , Enserfment, 47. 48–49, 238–41Google Scholar; Keep, Soldiers, 37.

22 Mousnier, Peasant Uprisings, 331, 346; Crummey, Robert O., The Formation of Muscovy, 1304–1613 (New York: Longman, 1987), 20–21, 215Google Scholar.

23 Blum, Lord and Peasant, 160–1; Veselovskii, S. B., Feodal'noe zemlevladenie v Severovostochnoi Rusi (Moscow-Leningrad: AN SSSR, 1947), 35Google Scholar; Zimin, A. A., “Osnovnye etapy i formy klassovoi bor'by v kontsa XV–XV I veka,” Voprosy istorii, 40:3 (1965), 50Google Scholar; Smirnov, Vosstanie Bolotnikova, 64; Hellie, Enserfment, 99.

24 Kolycheva. Agrarnyiu stroi, 195–201.

25 D. P. Makovskii, Razvitie tovamo-denezhnykh otnoshenii v sel'skom khoziaistve Russkogo gosudarstva v XVI veke (Smolensk. 1963). 32–33. 278–79. 292, 320, 496–97; Smith, Peasant Farming, 144–5.

26 Rozhkov, N., Sel'skoe khoziaistvo moskovskoi Rusi v XVI veke (Moscow, 1899), 305–10Google Scholar; Makovskii. Razvitie, 226.

27 Hellie. Enserfment, 97; Smith, Peasant Fanning, 226; Kolycheva, Agramxi stroi, 201.

28 Skrynnikov, “Civil War.” 72.

29 Mousnier. Peasant Uprisings, 181, 331. 346; Makovskii, Razvitie, 226; Smith, Peasant Fanning, 107, 226.

30 Keep, Soldiers, 15; Hellie, Slavery, 23.

31 Alef, Gustave, “The Origin of Muscovite Autocracy: The Age of Ivan III,” Forschungen zur osteuropäischen Geschichte, 39 (1986), 8–9Google Scholar; Pipes, Richard, Russia Under the Old Regime (New York: Scribners, 1974), 73–77, 85, 87, 191–206Google Scholar: Crummey, Formation, 91, 96, 132–3, 135–7; Hellie, “Warfare.” 76–84; Kleimola, Ann, “Up through Servitude: The Changing Condition of the Muscovite Elite in the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries,” Russian History, 6: 2 (1979), 210–2, 220CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Keenan, Edward L., “Muscovite Political Folkways,” The Russian Review, 45:2 (1986), 118, 129–32, 135, 140–2. 146–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hunt, Priscilla, “Ivan IVs Personal Mythology of Kingship.” Slavic Review, 52:4 (1993), 769–70, 772, 776–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Flier, Michael S., “Breaking the Code: The Image of the Tsar in the Muscovite Palm Sunday Ritual.” in Flier, Michael S. and Rowland, Daniel, eds., Medieval Russian Culture, vol. 2: 226 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1994)Google Scholar.

32 Crummey, Formation, 135–40, 143. 152–4; Flier, “Breaking the Code,” 242; Daniel Row-land. “Biblical Military Imagery in the Political Culture of Early Modern Russia: The Blessed Host of the Heavenly Tsar.” in Flier and Rowland, Medieval Russian Culture, 183. 187–8, 190, 196–8; Lantzeff, George V. and Pierce, Richard A., Eastward to Empire (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press, 1973), 109–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

33 Vasilii III inherited 1.7 million square kilometers in 1505; Boris Gudunov inherited between 4.3 and 5.4 million square kilometers in 1598. See Hellie, Enserftnent. 21; Smith, Peasant Fanning, 103.

34 Hellie, “Warfare,” 80; Keep, Soldiers, 47–48; Kolycheva, Agramyi stroi, 177.

35 Skiynnikov, “Civil War,” 70–71; Zimin, A. A., Oprichnina Ivana Groznogo (Moscow: Mysl', 1964), 389–430Google Scholar.

36 See Kolycheva, Agramyi stroi, 172–7.

37 von Laue, Karl, “Juridical Manifestations of Serfdom in West Russia,” Canadian-American Slavic Studies, 6:3 (1972), 397–8Google Scholar.

