Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-vdxz6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T06:20:41.009Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

It's the Christian Democrats' Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957–2012

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 January 2016

Patricio Navia  and
Rodrigo Osorio
Patricio Navia*
Affiliation:
New York University/Universidad Diego Portales
Rodrigo Osorio*
Affiliation:
Universidad de Santiago de Chile/Universidad Diego Portales
*
New York University/Universidad Diego Portales, 726 Broadway, Room 666, New York NY, 10003, [email protected]
Universidad de Santiago de Chile/Universidad Diego Portales, Ejercito 333, Santiago, Chile, [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

For different reasons, identification with political parties has been on the decline everywhere. Using polling data, we show that political identification in Chile increased in times of polarization before 1973 and in the transition to democracy in 1990 and fell under democratic consolidation. The decline comes primarily from falling identification with the largest party, the centrist Christian Democratic Party (PDC). Assessing the determinants of party identification, we report that while in the 1960s the PDC had a wide appeal as it attracted voters identified with the left, centre and right, in recent years the PDC attracts support from centrists and older people.

Résumé

Pour différentes raisons, l'identification partisane est en diminution partout. À partir de données de sondages, nous démontrons que l'identification partisane au Chili a augmenté durant la période de polarisation politique antérieure à 1973, ainsi que durant la période de transition démocratique des années 1990, avant de diminuer durant la période de consolidation démocratique. Le principal facteur qui explique ce déclin est la chute de l'identification avec le plus important parti politique, le Parti de la Démocratie chrétienne (PDC) situé au centre de l’échiquier politique. L'analyse des déterminants de l'identification partisane révèle que durant les années 1960, le PDC attirait des électeurs de gauche, de centre et de droite alors que depuis les dernières années, il attire essentiellement des électeurs de centre et plus âgés.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 48 , Issue 4 , December 2015 , pp. 815 - 838
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Angell, Alan. 1972. Partidos políticos y movimiento obrero en Chile. Mexico DF: Ediciones ERA.Google Scholar
Angell, Alan. 2003. “Party Change in Chile in Comparative Perspective.” Revista de Ciencia Politica 23 (2): 88–108.Google Scholar
Atria, Fernando, Larraín, Guillermo, Benavente, José Miguel, Couso, Javier, and Joignant, Alfredo. 2013. El otro modelo. Del orden neoliberal al régimen de lo público. Santiago: Debate.Google Scholar
Bargsted, Matías A. and Somma, Nicolás M. 2013. “Social cleavages and political dealignment in contemporary Chile, 1995–2009.” Party Politics. Doi: 1354068813514865.Google Scholar
Bonilla, Claudio, Carlin, Ryan E., Love, Gregory J. and Méndez, Ernesto Silva. 2011. “Social or political cleavages? A spatial analysis of the party system in post-authoritarian Chile.” Public Choice 146 (1): 9–21.Google Scholar
Briceño, Renato and Navia, Patricio. 2008. “El PDC y la votación de Ricardo Lagos en las presidenciales de 1999.” Revista de Ciencia Política 28 (2):107–31.Google Scholar
Cain, Bruce E., Ferejohn, John and Fiorina, Morris P.. 1987. The Personal Vote: Constituency Service and Electoral Independence. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E and Stokes, Donald E. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Carreras, Miguel, Morgenstern, Scott and Su, Yen-Pin. 2013. “Refining the theory of partisan alignments Evidence from Latin America.” Party Politics. Doi: 1354068813491538.Google Scholar
Collier, Simon and Sater, William F.. 1996. A History of Chile. 1808–1994. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael. 1997. “District Magnitude, Economic Performance, and Party System Fragmentation in Five Latin American Countries.” Comparative Political Studies in Comparative International Development 30 (1):156–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coppedge, Michael. 1998. “The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems.” Party Politics 4 (4): 547–68.Google Scholar
