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Areas of potential suitability and survival of Dendroctonus valens in china under extreme climate warming scenario

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 April 2015

S.Y. He ,
X.Z. Ge ,
T. Wang ,
J.B. Wen  and
S.X. Zong
S.Y. He
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, People's Republic of China
X.Z. Ge
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, People's Republic of China
T. Wang
Affiliation:
Mentougou Forestry Station, Beijing 102300, People's Republic of China
J.B. Wen
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, People's Republic of China
S.X. Zong*
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, People's Republic of China
*
*Author for correspondence Fax: +86-10-62336302 E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with warming estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971–2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-warming scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010–2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of extreme climate warming and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.

Keywords

climate warmingCLIMEX3.0Dendroctonus valensdistributionhistorical climate
Type
Research Papers
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , Volume 105 , Issue 4 , August 2015 , pp. 477 - 484
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Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2015 

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