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How Much of Electoral Politics Is in the District? Measuring District Effects on Party Support

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 December 2021

Marc André Bodet ,
Joanie Bouchard Open the ORCID record for Joanie Bouchard [Opens in a new window] ,
Melanee Thomas  and
Charles Tessier
Marc André Bodet*
Affiliation:
Département de science politique, Université Laval, Pavillon Charles-de-Koninck, Québec, QC G1V 0A6, Canada
Joanie Bouchard
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Western Ontario, Social Sciences Centre, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada
Melanee Thomas
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
Charles Tessier
Affiliation:
École de politique appliquée, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 boul. de l'Université, Sherbrooke, QC J1K 2R1, Canada
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

The electoral district is the fundamental unit of representation in single- and multi-member electoral systems, yet most research shows little interest in district effects on election outcomes, focusing instead on national and individual factors. This is problematic as parties and candidates often put a great deal of effort into district-based campaigns. How, then, can we best capture district effects on party support? We propose a new method using official election returns and geospatial techniques. The result is a measure of how much of a party's vote share is explained by district effects. Using data from the 2006–2019 Canadian federal elections, we find that, on average, 6 to 10 per cent of the variation in a party's vote in Canada is explained by district effects. While district effects on party support are trivial for some districts, in others they account for more than 80 per cent of the variance in party vote shares. The effect of districts on party support is composed, in part, of electoral context, province, socio-economic factors and district campaign intensity. Importantly, the size and sources of district effects on party support vary across parties, suggesting heterogeneity. The benefits of our approach are threefold: (1) it is cost-effective, (2) it can be easily replicated in any setting—past or present—where districts are relevant electoral units and where districting is nonpartisan, and (3) it is responsive to differences in district composition and parties’ campaign effort.

Résumé

Résumé

La circonscription électorale est l'unité de représentation fondamentale dans les modes de scrutin pluralitaires. Pourtant, la recherche a démontré jusqu’à maintenant peu d'intérêt pour le sujet se concentrant davantage sur les facteurs agrégés ou individuels. Cela pose un problème car les partis et les candidats fournissent des efforts considérables dans leurs campagnes de circonscription. Comment mesurer l'impact de ces circonscriptions dans l'appui pour les partis? Nous proposons une nouvelle méthode qui mise sur les techniques géo-spatiales et les données électorales des élections fédérales de 2006 à 2019. Nous concluons que l'effet des circonscriptions compte pour entre six et dix pourcents de la variation dans les appuis électoraux. Alors qu’à certains endroits, les circonscriptions ont un impact trivial, dans d'autres, elles expliquent plus de 80% de la variance. Cet effet est dû à des facteurs électoraux, provinciaux, socio-économiques et d'intensité de campagne. De plus, cet effet varie d'un parti à l'autre. Notre approche apporte trois bénéfices : (1) elle est avantageuse en termes coûts/bénéfices, (2) elle est facilement reproductible dans des contextes–passés ou futurs–où la circonscription électorale est une unité d'analyse pertinente et où le découpage électoral est non-partisan et (3) elle répond bien aux variations dans la composition des circonscriptions et des efforts de campagne.

Keywords

electoral districtsparty competitiongeospatial techniquesdistrict effectsparty supportcirconscriptions électoralescompétition partisanetechniques géospatialeseffets de circonscriptionsappuis aux partis
Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 55 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 150 - 170
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Canadian Political Science Association (l’Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique

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