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Insect pest complexes associated with wheat and canola crops in the Canadian Prairies Ecozone: pest risk in response to variable climates using bioclimatic models

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 July 2022

R.M. Weiss ,
M.A. Vankosky Open the ORCID record for M.A. Vankosky [Opens in a new window]  and
O. Olfert Open the ORCID record for O. Olfert [Opens in a new window]
R.M. Weiss
Affiliation:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatoon Research and Development Centre, 107 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 0X2, Canada
M.A. Vankosky*
Affiliation:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatoon Research and Development Centre, 107 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 0X2, Canada
O. Olfert
Affiliation:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatoon Research and Development Centre, 107 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, S7N 0X2, Canada
*
*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

Wheat, Triticum aestivum Linnaeus (Poaceae), and canola, Brassica napus Linnaeus (Brassicaceae), yield is at risk from insects, weeds, and pathogens. Insects must adapt to both seasonal and annual weather patterns and are known to respond to climate with changes in their distribution and relative abundance. Subsequently, risk to crop production also changes. Models that account for multiple species can serve to assess risk and address those risks proactively by monitoring, detecting, and managing insect pests. Bioclimatic models, developed individually for nine insect pests, were used to create a model to estimate risk to canola and wheat crops associated with the activity of multiple pest species. Once developed, the multiple-species model was used to analyse how crop risk responds to variation in temperature and precipitation across the prairies. For this analysis, we compared insect response and subsequent risk (a measure of the number of co-occurring pest species) to canola and wheat in current climate conditions and six incremental scenarios (warmer, cooler, drier, wetter, cooler and wetter, and warmer and drier). Results of the multiple-species model predict how pest complexes respond to climate conditions. The model will help increase risk awareness associated with insect pests.

Type
Research Paper
Information
The Canadian Entomologist , Volume 154 , Issue 1 , 2022 , e32
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Copyright
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of Canada.

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Footnotes

Subject editor: Deepa Pureswaran

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