38 Wright, William E., “Neo-Serfdom in Bohemia.” Slavic Review, 34:2 (June 1975), 242–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Makkai, László, “Neo-Serfdom: Its Origin and Nature in East Central Europe.” Slavic Review, 34:2 (June 1975), 232–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar; von Laue, “Juridical Manifestations of Serfdom in West Russia,” 396 8; Prodan, David, “The Origins of Serfdom in Transylvania,” Slavic Review, 49:1 (Spring 1990), 17CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Shapiro, A. L., Russkoe krest'ianstm pered zakreposhcheniem (XIV-XVI vv.) (Leningrad: Leningradskii Universitet, 1987)Google Scholar.

39 Mousnier, Peasant Uprisings, xvii–xx; Berce, Revolt and revolution, viii; Zagorin, Perez, Rebels and Rulers 1500–1660, 2 vols. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), 1: 28–30, 36Google Scholar.

40 Eric Hobsbawm. “The Overall Crisis of the European Economy in the Seventeenth Century.” Past and Present, no. 5 (1954). 33–53; Aston, Trevor, ed.. Crisis in Europe 1560–1660 (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1965)Google Scholar: Rabb, Theodore K., The Struggle for Stability in Earlx Modern Europe (New York: Oxford University Press, 1975), 3–28Google Scholar; Parker, Geoffrey and Smith, Lesley M., eds.. The General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1978), 1–21Google Scholar.

41 Neils Steensgaard. “The Seventeenth-Century Crisis.” in Parker and Smith. General Crisis, 26–27; A. Lloyd Moote. “The Preconditions of Revolution in Early Modern Europe: Did They Really Exist?.” in Parker and Smith. General Crisis, 134–6; John H. Elliott. “Revolution and Continuity in Early Modern Europe,” Past and Present, no. 42 (1969), 35–56 : Kamen, Henry, The Iron Century: Social Change in Europe 1550–1660 (London: Cardinal, 1976), 339–41Google Scholar; Zagorin, , Rebels and Rulers, 1: 136–39Google Scholar.

42 Steensgaard, “Seventeenth-Century Crisis.” 37–40; Parker and Smith, General Crisis, 14–15. A contributor to crisis theory scholarship. Michael Roberts, developed the idea of a “military revolution” of the early modern period–a revolution in military technology, tactics and strategy, the size of armies, and the cost of war–which resulted in greatly increased burdens on governments and taxpayers. Subsequent scholarship on this topic has focused on its profound, even “revolutionary.” impact on governments and societies. War was the single greatest expense of the early modern state and forced rulers and bureaucrats to seek revenues with zeal. This affected the economy and eventually almost everyone in society and helped increase the power of central state authority significantly. See Roberts, Michael, Essays in Swedish History (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1967), 195–225Google Scholar: Duffy, Michael, ed.. The Military Revolution and the State. 1500–1800 (Exeter: Exeter University Press, 1980), IGoogle Scholar: Hale, J. R., War and Society in Renaissance Europe. 1450–1620 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985), 232. 235–6, 247Google Scholar; Parker, Geoffrey, The Military Revolution (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), 61 64Google Scholar; Downing, Brian, The Military Revolution and Political Change (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992), 3, 10–11, 56. 77–78Google Scholar.

43 Bercé, Revolt and revolution. 220; Mousnier. Peasant Uprisings, 327–32; Steensgaard, “Seventeenth-Century Crisis.” 42–48.

44 Parker and Smith. General Crisis, 4–12 : Mousnier. Peasant Uprisings, 312–18.

45 See Paul Dukes. “Russia and The ‘General Crisis’ of the Seventeenth Century.” The New Zealand Slavonic Journal (new series) (1974). no. 2, 1–17.

46 Mousnier, Peasant Uprisings, 163–5. 331. 348.

47 Brown, Peter B., “Muscovy, Poland, and the Seventeenth-Century Crisis.” The Polish Review, 27: 3–4 (1982), 55–58Google Scholar.

48 de Vries, Jan, “Measuring the Impact of Climate on History: The Search for Appropriate Methodologies,” in Rotberg, Robert I. and Rabb, Theodore K., eds.. Climate and History: Studies in Interdisciplinary History (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981), 42–43Google Scholar; Christian Pfister, “The Little Ice Age: Thermal and Wetness Indices for Central Europe,” in Rotberg and Rabb, Climate and History, 112–6; Ladurie, Emmanuel LeRoy, Times of Feast, Times of Famine: A History of Climate Since the Year 1000 (Garden City; Doubleday, 1971), 224–7. 297. 312Google Scholar.

