Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-7cvxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T06:52:52.048Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Does Public Opinion Affect Trade Policy?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Daniel Y. Kono
Daniel Y. Kono*
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Although scholars have begun to explore the determinants of public attitudes toward trade policy, we still do not know whether these attitudes have policy consequences. This paper presents the first systematic analysis of this question. I find that higher public support for free trade leads to lower tariffs, but only in democracies. I also find that democracy leads to lower tariffs only where public support for free trade is relatively high. Hence, although both public opinion and regime type are important, neither matters independently of the other. This finding suggests a need for further research on the conditional effects of both.

Keywords

tradeprotectionpublic opinion
Type
Article
Information
Business and Politics , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , August 2008 , pp. 1 - 19
Copyright
Copyright © V.K. Aggarwal 2008 and published under exclusive license to Cambridge University Press 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aldrich, John H. 1993. “Rational Choice and Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (1): 246–278.Google Scholar
Baker, Andy. 2003. “Why Is Trade Reform so Popular in Latin America? A Consumption-Based Theory of Trade Policy Preferences.” World Politics 55 (3): 423–55.Google Scholar
Baker, Andy. 2005. “Who Wants to Globalize? Consumer Tastes and Labor Markets in a Theory of Trade Policy Beliefs.” American Journal of Political Science 49 (4): 924–938.Google Scholar
Bound, John, Jaeger, David A., and Baker, Regina M. 1995. “Problems with Instrumental Variables Estimation When the Correlation Between the Instruments and the Endogeneous Explanatory Variable is Weak.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 (430): 443–450.Google Scholar
Busch, Marc L. and Reinhardt, Eric. 1999. “Industrial Location and Protection: The Political and Economic Geography of U.S. Nontariff Barriers.” American Journal of Political Science 43 (4): 1028–1050.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Democracy in American States. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fording, Richard C. 1997. “The Conditional Effect of Violence as a Political Tactic: Mass Insurgency, Welfare Generosity, and Electoral Context in the American States.” American Journal of Political Science 41 (1): 1–29.Google Scholar
Frye, Timothy and Mansfield, Edward D. 2004. “Timing Is Everything: Elections and Trade Liberalization in the Postcommunist World.” Comparative Political Studies 37 (4): 371–398.Google Scholar
Gilligan, Michael J. 1997. Empowering Exporters: Reciprocity, Delegation, and Collective Action in American Trade Policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Judith L., Rivers, Douglas, and Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the Effects of the GATT and the WTO on World Trade.” International Organization 61 (1): 37–67.Google Scholar
Grogan, Colleen M. 1994. “Political-Economic Factors Influencing State Medicaid Policy.” Political Research Quarterly 47 (3): 589–623.Google Scholar
Hainmueller, Jens and Hiscox, Michael J. 2006. “Learning to Love Globalization: Education and Individual Attitudes Toward International Trade.” International Organization 60 (2): 469–498.Google Scholar
Hartley, Thomas and Russett, Bruce. 1992. “Public Opinion and the Common Defense: Who Governs Military Spending in the United States?” American Political Science Review 86 (4): 905–915.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hiscox, Michael J. 2002. “Commerce, Coalitions, and Factor Mobility: Evidence from Congressional Votes on Trade Legislation.” American Political Science Review 96 (3): 593–608.Google Scholar
Irwin, Douglas A. 1998. “Changes in U.S. Tariffs: The Role of Import Prices and Commercial Policies.” American Economic Review 88 (4): 1015–1026.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard, Blais, André, Brady, Henry, and Crête, Jean. 1993. “Free Trade in Canadian Elections: Issue Evolution in the Long and the Short Run.” In Agenda Formation, edited by Riker, William. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Kam, Cindy D. and Franzese, Robert J. 2007. Modeling and Interpreting Interactive Hypotheses in Regression Analysis: A Brief Refresher and Some Practical Advice. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Katzenstein, Peter J. 1985. Small States in World Markets: Industrial Policy in Europe. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Kono, Daniel Y. 2006. “Optimal Obfuscation: Democracy and Trade Policy Transparency.” American Political Science Review 100 (3): 369–384.Google Scholar
Leamer, Edward. 1997. “Access to Western Markets and Eastern Effort.” In Lessons from the Economic Transition: Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s, edited by Zecchini, Salvatore. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar
Magee, Stephen P., Brock, William A., and Young, Leslie. 1989. Black Hole Tariffs and Endogenous Policy Theory: Political Economy in General Equilibrium. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., Milner, Helen V. and Rosendorff, Peter. 2002. “Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements.” International Organization 56 (3): 477–514.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D. and Reinhardt, Eric. 2008. “International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade.” International Organization 62 (4): 621–652.Google Scholar
Manza, Jeff and Cook, Fay Lomax. 2002. “A Democratic Polity? Three Views of Policy Responsiveness to Public Opinion in the United States.” American Politics Research 30 (6): 630–667.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayda, Anna Maria and Rodrik, Dani. 2005. “Why Are Some People (And Countries) More Protectionist than Others? European Economic Review 49 (6): 1393–1430.Google Scholar
McGillivray, Fiona. 1997. “Party Discipline as a Determinant of the Endogenous Formation of Tariffs.” American Journal of Political Science 41 (2): 584–607.Google Scholar
Milner, Helen V. and Kubota, Keiko. 2005. “Why the Move to Free Trade? Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries.” International Organization 59 (1): 107–144.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Pryor, Frederic. 2002. “General Discussion.” In Brookings Trade Forum, edited by Collins, Susan M. and Rodrik, Dani. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Rogowski, Ronald and Kayser, Mark Andreas. 2002. “Majoritarian Electoral Systems and Consumer Power: Price-Level Evidence from the OECD Countries.” American Journal of Political Science 46 (3): 526–539.Google Scholar
Rose, Andrew K. 2004. “Do WTO Members Have More Liberal Trade Policy?” Journal of International Economics 63 (2): 209–235.Google Scholar
Schattschneider, E. E. 1935. Politics, Pressures and the Tariff: A Study of Free Private Enterprise in Pressure Politics, as Shown in the 1929-1930 Revision of the Tariff. New York: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Scheve, Kenneth F. and Slaughter, Matthew J. 2001. “What Determines Individual Trade-Policy Preferences?” Journal of International Economics 54 (2): 267–292.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Goldstein, Judith L., and Rivers, Douglas. 2007. “Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? Comment.” American Economic Review 97 (5): 2005–2018.Google Scholar