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Feeding Fujian: Grain Production and Trade, 1986–1996

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 February 2009

Thomas P. Lyons
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Abstract

Recent years have seen a flurry of debate about China's ability to feed itself. In his article “Who will feed China?” and his book of the same title, Lester Brown predicted that China would need grain imports of 200 million tonnes by the year 2030 – an amount that would severely tax the world grain market. Scholars and journalists, both in China and abroad, have weighed in with contradictory analyses and predictions.

Type
Research Article
Information
The China Quarterly , Volume 155 , September 1998 , pp. 512 - 545
Copyright
Copyright © The China Quarterly 1998

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References

1.Brown, Lester R., “Who will feed China?” World Watch, No. 7 (1994), pp. 10–19Google Scholar, and Who will Feed China? (New York: W.W. Norton, 1995).Google Scholar

2. For example, Scott, Rozelle, Jikun, Huang and Mark, Rosegrant, “Why China will not starve the world,” Choices, first quarter (1996), pp. 18–25Google Scholar; Johnson, D. Gale, “Does China have a grain problem?” China Economic Review, Vol. 4, No. 1 (1994), pp. 1–14CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Nikos, Alexandratos, “China's projected cereals deficits in a world context,” Agricultural Economics, Vol. 15, No. 1 (1996), pp. 1–16Google Scholar; Tso, T. C., “Population and food in China: future projections,” AACS American Association for Chinese Studies Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 1 (1996), pp. 4–9Google Scholar; and Wu, Harry X. and Christopher, Findlay, “China's grain demand and supply: trade implications” (Working Paper 97/4, Chinese Economic Research Centre, University of Adelaide, 1997Google Scholar). For Chinese views, see, e.g. Jiang, Wandi, “Research unveils China's agricultural potential,” Beijing Review, 19–25 06 1995, pp. 7–8Google Scholar; Nong, Ruan, “Who will be able to feed China?” Beijing Review, 10–16 07, pp. 11–15Google Scholar; and “China can feed itself,” Beijing Review, 16–22 12 1996, pp. 7–9.Google Scholar For more general studies of grain in China, see, e.g. Ross, Garnaut and Ma, Guonan, Grain in China (Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, 1992)Google Scholar; and Nongye, bu, Zhongguo liangshi fazhan zhanlüe duice (Strategies for Grain Development in China) (Beijing: Nongye, 1990).Google Scholar

3. For earlier studies focusing on particular regions, see Ross, Garnaut and Ma, Guonan, “The grain economy of Guangdong,”Google Scholar in Garnaut, Ross, Guo, Shutian and Ma, Guonan, (eds.), The Third Revolution in the Chinese Countryside (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 201–218CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Albert, Park, Scott, Rozelle and Fang, Cai, “China's grain policy reforms: implications for equity, stabilization, and efficiency,” China Economic Review, Vol. 4, No. 1 (1994), pp. 15–33.Google Scholar

4. This paper focuses on the period since 1986 or so; for analysis of earlier years, see Lyons, Thomas P., “Grain in Fujian: intra-provincial patterns of production and trade, 1952–1988,” The China Quarterly, No. 129 (1992), pp. 184–215CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and “Commercial reform in Fujian: the grain trade of Fujian province, 1978–1988,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 41, No. 4 (1993), pp. 691–736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

5. Suppose 10 tonnes of grain are used and eight produced; the difference (as in Table 1) is two tonnes. If, however, one ton is actually lost (in transport, storage, etc), the actual deficit is three tonnes. Chinese statistics concerning grain use do not always make allowance for such losses. The differences in Table 1, though referred to in the text as “deficits,” can be viewed more accurately as lower-bound estimates thereof.Google Scholar

6. More precisely, consistent over the period since 1988. Before then, most provincial output data were based on county-level output reports, rather than yield surveys. The data in Table 1 are based on the survey method throughout.Google Scholar

7. Fujian sheng tongji ju, Fujian tongji nianjian 1996 (Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1996) (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji, 1996), p. 148Google Scholar; Fujian jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1993 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1993), pp. 222–23.Google Scholar

8. Fujian sheng tongji ju, Fujian tongji nianjian 1987 (Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1987) (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji, 1987), pp. 112–13Google Scholar; Fujian sheng tongji ju, Fujian tongji nianjian 1997 (Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1997) (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji, 1997), pp. 167–68.Google Scholar