49 Andrew B. Appleby, “Epidemics and Famine in the Little Ice Age,” in Rotberg and Rabb, Climate and History, 77; Kahan, Arcadius, “Natural Calamities and their Effect upon the Food Supply in Russia (An Introduction to a Catalogue).” Jahrbiicherfur Geschichte Osteuropas, 16:3 (September 1968), 361, 371Google Scholar.

50 Braudel, Fernand, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, 2 vols. (New York: Harper and Row, 1972), 1:270, 275Google Scholar. See also Braudel, Fernand, Capitalism and Material Life 1400–1800 (New York: Harper and Row, 1973), 18–20Google Scholar.

51 Arnold, David, Famine: Social Crisis and Historical Change (Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1988), 9–11Google Scholar; De Vries, “Measuring the Impact of Climate on History.” 42.

52 Clark, Peter, ed., The European Crisis of the 1590's (London: George Allen and Unwin, 1985), 3–4Google Scholar.

53 Ibid., 4–9, 12–13; Appleby. “Epidemics and Famine,” 63–83: Steensgaard, “Seventeenth-Century Crisis,” 38: Kamen. Iron Century, 366–80. 384: Bercé. Revolt and Revolution, 144–7; Jütte, Robert, Poverty and Deviance in Early Modern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 180–9Google Scholar.

54 LeRoy Ladurie, Times of Feast, 142–3, 164. 225, 297; Post, John D., The Last Great Subsistence Crisis in the Western World (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1977), xiiGoogle Scholar.

55 Clark, European Crisis, 6–7 : LeRoy Ladurie, Times of Feast, 289: Appleby, Andrew B., Famine in Tudor and Stuart England (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1978), 109, 112. 133–4Google Scholar; Arnold, Famine, 13; Kirby, David, Northern Europe in the Early Modern Period: The Baltic World 1492–1772 (New York: Longman, 1990), 150Google Scholar: Koretskii, V. I., “Golod 1601–1603 gg. v Rossii i tserkov,” in Voprosy islorii religii i ateizma. Sbornik statei, vol. 7 (Moscow: AN SSSR, 1959), 229–30Google Scholar: Boldakov, I. M., Sbornik materialov po russkoi istorii nachala XVII veka (St. Petersburg: Izd. S. D. Sheremeteva, 1896), 17, 46–52Google Scholar.

56 Kamen. Iron Century, 366, 370–5. 384; Kirby. Northern Europe. 151–3; A. S. Zherbin and I. P. Shaskol'skii, “Krest'ianskaia voina v Finliandii v kontse XVI v.,” Voprosy istorii, no. 8 (1981), 76–90.

57 Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion, 31–35. 102–23, 425.

58 Ibid., 20–21, 24. 109. 460–2.

59 Ibid., 7–8. 34, 133–4, 460. 464.

60 Ibid., xxiii–xxiv, 8–11, 24, 35, 70–77, 126, 133, 346, 462.

61 Blum, Jerome, “Prices in Russia in the Sixteenth Century,” The Journal of Economic History, 16:2 (June 1956), 198–9CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Hellie, “Warfare.” 75, 79.

62 Urlanis, V. Ts., Rost naseleniia v Evrope (Moscow: Statizdat, 1941), 190Google Scholar; Kopanev, A. I., “Naselenie Russkogo gosudarstva v XVI v.,” htoricheskie zapiski, 64 (1959) 233–54Google Scholar; Ia. Vodarskii, E., Naselenie Rossii za 400 let (XVI-nachalo XX vv.) (Moscow: “Prosveshchenie,” 1973), 27–29Google Scholar.

63 Kopanev, “Naselenie,” 241–2; Eaton, Henry L., “Decline and Recovery of the Russian Cities from 1500 to 1700,” Canadian-American Slavic Studies, 11:2 (Summer 1977), 227CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

64 Vodarskii, Naselenie, 27–29.

65 Hellie, “Warfare,” 80; Smith, Peasant Farming, 127–8.

66 Urlanis, Rost, 190; Kopanev. “Naselenie,” 245. 254; Keep, Soldiers, 88. Even scholars who calculate a more conservative population estimate of approximately eight million in 1600 assume a one-third increase in the population during the second half of the sixteenth century after a sharper rise during the first half of the century. See Goehrke, Carsten, “Zur Problem von Bevölkerungsziffer und Bevölkerungsdichte des Moskauer Reiches im 16. Jahrhundert.” For schungen zur osteuropäischen Geschichte, 24 (1978), 65–85Google Scholar.

