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Major Determinants of China's Fertility Transition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 February 2009

Peng Xizhe
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During the past four decades China has experienced a dramatic fertility transition. Her national total fertility rate (TFR) was approximately 5·8 in the mid 1950s and remained at this level until the end of the 1960s. Since the early 1970s fertility transition has accelerated. The national TFR declined from 5·7 in 1970 to 3·6 in 1975, and down further to 2·31 in 1980. In other words, China’s fertility decreased by more than 50 per cent in only one decade. More recently, China’s fertility rose slightly, due mainly to a relaxation of birth control measures and a large marriage boom. Nevertheless, China’s fertility remains at a low level.

Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 117 , March 1989 , pp. 1 - 37
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1989

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References

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30. An index of overall fertility (Fi) is created. This is:

Fi = Dij * Rij

Where i = age cohort

j = educational or occupational categories (as used in In log-linear models above)

Djj=percentage distribution of cohort i category j

Rjj=ratio of mean parity for cohort i category j to reference (see Tables 1 and 2).

By using the index, overall fertility levels of the different age cohorts can be compared directly. Here, the ratios for the 50+ cohort have been chosen as the “standard” schedule and the educational (occupational) distributions are multiplied by that “standard.” The resulting FiS are then compared with that of the 50+ cohort. Differences between FiS for the 50+ cohort and standardized F;S for the other age cohorts are estimated for six province groups respectively, which can be regarded as the net impact of distributional changes on overall fertility.

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