9. For further comment concerning feedgrain (at the national level), see, e.g. Garnaut, and Ma, , Grain in China, ch. 7Google Scholar; and Claude, Aubert, “Problems of agricultural diversification: animal husbandry and grain utilization in China,” in Vermeer, E. B. (ed.), From Peasant to Entrepreneur: Growth and Change in Rural China (Wageningen: Pudoc, 1992), pp. 105–128.Google Scholar

10. For further explanation, see Lyons, “Commercial reform.”Google Scholar

11. Throughout this paper “tonne” means metric tonne (1,000 kilograms). A mu is one-fifteenth of a hectare.Google Scholar

12.Yang, Yongxing, “Wo sheng liangshi gou-xiao jiage gaige” (“Reform of grain prices in Fujian”), Fujian jingji (The Fujian Economy) No. 6 (1994), p. 5Google Scholar; Huang, Wanxiang, “Jiejue Fujian sheng ‘chi fan’ wenti de zhanlüe sikao” (“Thoughts on solving Fujian's food problem”), Fujian luntan (jingji shehui ban) (Fujian Forum (Economy and Society)), Nos. 9–10 (combined) (1995), p. 48.Google Scholar

13. For further comparison of provincial output levels and growth rates through the mid-1990s, see Enjiang, Cheng, Christopher, Findlay and Andrew, Watson, “Internal reform, budget issues, and the internationalization of the grain market in China” (Working Paper 97/1, Chinese Economic Research Centre, University of Adelaide, 1997).Google Scholar

14. The number of farm workers is not explicitly considered, since Fujian has not as yet experienced a general shortage of farm labour.Google Scholar

15. Throughout this paper, “rice” covers seedlings (yang), paddy (dao) and husked rice (mi); “paddy” refers to bunded rice fields.Google Scholar

16. Fujian has three rice seasons (but not, of course, all three everywhere): early; single (“middle,” “semi-late,” “single-late”); and double-cropped late. Early rice typically matures in 120 days, late rice in 150. In 1996, the three crops accounted for 38.5 (early), 25.2 (middle), and 36.3% of rice output.Google Scholar

17.Fujian ribao, 4 11 1990, p. 3Google Scholar; Fujian jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1990 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1990) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1990), p. 104Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 18 01 1991, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 3 04 1992, p. 3Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 25 03 1993, p. 7Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 30 11 1995, p. 6Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 12 05 1996, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 17 12 1996, p. 3.Google Scholar

18. See Yue, He, “New cropping patterns in Fujian: the diffusion of innovation under reform” (unpublished, Cornell University, 06 1997).Google Scholar

19. Of course, these shares would be somewhat smaller if – as generally believed – cultivated areas are underreported.Google Scholar

20. For example, Fujian ribao, 7 03 1990, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 22 01 1997, p. 6.Google Scholar

21. Again, the multiple-cropping indices would be somewhat smaller if cultivated areas are underreported (and are underreported to a greater extent than are sown areas).Google Scholar

22. “Non-traditional” in specific regionsGoogle Scholar; all of these practices have long histories in some parts of Fujian. Concerning the practices listed here, see Fujian ribao, 8 06 1990, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 21 10 1990, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 21 05 1992, p. 6Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 24 06 1992, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 21 09 1992, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 17 11 1993, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 24 10 1994, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 8 05 1995, p. 2.Google Scholar

23. In other words, most of the increase in output would have occurred even if yield had not changed, given the observed increase in area. (The interaction term, between sown area and yield, accounts for only about 2% of the total increment and is divided equally here between change in area and change in yield.)Google Scholar

24. Irrigation figures were revised downward in 1989, apparently in recognition of inflation in the previous series or in an attempt to unify the different accounts maintained, until then, by separate agencies. Table 3 includes only revised figures (and hence no figures for 19881986–)Google Scholar. For an explanation of Chinese statistics pertaining to irrigation, see Nickum, James E., Dam Lies and Other Statistics: Taking the Measure of Irrigation in China, 1931–91 (Honolulu: East West Center, 1995).Google Scholar

25.Fujian ribao, 12 11 1994, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian Economic Yearbook 1990, pp. 70–72Google Scholar; Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 124Google Scholar; Fujian nianjian bianzuan weiyuanhui, Fujian nianjian 1996 (Fujian Yearbook 1996) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1996), pp. 32, 130, 228.Google Scholar