67 G. V. Abramovich, “Novyi istochnik po istorii khlebnykh tsen v Rossii XVI v..” istoriia SSSR, no. 2 (1968), 117–8; Blum, “Prices.” 182–99; Koretskii, Formimvanie. 129, 145. 231–2; Smith. Peasant Farming, 143–6.

68 Roshkov, Sel'skoe khoziaistvo. 202–19, 283–6, 495–7.

69 Man'kov, A. G., Tseny i ikh dvizhenie v russkom gosudarstve XVI veka (Moscow-Leningrad: AN SSSR, 1951), 6, 32–33, 40–41. 53. 99–101Google Scholar. Others have estimated that the increase in livestock prices in the sixteenth century was on the order of 300 percent. See Smith, Peasant Farming, 237.

70 Bushkovitch, Paul, The Merchants of Moscow 1580–1650 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1980), 52, 54Google Scholar.

71 On the isolation of the Russian economy from the West, see Braudel, Fernand, The Perspective of the World (New York: Harper and Row, 1984), 441–4Google Scholar. On the other hand, Russian trade with the West, although modest, resulted in a significant importation of silver (up to 25 percent of the value of all imports), much of which was then exported to Persia. See Bushkovitch, Merchants, 62–63; Attman, Artur, The Bullion Flow Between Europe and the East 1000–1750 (Göteborg, 1981), 77–79, 109–11Google Scholar.

72 Blum. “Prices.” 182, 198–9; Mironov, Boris N., “In Search of Hidden Information.” Social Science History, 9:4 (Fall 1985), 342, 356 n. 1CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Man'kov, Tseny. 33–34.

73 Veselovskii, Feodal'noe zemlevladenie, 165–202; Blum. Lord and Peasant, 170–4.

74 Zimin, A. A., Reformx Ivanai Grozonogo (Moscow: Izdatel'stvo sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoi literatury, 1960), 223–4Google Scholar; Veselovskii. Feodal'noe zemlevladenie, 89, 308–9: Crummey, Formation. 104, 109–10: Kleimola. “Up Through Servitude.” 211–9.

75 Skrynnikov, “Civil War.” 70–71 : Rowland. “Did Muscovite Literary Ideology Place Limits.” 133–4. 139. 142, 144–5. 149. 156; Hunt. “Ivan IV's Personal Mythology.” 770–1.

76 Zimin. V kanun groznxkh potriasenii, 104–233: Skrynnikov. Rossiia v nachale XVII v., 28 37.79–103.

77 See. for example. Vremennik Ivana Timofeeva (Moscow-Leningrad, 1951), 111–2Google Scholar; Skazanie Avraamiia Palitsyna (Moscow-Leningrad, 1955), 258–9, 269Google Scholar; Rowland, Daniel, “The Problem of Advice in Muscovite Tales about the Time of Troubles.” Russian History, 6:2 (1979), 267–68CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

78 Platonov. Time of Troubles. 64–68 : Pavlov. Gosudarev dvor i polilicheskaia bor'ba pri Borise Goditnove; Margeret, Jacques, The Russian Empire and Grand Duchy of Muscovy: A Seventeenth-Century French Account (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburg Press, 1983), 60–61. 81Google Scholar.

79 Skrynnikov, R. G., “Glavnye vekhi razvitiia Russkogo dvorianstva v XVI-nachale XVII v.,” Cahiers du Monde russe et soviétique. 34: n. 1–2 (1993), 93–94. 96. 100Google Scholar: idem. “Civil War.” 71–72.

80 Blum. Lord ami Peasant. 155. 200–2. 211: Hellie. Enserfment, 29. 34. 39: Keep. Soldiers. 34. 42–45. 48–49.

81 Skrynnikov, “Civil War.” 72–73; Zimin, Refonny, 356; Skrynnikov, Rossiia v nachale XVII v., 21–22, 51–52; idem, “Glavnye vekhi,” 101–4; Dunning “Cossacks.” 60–62.

82 Hellie, Enserfment, 37.

83 Ibid., 47, 48–49, 238–9; idem, “Warfare,” 83–84.

84 Blum. Lord and Peasant. 177–8, 208–9; Keep, Soldiers, 32, 34, 42–44, 46–47; Skrynnikov. “Glavnye vekhi.” 102; idem, Smuta v Rossii, 5–6. 81–82, 91–92.

