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Prospective Aging of the Population and Its Implications For the Labour Force and Government Expenditures

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 November 2010

Frank T. Denton ,
Christine H. Feaver  and
Byron G. Spencer
Frank T. Denton
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Christine H. Feaver
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Byron G. Spencer
Affiliation:
McMaster University
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Abstract

Canada's demographic situation in the future will differ substantially from what we have known in the past. Unless there is an early return to high fertility the average age of both the population and the labour force will increase substantially, while the overall dependency ratio will be low by historical standards. Our analysis suggests that up to about 2010 population change will have less of an impact on the real (i.e., constant—price) level of aggregate government expenditures than on the size of the real gross national product However, we can anticipate compositional changes in government expenditures as a result of population change: very large increases in the real social security costs, lesser (but still large) increases in health costs, and a reduction in education costs. Finally, a relatively large portion of the aggregate expenditure increases will be at the federal government level.

Résumé

La situation démographique du Canada dans l'avenir sera sensiblement différente de celle que nous avons connues dans le passé. A moins d'un retour à un taux de fécondité élevé, la moyenne des âges augementera sensiblement tant dans la population que dans la main d'oeuvre, cependant que le rapport de dépendance sera faible par rapport aux normes historiques. Notre analyse permet de penser que jusque vers 2010 la transformation démographique aura un impact moindre sur le taux réel (c.-à-d. prix constant) de l'ensemble des dépenses de l'État que sur le produit national brut. On peut toutefois anticiper une modification dans la composition des dépenses de l'État par suite de la transformation démographique: augmentation considérable des coûts réels de la sécurité sociale, augmentation moindre (mais encore importante) des coûts afférents à la santé, et diminution des coûts afférents à l'éducation. Enfin, une portion assez importante de l'augmentation des dépenses intéressera le palier fédéral.

Keywords

agingpopulationlabour forcegovernment expendituresprojections
Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 5 , Issue 2 , Summer/L'été 1986 , pp. 75 - 98
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 1986

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References

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