26.Shen, Yajun, “Xiang shichang jingji tizhi zhuangui zhong de Fujian nongye fazhan wenti” (“Problems in Fujian's agricultural development during the transition to a market system”) (unpublished, Fujian sheng fazhan yanjiu zhongxin, 1994), p. 3.Google Scholar

27. For example, Fujian ribao, 4 01 1990, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 26 10 1992, p. 4Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 28 03, p. 4.Google Scholar

28. Fujian nianjian bianzuan weiyuanhui, Fujian nianjian 1995 (Fujian Yearbook 1995) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1995), pp. 9–10, 483Google Scholar; Fujian Yearbook 1996, pp. 129, 485.Google Scholar

29.Zheng, Zemei, “Tuokuan silu, cujin Fujian liangshi shengchan wending fazhan” (“Promoting steady development of grain production in Fujian”), Fujian luntan (jingji shehui ban) (Fujian Forum (Economy and Society)), No. 12 (1994), p. 51Google Scholar; Xu, Zhihua, “Wending fazhan liangshi shengchan de ji dian kanfa” (“Some thoughts on steady development of grain production”), Fujian jingji (The Fujian Economy), No. 3 (1995), p. 21Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 3 02 1991, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian Yearbook 1995, p. 96Google Scholar; Fujian jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1986 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1986) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1986), p. 108.Google ScholarIt is not always clear exactly what “low yield” means; for Pucheng county in 1990, it meant expected yields of less than 400 kilograms per mu; Fujian ribao, 27 06 1990, p. 4.Google Scholar

30.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1990, p. 662.Google Scholar

31. Relevant statistics are given in, e.g. Fujian ribao, 3 02 1991, p. 1Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 4 02 1995, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1991 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1991) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1991), pp. 112, 116Google Scholar; Fujian jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1992 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1992) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1992), pp. 113, 662Google Scholar; Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 124Google Scholar; Fujian Yearbook 1995, p. 99.Google Scholar

32. For example, Fujian ribao, 3 05 1991, p. 3Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 4 01 1992, p. 2.Google Scholar

33. For example, Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 124Google Scholar; Fujian Yearbook 1995, p. 99Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 14 03 1990, p. 2Google Scholar; Fujian ribao, 3 04 1990, p. 1.Google Scholar

34.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1990, p. 94Google Scholar; Fujian Economic Yearbook 1991, pp. 115–16; for a county example, Fujian ribao, 10 03 1990, p. 2.Google Scholar

35.Fujian Yearbook 1996, p. 130Google Scholar; Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1996, p. 77.Google Scholar

36.Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1996, p. 98.Google Scholar

37. World 1992: 87.4 kg/ha. U.S. 1992–1993: 101.1. Fertilizer-intensive agricultures, 1992–1993: South Korea, 465.6, kg; the Netherlands, 588.9; New Zealand, 1,274.5. The figure for Fujian is probably somewhat high, due to underreporting of cultivated area; correction would not affect the general conclusions drawn in the text. The World Bank, World Development Report 1995 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995), pp. 168–69.Google Scholar

38.Fujian ribao, 6 05 1992, p. 1.Google Scholar

39. Derived as the difference between use and output (in nutrient content) in 1994 and 1995, with a ratio of nutrient content to actual weight of about 0.45. For output data, see Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1996, p. 210.Google Scholar

40.Fujian ribao, 31 04 1994, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 11 01 1996, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, p. 162.Google Scholar

41. Agricultural supply departments are operated by the Supply and Marketing Co-operatives, which remain under close state control. The problems of this system are well-known. Concerning Fujian in particular, see Lyons, Thomas P., “Economic reform in China: another view from the villages,” in Lyons, Thomas P. and Nee, Victor (eds.), The Economic Transformation of South China (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, East Asia Series, 1993).Google Scholar

42.Fujian ribao, 14 11 1994, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 1 05 1995, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 24 07 1995, p. 7;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1995, p. 133;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, p. 127.Google Scholar

43. For example, Fujian ribao, 7 02 1996, p. 6.Google Scholar

44.Fujian ribao, 26 05 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 11 02 1997, p. 2.Google Scholar

45. Only a few hundred thousand mu were planted to early hybrids in 1983, and 3,268,600 mu (37% coverage) as of 1992; Fujian, sheng jihua weiyuanhui, Fujian nongye daquan (Compendium on Fujian's Agriculture) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1991), p. 183, andGoogle ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 124.Google Scholar

46.Fujian ribao, 19 08 1992, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 9 11 1992, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 124;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 9 01 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, pp. 129–130;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 17 02 1997, p. 2.Google Scholar

