Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T21:40:52.624Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Probability models to facilitate a declaration of pest-free status, with special reference to tsetse (Diptera: Glossinidae)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 March 2007

H.J. Barclay  and
J.W. Hargrove
H.J. Barclay*
Affiliation:
Pacific Forestry Centre, 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, V8Z 1M5
J.W. Hargrove
Affiliation:
9 Monmouth Road, Avondale, Harare, Zimbabwe
*
*Fax: (250) 363 0775 E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A methodology is presented to facilitate a declaration that an area is ‘pest-free’ following an eradication campaign against an insect pest. This involves probability models to assess null trapping results and also growth models to help verify, following a waiting period, that pests were not present when control was stopped. Two probability models are developed to calculate the probability of negative trapping results if in fact insects were present. If this probability is sufficiently low, then the hypothesis that insects are present is rejected. The models depend on knowledge of the efficiency and the area of attractiveness of the traps. To verify the results of the probability model, a waiting period is required to see if a rebound occurs. If an incipient but non-detectable population remains after control measures are discontinued, then a rebound should occur. Using a growth model, the rate of increase of an insect population is examined starting from one gravid female or one male and a female. An example is given for tsetse in which both means and confidence limits are calculated for a period of 24 reproductive periods after control is terminated. If no rebound is detected, then a declaration of eradication can be made.

Type
Research Article
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 95 , Issue 1 , February 2005 , pp. 1 - 11
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2005