Correa Sutil, Sofía. 2005. Con las riendas del poder. La derecha chilena en el siglo XX. Santiago: Editorial Sudamericana.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. 2004. Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices. The Erosion of Political Support in Advanced Industrial Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. and Weldon, S.. 2007. “Partisanship and party system institutionalization.” Party Politics 13 (2):179–96.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell and Wattenberg, Martin. 2000. Parties without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J., Flanagan, S.C., Beck, P.A. and Alt, J.E.. 1984. Electoral change in advanced industrial democracies: realignment or dealignment? Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Dow, J. K. 1998. “A Spatial Analysis of Candidates in Dual Member Districts: The 1989 Chilean Senatorial Elections” Public Choice 97: 119–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drake, Paul W. 1978. Socialism and Populism in Chile. 1932–1952. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Drummond, Andrew J. 2006. “Electoral Volatility and Party Decline in Western Democracies: 1970–1995.” Political Studies 54 (3): 628–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M. and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B. and Stimson, James. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Fleet, Michael. 1985. The Rise and Fall of Chilean Christian Democracy. Princeton N.J: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Garretón, Manuel Antonio. 1989. The Chilean Political Process. Boston, Unwin Hyman.Google Scholar
Garretón, Manuel Antonio. 2000. “Chile's Election: Change and Continuity.” Journal of Democracy 11 (2): 78–84.Google Scholar
Grayson, George. 1968. El Partido Demócrata Cristiano Chileno. Santiago: Editorial Francisco de Aguirre.Google Scholar
Hagopian, Frances. 1998. “Democracy and political representation in Latin America in the 1990s: Pause, reorganization, or decline?” In Fault lines of democracy in post-transition Latin America, ed. Agüero, Felipe and Stark, Jeffrey. Coral Gables Fl: North-South Center Press, University of Miami.Google Scholar
Holmberg, Sören. 2007. “Partisanship Reconsidered.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, R.J. and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Huneeus, Carlos. 1998. “Malestar y desencanto en Chile: Legados del autoritarismo y costos de la transición.” Papeles de Trabajo. Corporación Tiempo 2000 (63).Google Scholar
Huneeus, Carlos. 2003. “Un partido con un alto grado de institucionalización: el PDC en Chile.” In Christian Democracy in Latin America, ed. Mainwaring, Scott and Scully, Timothy R.. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Huneeus, Carlos. 2005. “Las coaliciones de partidos: ¿Un nuevo escenario para el sistema partidista chileno?” Política 45: 68–86.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald. 2007. “Post Materialist Values and the Shift From Survival to Self-Expression Values.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, Russell J. and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Knutsen, Oddbjorn. 2007. “The Decline of Social Class?” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, Russell J and Klingemann, Hans-Dieter. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Latinobarometro. 2013. Informe Latinobarómetro 2013. Santiago: Latinobarómetro.Google Scholar
Lau, Richard R. and Redlawsk, David P.. 2006. How Voters Decide. Information Processing During Elections Campaigns. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
López, Miguel Ángel and Martínez, Gustavo. 1999. “Opinión pública y democracia: las encuestas en la redemocratización chilena.” In La Caja de Pandora. El retorno de la transición chilena, ed. Menéndez-Carrión, Amparo and Joignant, Alfredo. Santiago: Planeta.Google Scholar
Loveman, Brian. 1976. Struggle in the Countryside: Politics and Rural Labor in Chile, 1919–1973. Blomington IN: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo, and Altman, David. 2011. “Uprooted but Stable: Chilean Parties and the Concept of Party System Institutionalization.” Latin American Politics and Society 53 (2): 1–28.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo and Rosenblatt, Fernando. 2012. “¿Notas para una autopsia? Los partidos políticos en el Chile actual.” In Democracia con partidos. Informe para la reforma a los partidos políticos en Chile, ed. Javier Diaz, Francisco and Sierra, Lucas. Santiago: CEP/ CIEPLAN.Google Scholar
Luna, Juan Pablo, Toro, Sergio, Jaramillo-Brown, Nathalie, Salas, Valentina and Seligson, Mitchell. 2012. Cultura política de la democracia en Chile y en las Américas, 2012: Hacia la igualdad de oportunidades. Santiago: LAPOP/Ponitificia Universidad Católica.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B. Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. “Macropartisanship.” The American Political Science Review 83 (4): 1125–42.Google Scholar
Magar, Eric, Rosenblum, Marc R., and Samuels, David. 1998. “On the absence of centripetal incentives in double-member districts. The case of Chile.” Comparative Political Studies 31 (6): 714–39.Google Scholar
Mainwaring, Scott, Bejarano, Ana María and Pizarro, Eduardo. 2007. The Crisis of Democratic Representation in the Andes. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Mayol, Alberto. 2012. No al lucro. De la crisis del modelo a la nueva era política. Santiago: Random House Mondadori.Google Scholar
