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Issue-Attention and Punctuated Equilibria Models Reconsidered: An Empirical Examination of the Dynamics of Agenda-Setting in Canada*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2009

Michael Howlett
Michael Howlett
Affiliation:
Simon Fraser University
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Abstract

Most of the work on policy dynamics focuses on the agenda-setting stage of the policy cycle and argues that policy issues wax and wane in public attention, generating either a cyclical or evolutionary pattern of governmental activity in particular policy sectors. Anthony Downs's notion of a periodic “issue-attention cycle” and Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones's notion of a stepped or “punctuated equilibrium” pattern of policy change are prominent in the literature, but have received little empirical and virtually no cross-national verification. Utilizing the analysis of time-series data gathered on nuclear energy and acid rain issues appearing on government and public agendas in Canada over the period 1977–1992, this article elaborates the elements of the two models and subjects both to empirical testing. The article finds little support for either model in the Canadian case and argues the assumptions behind the models must be altered to account for this anomalous case.

Résumé

La plupart des travaux portant sur la dynamique des décisions gouvernementales met l'accent sur sur l'étape des échéances du cycle de changement d'orientations et démontre que les controverses sur les décisions croissent et décroissent avec le temps dans l'attention du public. Ce phénomène entraîne une tendance qui peut être soit un patron cyclique, soit évolutif au sein de certains secteurs de l'activité gouvernementale. Le concept de cycle périodique, nommé « cycle susceptible de soulever la controverse » par Anthony Downs et le concept d'un modèle « d'équilibre intermittent », ou modèle de changement d'orientation par étapes progressives, développé par Frank Baumgartner et Bryan Jones, abondent dans la littérature. Toutefois, ils ont été peu vérifiés à la fois empiriquement et à léchelle pan-étatiste. En se fondant sur les données des séries chronologiques sur l'énergie nucléaire ainsi que sur les controverses soulevées par le débat public portant sur les pluies acides entre 1977 et 1992, cette étude approfondit les éiéments des deux modèles considérés et les soumet à des tests empiriques. Cet article montre que ces deux modèles sont inadéquats lorsqu'appliqués au cas canadien et soutient que les hypothèses sur lesquelles elles reposent doivent être révisées pour prendre en considération ce qui apparaît comme une anomalie.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 30 , Issue 1 , March 1997 , pp. 3 - 29
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 1997

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References

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