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Baker, R.D. (1992) Modelling trypanosomiasis prevalence and periodic epidemics and epizootics. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology 9, 269–287.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Barclay, H.J. (1996) Modelling selection for resistance to methods of insect pest control in combination. Population Ecology 38, 75–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartos, D.L. & Schmitz, R.F. (1998) Characteristics of endemic-level mountain pine beetle populations in south-central Wyoming. USDA, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Research paper: RMRS-RP-13, Ogden, Utah, USA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiang, C.L. (1968) Introduction to stochastic processes in biostatistics New York, John Wiley.Google Scholar
Clearwater, J.R., Foster, S.P., Muggleston, S.J., Dugdale, J.S. & Priesner, E. (1991) Intraspecific variation and interspecific differences in sex pheromones of sibling species in Ctenopseustis obliquana complex. Journal of Chemical Ecology 17, 413–429.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clift, A.D. & Meats, A.W. (1997) Using the negative binomial distribution and risk management software to simulate Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Diptera: Tephritidae) metapopulations in an eradication context. Proceedings Modsim 97, 792–795.Google Scholar
Delafosse, A., Bengaly, Z. & Duvallet, G. (1996) Use of Trypanosoma antigen detection ELISA during an epidemiological survey in the Sideradougou area, Burkina Faso. Revue d'Élevage et de Médecine Vétérinaire des Pays Tropicaux 49, 32–37.Google Scholar
Food and Agriculture Organization (1996) Requirements for the establishment of pest free areas. International Standards for phytosanitary measures, Publication no. 4, Secretariat of the International Plant Protection Convention, FAO, UN, Rome.Google Scholar
Food and Agriculture Organization (1999) Determination of pest status in an area. International Standards for phytosanitary measures. Publication no. 8, Secretariat of the International Plant Protection Convention, FAO, UN, Rome.Google Scholar
Hargrove, J.W. (1981) Discrepancies between estimates of tsetse fly populations using mark–recapture and removal trapping techniques. Journal of Applied Ecology 18, 737–748.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hargrove, J.W. (1988) Tsetse: the limits to population growth. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 2, 203–217.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hargrove, J.W. (1994) Reproductive rates of tsetse flies in the field in Zimbabwe. Physiological Entomology 19, 307–318.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hargrove, J.W. (2003) Tsetse eradication: sufficiency, necessity and desirability. 133 +ix pp. DFID Animal Health Programme, Edinburgh, UK.Google Scholar
Hargrove, J.W. & Borland, C.H. (1994) Pooled population parameter estimates from mark–recapture data. Biometrics 50, 1129–1141.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Humble, L. (2001) Invasive bark and wood-boring beetles in British Columbia, Canada pp. 69–77, in Alfaro, R.I., Day, K.R., Salom, S.M., Nair, K.S.S., Evans, H., Liebold, A.M., Lieutier, F., Wagner, M., Futai, K. & Suzuki, K. (Eds) Protection of world forests: advances in research. Proceedings of the 21st IUFRO World Congress7–12 August 2000Kuala LampurMalaysia IUFRO Secretariat, Vienna IUFRO World Series Vol. 11, 253 pp.Google Scholar
Iwahashi, O. (1977) Eradication of the melon fly, Dacus cucurbitae, from Kume Is., Okinawa with the sterile insect release method. Researches on Population Ecology 19, 87–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keyfitz, N. (1968) Introduction to the mathematics of population. Reading, Massachusetts, Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Koyama, J., Teruya, T. & Tanaka, K. (1984) Eradication of the oriental fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) from the Okinawa Islands by a male annihilation method. Journal of Economic Entomology 77, 468–472.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krafsur, E.S. (1998) Sterile insect technique for suppressing and eradicating insect population: 55 years and counting. Journal of Agricultural Entomology 15, 303–317.Google Scholar
Kuno, E. (1978) On the assessment of low rate of pest infestation based on successive zero samples. Japanese Journal of Applied Entomology and Zoology 22, 45–46 (in Japanese).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuno, E. (1991) Verifying zero-infestation in pest control: a simple sequential test based on the succession of zero-samples. Researches on Population Ecology 33, 29–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, W.C. (1980) Verification of the absence of the oriental fruit and melon fruit fly following an eradication program in the Mariana Islands. Proceedings of the Hawaiian Entomological Society 23, 239–243.Google Scholar
Morris, K.R.S. & Morris, M.G. (1949) The use of traps against tse-tse in West Africa. Bulletin of Entomological Research 39, 491–528.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muhigwa, J.B.B., Saini, R.K. & Hassanali, A. (1998) Effects of fly abundance on catch index of traps for Glossina fuscipes fuscipes (Diptera: Glossinidae). Journal of Medical Entomology 35, 148–152.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Muirhead-Thomson, R.C. (1968) Ecology of insect vector populations. London, Academic Press.Google Scholar
Nash, T.A.M. (1960) A review of the African trypanosomiasis problem. Tropical Disease Bulletin 57, 973–1003.Google ScholarPubMed
Parzen, E. (1960) Modern probability theory and its applications. New York, Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phelps, R.J. & Burrows, P.M. (1969a) Puparial duration in Glossina morsitans orientalis under conditions of constant temperature. Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata 12, 33–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phelps, R.J. & Burrows, P.M. (1969b) Prediction of the puparial duration in Glossina morsitans orientalis Vanderplank under field conditions. Journal of Applied Ecology 6, 323–337.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phelps, R.J. & Vale, G.A. (1978) Studies on populations of Glossina morsitans morsitans and G. pallidipes (Diptera: Glossinidae). Journal of Applied Ecology 15, 743–760.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pielou, E.C. (1969) An introduction to mathematical ecology. New York, Wiley.Google Scholar
Pilson, R.D. & Pilson, B.M. (1967) Behaviour studies of Glossina morsitans in the field. Bulletin of Entomological Research 57, 227–257.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Richards, M.S. & Tarry, D.W. (1992) Has the warble fly problem gone away? pp. 148–156 in Tenth Anniversary Proceedings of the Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine1–3 April 1992University of Edinburgh.Google Scholar
Rogers, D.J. (1988) A general model for the African trypanosomiases. Parasitology 97, 193–212.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schwarz, P.A.J., Liedo, J.P. & Hendrichs, J.P. (1989) Current programme in Mexico pp.375–386 (vol. 3) in Robinson, A.S. & Hooper, G. (Eds) Fruit flies: their biology, natural enemies and control. Amsterdam, Elsevier.Google Scholar
Seber, G.A.F. (1982) The estimation of animal abundance and related parameters. 654 pp. London, Charles Griffin & Co.Google Scholar
Solow, A.R. (1993a) Inferring extinction from sighting data. Ecology 74, 962–964.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, A.R. (1993b) Inferring extinction in a declining population. Journal of Mathematical Biology 32, 79–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sproule, A.N., Broughton, S. & Monzu, N. (Eds) (1992) Queensland fruit fly eradication campaign. 216 pp. Report of Department of Agriculture, Perth, Western Australia.Google Scholar
Steiner, L.F., Hart, W.G., Harris, E.J., Cunningham, R.T., Ohinata, K. & Kamakahi, D.C. (1970) Eradication of the oriental fruit fly from the Mariana Islands by the methods of male annihilation and sterile insect release. Journal of Economic Entromology 63, 131–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taze, Y. & Gruvel, J. (1978) Elimination des glossines et trypanosomose animal: resultants de quelques sondage dans la region du lac Tchad. Revue d'Élevage et de Médicine Vétérinaire des Pays Tropicaux 31, 63–67.Google Scholar
Thompson, S.K. (2002) Sampling 2nd edn. 367 pp. New York: John Wiley.Google ScholarPubMed
Vale, G.A. (1971) Artificial refuges for tsetse flies (Glossina spp.). Bulletin of Entomological Research 61, 331–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vale, G.A. (1974a) New field methods for studying the responses of tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) to hosts. Bulletin of Entomological Research 64, 199–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vale, G.A. (1974b) The responses of tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) to mobile and stationary baits. Bulletin of Entomological Research 64, 545–588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vreysen, M.J.B., Saleh, K.M., Ali, M.Y., Abdulla, A.M., Zhu, Z.-R., Juma, K.G., Dyck, V.A., Msangi, A.R., Mkonyi, P.A. & Feldmann, H.U. (2000) Glossina austeni (Diptera: Glossinidae) eradicated on the island of Unguja, Zanzibar, using the sterile insect technique. Journal of Economic Entomology 93, 123–135.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Whittle, C.P., Bellas, T.E. & Bishop, A.L. (1991) Sex pheromone of lucerne leafroller, Merophyas divulsana (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae): evidence for two distinct populations. Journal of Chemical Ecology 17, 1883–1895.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wyss, J.H. (2001) Screwworm eradication in the Americas. 15th Conference of the OIE Regional Commission for the AmericasCartagena (Colombia)7–10 March 2000. Comprehensive reports on technical items presented to the International Committee or to Regional Commissions, pp. 239–244.Google Scholar
Yamamura, K. & Sugimoto, T. (1995) Estimation of the pest prevention ability of the import plant quarantine in Japan. Biometrics 51, 482–490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yamamura, K. & Katsumata, H. (1999) Estimation of the probability of insect introduction through imported commodities. Researches on Population Ecology 41, 275–282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar