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Potential for range expansion of mountain pine beetle into the boreal forest of North America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 April 2012

L. Safranyik ,
A.L. Carroll ,
J. Régnière ,
D.W. Langor ,
W.G. Riel ,
T.L. Shore ,
B. Peter ,
B.J. Cooke ,
V.G. Nealis  and
S.W. Taylor
L. Safranyik*
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
A.L. Carroll
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
J. Régnière
Affiliation:
Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Station Sainte-Foy, Quebec, Canada G1V 4C7
D.W. Langor
Affiliation:
Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320–122nd Street, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6H 3S5
W.G. Riel
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
T.L. Shore
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
B. Peter
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
B.J. Cooke
Affiliation:
Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320–122nd Street, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6H 3S5
V.G. Nealis
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
S.W. Taylor
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8Z 1M5
*
2 Corresponding author (e-mail: [email protected].).
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Abstract

The potential for mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), to expand its historical range in North America from west of the continental divide into the eastern boreal forest was assessed on the basis of analyses of the effects of climate and weather on brood development and survival, and key aspects of the interaction of mountain pine beetle with its hosts and associated organisms. Variation in climate suitability and high host susceptibility in the boreal forest create a finite risk of establishment and local persistence of low-level mountain pine beetle populations outside their historical range. Eventually, these populations could become widespread and cause epidemic infestations, creating an ecological pathway eastward through the boreal forest. Such infestations would reduce the commercial value of forests and impose an additional disturbance on native ecological systems.

Résumé

L'évaluation du potentiel d'expansion de l'aire historique de répartition du dendroctone du pin ponderosa, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), à partir de l'ouest de la ligne continentale de partage des eaux vers la forêt boréale de l'est est basée sur des analyses des effets du climat et des conditions météorologiques sur le développement et la survie du couvain et des aspects essentiels de l'interaction entre le dendroctone du pin ponderosa et ses hôtes et les organismes associés. La variabilité des conditions climatiques favorables et la forte vulnérabilité des hôtes dans la forêt boréale créent un risque fini d'un établissement éventuel et de la persistance de populations locales de faible densité du dendroctone du pin ponderosa hors de son aire historique de répartition. Ces populations pourraient éventuellement atteindre des répartitions étendues et causer des infestations épidémiques, en créant un passage écologique vers l'est à travers la forêt boréale. De telles infestations diminueraient la valeur commerciale des forêts et ajouteraient une perturbation supplémentaire aux systèmes écologiques indigènes.

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The Canadian Entomologist , Volume 142 , Issue 5 , October 2010 , pp. 415 - 442
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Copyright © Entomological Society of Canada 2010

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