47.Fujian ribao, 28 12 1993, p. 7;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 20 07 1994, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 10 02 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 24 02 1992, p. 1.Google Scholar

48. For example, Fujian ribao, 1 12 1993, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 10 12 1993, p. 5;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 1 08 1994, p. 7;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 21 08 1994, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 17 01 1996, p. 2.Google Scholar

49.Fujian ribao, 4 11 1990, p. 3;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 24 05 1991, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1995, p. 99;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, p. 130.Google Scholar

50.Fujian ribao, 19 02 1997, p. 6.Google Scholar

51.Fujian ribao, 11 01 1991, p. 3;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 22 10 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, p. 486.Google Scholar

52.Fujian ribao, 20 10 1993, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 19 02 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 20 09 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 12 01 1997, p. 1.Google Scholar

53. For example, Fujian Economic Yearbook 1992, p. 113;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 124;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 4 02 1995, p. 2.Google Scholar

54.Fujian ribao, 17 06 1990, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 8 11 1990, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 12 08 1991, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 1 06 1992, p. 1.Google Scholar

55. For example, Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 120;Google ScholarFujian, jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1994 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1994) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1994), p. 113;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1995, p. 95.Google Scholar

56. In addition to sources cited in the preceding note, see, for examples, Fujian ribao, 20 09 1992, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 8 10 1992, p. 4; andGoogle ScholarFujian ribao, 24 02 1993, p. 1.Google Scholar

57.Zheng, Zemei, “Promoting steady development of grain production in Fujian,” p. 51;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1995, p. 99; Liao, Wenxing, Lin, Zhaoli and Yao, Jian,“Wanshan wo sheng nongye kexue tuiguang tixi de duice yanjiu” (“On improving Fujian's agricultural extension system”), Fujian jingji (The Fujian Economy), No. 4 (1995), pp. 9–12.Google Scholar

58. Developments in Fujian through the later 1980s are examined at length in Lyons, “Grain in Fujian,” and Lyons, “Commercial reform.” Concerning national reforms of the 1990s, see, e.g. Christopher, Findlay, “Grain sector reform in China” (Working Paper 97/1, Chinese Economic Research Centre, University of Adelaide, 1997);Google ScholarGarnaut, Guo and Ma, , Third Revolution; andCrossRefGoogle ScholarCrook, Frederick W., “Current agricultural policies highlight concerns about food security,” China: Situation and Outlook (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, 1997), pp. 19–25.Google Scholar

59.Fujian, jingji nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Fujian jingji nianjian 1989 (Fujian Economic Yearbook 1989) (Fuzhou: Fujian jingji nianjian she, 1989), p. 245.Google Scholar

60.Nongye, bu, Zhongguo nongye nianjian 1989 (Yearbook of China's Agriculture 1989) (Beijing: Nongye, 1989), p. 562;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1989, p. 245.Google Scholar

61.Fujian ribao, 20 10 1990, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1991, p. 667.Google Scholar

62.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1990, p. 716;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1991, p. 225.Google Scholar

63.Fujian ribao, 22 07 1990, p. 1.Google Scholar

64. That is, grain was much less profitable than alternative uses of farm resources. Farmers' perceptions do not in themselves establish that profitability of grain actually fell. (Yields were rising, as well as input prices.) Many surveys of this period, however, do find low and/or declining profitability; see, e.g. Fujian ribao, 23 11 1992, p. 4;Google Scholar see also Shen, , “Problems in Fujian's agricultural development during the transition to a market system,” p. 4.Google Scholar

65. Concerning provincial grain policy during this period, see Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993, pp. 15, 82;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 29 12 1993, p. 3.Google Scholar

66. The intention of setting up such a fund was announced in late 1989, initially called the “negotiated-price grain reserve fund” (“yijia liangshi jingying fengxian jijin”). It later became the provincial “grain fund” (“liangshi fengxian jijin”), in accordance with a central decision mandating such funds nation-wide. See Fujian ribao, 8 02 1990, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1990, p. 225;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 25 02 1993, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, p. 161.Google Scholar

67.Fujian ribao, 25 02 1993, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 10 06 1993, p. 1.Google Scholar

68.Huang, , “Thoughts on solving Fujian's food problem,” pp. 48–49;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 14 01 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 13 04 1995, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 6 06 1995, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1996, pp. 115, 166.Google ScholarConcerning fall procurement in 1994, Fujian ribao, 6 11 1994, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 22 11 1994, p. 2.Google Scholar

