P120: Exploring the utility of the Hamilton early warning score at triage: pilot study in a Canadian emergency department

Abstract

Introduction: Early warning scores (EWS) use vital signs to identify patients at risk of critical events as defined by unplanned intensive care unit (ICU) admission, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), or death. Systems that combine an EWS with a ICU outreach team can improve hospital survival and cardiac arrest rates. Although initially developed for use in ward patients, evidence suggests that EWS are useful in emergency department (ED) patients and may aid in the earlier identification of sepsis. The Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS) was recently developed as part of quality improvement process in our health system. The current study examined HEWS at ED triage among a cohort of patients who experienced a critical event during their hospitalization. HEWS were also evaluated as a predictor of sepsis. Methods: Patient were selected from a database of patients admitted to a medical or surgical ward at two tertiary care hospitals over a six-month period. Cases were patients who experienced a critical event during admission and were admitted via the ED. Controls were randomly selected from the database in a two-to-one ratio using an algorithm to match cases based upon burden of comorbid illness. Receiver operator curves (ROC) and likelihood ratios were used to evaluate HEWS at ED triage as a predictor of likelihood of critical deterioration and sepsis. Results: The sample included 845 patients of whom 267 experienced a critical event. The median time to occurrence of critical event from admission was 124 hours. ROC analysis indicated that HEWS at ED triage had poor discriminative ability for predicting likelihood of experiencing a critical event 0.63 [95%CI: 0.58-0.67]. HEWS had fair discriminative ability for predicting likelihood of meeting criteria for sepsis 0.75 [95%CI: 0.71-0.80], and good discriminative ability for predicting likelihood of experiencing a critical event among patients meeting criteria for sepsis 0.80 [95%CI: 0.74-0.86]. Conclusion: This retrospective study indicates that HEWS at ED triage has limited utility for identifying patients at risk of experiencing a critical event. This may be because deterioration commonly occurred days after admission. However, HEWS may have utility as tool for aiding earlier identification of critically ill septic patients. Prospective studies are needed to further delineate the utility of the HEWS in the ED.