85 Skrynnikov, “Civil War.” 70; Kolycheva, Agrarnyi stroi, 183.

86 Hellie, Enserfment, 34, 39, 93–95. 97; Skrynnikov. “Glavnye vekhi,” 96. 100–1; Kolycheva, Agrarnyi stroi, 172, 174, 176–83, 187. 189.

87 Blum, “Prices,” 189–99; Man'kov, Tseny, 33–34. 119–20; Smith, Peasant Farming, 108.

88 Hellie, “Warfare,” 82–83; idem, Enserfment, 8–10, 16–17, 21, 31, 39, 95, 146–7. 262; idem, “Stratification,” 136, 140; Skrynnikov. “Civil War,” 72; idem, Smuta v Rossii, 6–7.

89 Hellie, Enserfment, 100–101; idem. “Stratification,” 145.

90 Kolycheva. Agrarnyi stroi, 195, 201; Mousnier, Peasant Uprisings, 331, 346; Crummey, Formation, 20–21.

91 Skrynnikov, R. G., Boris Godunov (Gulf Breeze, FL: Academic International Press, 1982), 121–2Google Scholar; Margeret, Russian Empire, 59.

92 Skrynnikov. Time of Troubles, 28; idem, Smuta v Rossii, 52.

93 Zlotnik, Marc D., “Muscovite Fiscal Policy. 1462–1584.” Russian History, 6:2 (1979), 243–58CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Veselovskii, S. B., Soshnoe pis'mo, 2 vols. (Moscow, 1915–1916), 2:360–2Google Scholar: Blum., Lord and Peasant, 158. 222. 228–9Google Scholar.

94 Smith. Peasant Farming, 143–6.

95 Hellie, , Enserfment, 45. 86. 115–6Google Scholar: Keep. Soldiers, 46–47 : Makovskii, , Razitie. 210. 385Google Scholar: Blum., Lord and Peasant, 155–8, 234–61Google Scholar; Smith, , Peasant Farming, 144. 223Google Scholar.

96 Blum, , Lord and Peasant, 154–5, 158. 235–43Google Scholar: Kolycheva. Agrarnyi stmi. 182–3. 187. 189; Crummey. Formation, 7–8: Makovskii. Razvitie, 392. 482: Mousnier. Peasant Uprisings, 162–3: Zimin. Oprichnina, 389–430; Eaton. “Decline and Recovery,” 224, 229.

97 Keep, J. L. H., “Bandits and the Law in Muscovy,” Slavonic and East European Review, 35:84 (December 1956), 201Google Scholar: Istoriia krest'ianstva SSSR, 2:423–4.

98 Kolycheva. Agrarnyi stroi, 189. 195–201.

99 Skrynnikov. Boris Godunov, 79–80. 119; idem.Smuta v Rossii, 179. 183: Mousnier. Peasant Uprisings, 181; Hellie, Enserfment, 103.

100 See. for example. Smirnov, Vosstanie Bolotnikova, 55–61; Istoriia krest'ianstva SSSR, 2:424–5Google Scholar: Hellie. Enserfment, 102; Makovskii. Razvitie, 484–5: Zimin. “Osnovnye etapy.” 49–50; Koretskii, V. I., “Bor'ba krest'ian s monastyriami v Rossii XVI–nachala XV11 v.,” in Voprosy istorii religii i ateizma, Sbornik statei, vol. 6 (Moscow: AN SSSR, 1958), 194, 197–200Google Scholar.

101 Skrynnikov. “Civil War,” 70. 72–73: idem, Smuta v Rossii, 252; Stanislavskii, Grazhdanskaia voina, 7–8. 36. 38. 243–7: Dunning. “Cossacks.” 62–65. 69, 71–72.

102 Kolycheva, Agramxi stroi, 169–204: Stanislavskii. Grazhdanskaia voina, 10–14. 19–20.

103 Keep. Soldiers. 34, 37–39, 72–74: Skrynnikov, Simtta v Rossii, 6.

104 Stanislavskii, Grazhdanskaia voina, 6–45, 243–7; Skrynnikov, Rossiia v nachale XVI v., 51–57, 104–11. 215–22: Dunning, “Cossacks.” 57–74.