69. For example, Crook, “Current agricultural policies,” pp. 20–21; and Cheng, Findlay, and Watson, “Internal reform,” pp. 14–16.Google Scholar

70.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1996, p. 129.Google Scholar

71. For 1996 grain policies, see also the provincial grain work conference, Fujian ribao, 1 11 1996, p. 1, and provincial economic work conference,Google ScholarFujian ribao, 24 12 1996, pp. 1, 2.Google Scholar

72.Fujian ribao, 14 08 1995, p. 6.Google Scholar

73.Fujian ribao, 3 03 1994, p. 1.Google Scholar

74.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1990, pp. 214, 225;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1992, p. 217.Google Scholar

75.Fujian ribao, 19 03 1992, p. 1;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 21 03 1992, p. 1.Google Scholar

76.Fujian, sheng tongji ju, Fujian tongji nianjian 1983 (Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1983) (Fuzhou: Fujian renmin, 1984), p. 179;Google ScholarFujian, sheng tongji ju, Fujian tongji nianjian 1993 (Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1993) (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji, 1993), p. 154;Google ScholarFujian Statistical Yearbook 1996, p. 139.Google Scholar

77. “Jishu maoyi jiage zhishu, yi tong qi guoying shangye jiage wei 100, liangshe” (“Free market price index, taking state-commerce prices of the same period as 100, grain only”), Fujian Statistical Yearbook 1992, p. 322;Google ScholarFujian Statistical Yearbook 1994, p. 134.Google Scholar

78. This is true only at the retail level; the state grain system dominates the wholesale trade by controlling the bulk of procurement-plus-inflows.Google Scholar

79.Fujian ribao, 19 06 1995, p. 4;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 11 11 1995, p. 2;Google ScholarYin, Yuncai, “Liang tiao xian yunxing: liangshi liutong tizhi gaige de xin silu” (“Two-track circulation: more on reform of the grain circulation system”), Fujian luntan (jingji shehui ban) (Fujian Forum (Economy and Society)), Nos. 9–10 (combined) (1995), pp. 91–92.Google Scholar

80.Liao, Wenxing, Lin, Zhaoli and He, Qin, “Wending liangshi shengchan, zengjia shiwu zong liang” (“Stabilizing grain production and increasing total food supply”), Fujian luntan (jingji shehui ban) (Fujian Forum (Economy and Society)), No. 4 (1995), pp. 35–37;Google ScholarFujian Yearbook 1995, p. 95;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 22 05 1996, p. 6.Google Scholar

81. This is typical of “household production,” and is essentially a matter of elasticities. As the farmgate price of grain increases, how much does production increase, how does income increase, and what is the net impact on sales? The relevant elasticities involve (1) a positive income effect, from the increase in income originating in grain as a product being sold, (2) a negative income effect, and (3) a negative substitution effect – the last two originating in the price of grain as an object of consumption.Google Scholar

82.Fujian ribao, 4 11 1996, p. 2;Google ScholarFujian ribao, 11 01 1992, p. 2.Google Scholar

83.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1991, p. 228;Google ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 224.Google Scholar

84. Data for the mid-1980s are collected in Lyons, “Commercial reform,” p. 720.Google Scholar

85.Fujian ribao, 26 04 1994, p. 1, and Table 9.Google Scholar

86. Of course, some divergence in these time paths is to be expected due to changes in stocks on-hand.Google Scholar

87. For example, 240,000 tonnes of quota rice in 1990, plus market purchases of rice and other grains; Fujian Economic Yearbook 1991, p. 228.Google Scholar

88. That is, state inflows plus private inflows plus state and private intercounty transfers. The magnitude estimated in the text is roughly consistent with reported transport of grain (4.07 million tonnes in 1991 and 3.3 million tonnes in 1993 of grain and vegetable oil); Fujian Economic Yearbook 1992, p. 218, andGoogle ScholarFujian Economic Yearbook 1994, pp. 176–77.Google Scholar

89. This does not imply that all grain should always be stored in facilities that minimize wastage. Such facilities are costly. The benefits of protecting grain even in periods of unusually large stocks must be set against these costs as well as the underutilization of storage capacity in leaner years.Google Scholar

90.Fujian Economic Yearbook 1993, p. 224. It is not clear to what extent such measures have actually saved grain.Google Scholar