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Adapting distribution patterns of desert locusts, Schistocerca gregaria in response to global climate change

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 January 2025

Xiao Chang Open the ORCID record for Xiao Chang [Opens in a new window] ,
Shiqian Feng ,
Farman Ullah ,
Yuan Zhang ,
Yu Zhang ,
Yujia Qin ,
John Huria Nderitu ,
Yingying Dong ,
Wenjiang Huang  and
Zehua Zhang
...Show all authors
Xiao Chang
Affiliation:
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
Shiqian Feng
Affiliation:
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
Farman Ullah
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
Yuan Zhang
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
Yu Zhang
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
Yujia Qin
Affiliation:
Department of Plant Biosecurity, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
John Huria Nderitu
Affiliation:
Mount Kenya University, Thika 342-01000, Kenya
Yingying Dong
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, P.R. China
Wenjiang Huang
Affiliation:
Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, P.R. China
Zehua Zhang
Affiliation:
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
Xiongbing Tu*
Affiliation:
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, P.R. China
*
Corresponding author: Xiongbing Tu; Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

The desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) is a destructive migratory pest, posing great threat to over 60 countries globally. In the backdrop of climate change, the habitat suitability of desert locusts is poised to undergo alterations. Hence, investigating the shifting dynamics of desert locust habitats holds profound significance in ensuring global agricultural resilience and food security. In this study, we combined the maximum entropy modelling and geographic information system technology to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns and habitat adaptability of desert locusts. The results indicate that the suitable areas for desert locusts (0.2976 × 108 km2) are concentrated in northern Africa and southwestern Asia, accounting for 19.97% of the total global land area. Key environmental variables affecting the desert locust distribution include temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, average temperature of February, and precipitation of the driest month. Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 climate scenarios, potential suitable areas for desert locusts are estimated to increase from 2030 (2021–2040) to 2090 (2081–2100). By 2090, highly suitable areas for SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 are projected to be 0.0606 × 108 and 0.0891 × 108 km2, respectively, reflecting an expansion of 1.84 and 2.77% compared to existing ones. These research findings provide a theoretical basis for adopting prevention and control strategies for desert locusts.

Keywords

climate changedesert locustenvironmental variablesMaxEntpotential suitable areas
Type
Research Paper
Information
Bulletin of Entomological Research , First View , pp. 1 - 9
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Copyright
Copyright © Xiongbing Tu, 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press

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Footnotes

*

These authors contributed equally to this study.

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