105 Skrynnikov, Rossiia v nachale XVII v., pp. 41. 49: Margeret, Russian Empire, 58–59: Bushkovitch, Paul, “Taxation, Tax Farming, and Merchants in Sixteenth-Century Russia,” Slavic Review, 37:3 (1978), 357CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Culpepper, Jack, “The Legislative Origins of Peasant Bondage in Muskovy,” Forschungen zur osteuropaischen Geschichte, 14 (1969), 182–3Google Scholar.

106 Stanislavskii, Grazhdanskaia voina, 13: Skrynnikov, Smuta v Rossii, 183–4. 186; Keep. Soldiers, 73–74: Hellie, “Warfare,” 77–84.

107 Perrie, Maureen, “The Popular Image of Ivan the Terrible,” Slavonic and East European Review, 56:2 (1978), 279Google Scholar: idem, “Folklore as Evidence of Peasant Mentalite: Social Attitudes and Values in Russian Popular Culture.” The Russian Review, 48:2 (1989). 133, 139; Keenan. “Muscovite Political Folkways,” 140; Kliuchevskii. Sochineniia, 3:53.

108 Platonov. Time of Troubles, 42–43. 64–68: Skrynnikov. Boris Godunov, 108–10: Skazanie Avrcuuniia Palitsyna, 252–3; Margeret, Russian Empire, 81; Pavlov, Gosudarev dvor, 65.

109 Skrynnikov, Rossiia v nachale XVII v., 45–50: idem, Boris Godunov, 124.

110 Skrynnikov. “Civil War.” 64. 70. 72–75; idem, Smuta v Rossii, 7–8. 81–82, 91–92. 112–5, 179. 183. 252: idem. “Glavnye vekhi.” 100. 103: Stanislavskii. Grazhdanskaia voina, 11. 17–20; Dunning, “Cossacks,” 59–63; Hellie. “Stratification,” 145; idem. Enseifment. 103; Keep, Soldiers. 19. 30–32. 62–63. 73–74; Platonov. Ocherki. 241–2; idem.Time of Troubles, 38–39.

111 See the review by Richards, Michael in Journal of Social History, 26 (Summer 1993), 876–7CrossRefGoogle Scholar: by Migdal, Joel in Comparative Political Studies, 25:4 (1993), 610CrossRefGoogle Scholar; by Faure, David in The Journal of Asian Studies, 50:4 (1991), 886CrossRefGoogle Scholar; by Velde, Francois in Journal of Economic History, 54:1 (March 1994), 199CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Atwell, William S., “A Seventeenth-Century ‘General Crisis’ in East Asia?.” Modern Asian Studies. 24:4 (1990), 672–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar: review by Kimmel, Michael in Social Forces, 70:3 (March 1992), 831Google Scholar: Lawrence Stone, “The Revolution Over the Revolution,” The New York Review of Books (June 11. 1992). 51: Steensgaard, Niels, “The Seventeenth-Century Crisis and the Unity of Eurasian History.” Modern Asian Studies, 24:4 (1990), 691CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

112 See the review by Velde, Francois in Journal of Economic History, 54:1 (March 1994), 199CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and by Kimmel, Michael in Social Forces, 70:3 (March 1992), 831Google Scholar. See also Skocpol, Theda, Stales and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), 14. 25–32. 110–1, 154CrossRefGoogle Scholar: Martin, John E., Feudalism to Capitalism (London: Macmillan, 1986), 110–2CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

113 Goldstone, , Revolution and Rebellion, 27. 418–20, 450–4, 458Google Scholar.

114 See positive comments in the review by Markoff, John in American Journal of Sociology, 98:4 (January 1993), 921CrossRefGoogle Scholar; critical comments in reviews by Migdal, Joel in Comparative Political Studies, 25:4 (1993), 610CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and by Richards, Michael in Journal of Social History, 26 (Summer 1993), 877CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

115 “More work needs to be done to test the applicability of Goldstone's ideas about “ideologies of rectification’ to Russia. Nonetheless, his comments are similar to those made by scholars studying Russian culture in the years following the Time of Troubles. See. for example. Keenan. “Muscovite Political Folkways.” 152–6; Kivelson. “The Devil Stole His Mind.” 733–4. 749–50; Rowland. “The Problem of Advice.” 279–82; Bushkovitch, Paul, Religion and Society in Russia: The Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), 131CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

116 The American Historical Review, 97:5 (December 1992), 1489CrossRefGoogle Scholar.