Montes, Juan E., Mainwaring, Scott and Ortega, Eugenio. 2000. “Rethinking the Chilean Party Systems.” Journal of Latin American Studies 32 (3) :795–824.Google Scholar
Morales, Mauricio. 2012. “The Concertación's Defeat in Chile's 2009–2010 Presidential Elections.” Latin American Politics and Society 54 (2): 79–107.Google Scholar
Morales, Mauricio and Poveda, Antonio. 2007. “El PDC: bases electorales, determinantes de adhesión e impacto en las votaciones de R. Lagos y M. Bachelet.” Estudios Públicos 107: 129–65.Google Scholar
Moulian, Tomás. 1993. La forja de ilusiones. El sistema de partidos 1932–1973. Santiago: FLACSO-ARCIS.Google Scholar
Moulián, Tomás. 1997. El Chile Actual. Anatomía de un mito. Santiago: LOM-Arcis.Google Scholar
Navia, Patricio. 2005. “Transformando votos en escaños: leyes electorales en Chile, 1833–2003.” Política y Gobierno 12 (2): 233–76.Google Scholar
Navia, Patricio and Osorio, Rodrigo. 2015. “Las encuestas de opinión pública en Chile antes de 1973.” Latin American Resarch Review 50 (1): 117–39.Google Scholar
PNUD. 1998. Informe de Desarrollo Humano en Chile. Las paradojas de la modernización. Santiago: PNUD.Google Scholar
Portales, Felipe. 2000. Chile. Una democracia tutelada. Santiago: Sudamericana.Google Scholar
Prothro, James W. and Chaparro, Patricio E.. 1974. “Public Opinion and the Movement of Chilean Government to the Left, 1952–72.” The Journal of Politics 36 (1): 2–43.Google Scholar
Riquelme, Alfredo. 1999. “¿Quiénes y por qué `no están ni ahí’? Marginación y/o automarginación en la democracia transicional. Chile. 1988–1997.” In El modelo chileno. Democracia y desarrollo en los noventa, ed. Drake, Paul and Jaksic, Ivan. Santiago: LOM.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M., and Wibbels, E.. 1999. “Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations.” American Political Science Review 93 (3): 575–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sartori, Giovanni. 1976. Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Scully, Timothy R. 1992. Rethinking the Center. Party Politics in Nineteenth- and Twentieth-Century Chile. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Segovia, Carolina. 2009. “¿Crisis de la política en Chile? Percepciones y valoraciones de los partidos” In La sociedad de la opinión. Reflexiones sobre encuestas y cambio político en democracia, ed. Cordero, Rodrigo. Santiago: Ediciones Universidad Diego Portales.Google Scholar
Siavelis, Peter. 2002. “Coalitions, Voters and Party System Transformation in Post-Authoritarian Chile.” Government and Opposition 37 (1): 76–105.Google Scholar
Siavelis, Peter. 2004. “Electoral System, Disintegration of Coalitions and Democracy in Chile: The End of the Concertacion?” Revista de Ciencia Politica 24 (1): 58–80.Google Scholar
Tironi, Eugenio, and Agüero, Felipe. 1999. “¿Sobrevivirá el nuevo paisaje político chileno?” Estudios Públicos 74: 151–68.Google Scholar
Torcal, Mariano and Mainwaring, Scott. 2003. “The Political Recrafting of Social Bases of Party Competition: Chile, 1973–95.” British Journal of Political Science 33 (1): 55–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Valenzuela, Arturo. 1978. The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Chile. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, Arturo. 1990. “Partidos políticos y crisis presidencial en Chile: Proposición de un gobierno parlamentario.” In Hacia una democracia moderna: La opción parlamentaria, ed. Linz, Juan, Lijphart, Arend, Valenzuela, Arturo and Godoy, Oscar. Santiago: Universidad Católica de Chile.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, Arturo and Valenzuela, J. Samuel, eds. 1976. Chile: Politics and Society. New Brunswick: Transaction Books.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, J. Samuel. 1995. “The Origins and Transformations of the Chilean Party System.” The Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies at Notre Dame University Working Paper #215.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, J. Samuel. 1999. “Respuesta a Eugenio Tironi y Felipe Agüero. Reflexiones sobre el presente y futuro del paisaje político chileno a la luz de su pasado.” Estudios Públicos 75: 273–90.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, J. Samuel and Scully, Timothy R. 1997. “Electoral choices and the party system in Chile. Continuities and changes at the recovery of democracy.” Comparative Politics 29 (4): 511–27.Google Scholar
Valenzuela, J. Samuel, Scully, Timothy R. and Somma, Nicolás. 2007. “The enduring presence of religion in Chilean ideological positioning and voter options.” Comparative Politics 40 (1): 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winn, Peter, ed. 2004. Victims of the Chilean Miracle. Workers and Neoliberalism in the Pinochet era, 1973–2002. Durham: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Zucco, Cesar. 2010. “Stability Without Roots: Party System Institutionalization in Brazil” Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2002359 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2002359 Google Scholar