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What was the Profit in Following the Crowd? The Effectiveness of Party Strategies on Immigration and Devolution

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2009

W. L. Miller
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Extract

‘The public does respond to candidates who offer a choice rather than an echo. But unfortunately for the candidate who offers the choice, the public seems to choose the echo.’ So concluded Nie, Verba and Petrocik when they studied electoral strategy in the United States. Goldwater and McGovern broke the consensus but paid a heavy price for introducing issues into American politics.

Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 10 , Issue 1 , January 1980 , pp. 15 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1980

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References

1 Nie, N. H., Verba, S. and Petrocik, J. R., The Changing American Voter (London: Harvard University Press, 1976), p. 319.Google Scholar

2 Nie, , Verba, and Petrocik, , The Changing American Voter, pp. 334–5.Google Scholar

3 Downs, A., An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper and Row, 1957).Google Scholar

4 See Blondel, J., Political Parties: A Genuine Case for Discontent? (London: Wildwood House, 1978), pp. 99–103 and p. 227Google Scholar for a recent restatement of this view.

5 Downs, , An Economic Theory of Democracy, p. 297.Google Scholar

6 Downs, , An Economic Theory of Democracy, p. 115.Google Scholar

7 Downs, , An Economic Theory of Democracy, pp. 140–1.Google Scholar

8 See Rose, R., Politics in England Today (London: Faber, 1975), p. 289Google Scholar for an interesting table on agreement between British elites in contradiction to the views of their supporters.

9 See Butler, D. and Stokes, D., Political Change in Britain, 2nd edn. (London: Macmillan, 1974).CrossRefGoogle Scholar

10 See Miller, W. L. with Särlvik, B., Crewe, I. and Alt, J., ‘The Connection between SNP Voting and the Demand for Scottish Self-government’, European Journal of Political Research, V (1977). 83–102.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

11 See Nie, et al. , The Changing American Voter, pp. 332–3Google Scholar, for example.

12 Butler, and Stokes, , Political Change in Britain, p. 42.Google Scholar

13 Butler, and Stokes, , Political Change in Britain, p. 307.Google Scholar

14 Studies which show a tendency for respondents to bring their memories into line with their current party preferences include Benewick, R. J., Birch, A. H., Blumler, J. G. and Ewbank, A., ‘The Floating Voter and the Liberal View of Representation’, Political Studies, XVII (1969), 177–195CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Himmelweit, H. T., Biberian, M. J. and Stockdale, J., ‘Memory of Past Vote: Implications of a Study of Bias in Recall’, British Journal Political Science, viii (1978), 365–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

15 Butler, David and various colleagues, The British General Election of 19– (London: Macmillan)Google Scholar, published after each election since 1950.

16 These allegations were made in the House of Commons on 4 July 1977 by Harry Ewing and Margaret Bain. See, for example, the next day's Scotsman.

17 Butler, and Stokes, , Political Change in Britain, pp. 307–8.Google Scholar

18 Quotations are from the transcript.

19 This quotation is from a proposition recommended by the executive to the Dalintober Street Conference 17 and 18 August 1974. The executive itself also drafted a pro-devolution proposition but did not recommend it unless the anti-devolution proposition was defeated.

20 The Economist, 8 10 1977.Google Scholar

21 Butler, and Stokes, , Political Change in Britain, pp. 306–8.Google Scholar

22 I am grateful to Mr Powell for a copy of his Coventry speech (18 February 1977) outlining this view. See The Times, 20 02 1977Google Scholar for a partial text: ‘In 1970 I was myself deceived and thereby helped to deceive others as to the seriousness and sincerity of the intentions of the Conservative Party in regard to New Commonwealth immigration.’

23 Compare the time series on respondents’ policy preferences with that on their party perceptions: see Butler, and Stokes, , Political Change in Britain, pp. 461–2.Google Scholar

24 Using an entirely different methodology based on multiple regression analyses of socio-economic patterns of voting rather than voting change, D. Studlar also concludes that immigration was worth 4·1 per cent to the Conservatives in 1966 and 6·7 per cent in 1970, i.e. a swing of 1·3 per cent. See Studlar, D., ‘Policy Voting in Britain: The Coloured Immigration Issue in the 1964, 1966 and 1970 General Elections’, American Political Science Review, LXXII (1978), 46–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

25 The comments by M. Steed, in his presidential address to the Liberal Assembly, are misplaced. He claimed that ‘it is a shorter step from inciting Scots to blame all ills on the English to inciting white British to blame all ills on black or brown British than the SNP realizes’ (repeated in Steed, 's letter to the Scotsman, 26 09 1978).Google Scholar

26 See letter by Sillars, Jim, Scotsman, 4 11 1978.Google Scholar

27 See, for example, Inglehart, R. and Sidjanski, D., ‘The Left, the Right, the Establishment and the Swiss Electorate’, in Budge, I., Crewe, I. and Farlie, D., eds., Party Identification and Beyond (London: John Wiley, 1976), pp. 225–42.Google Scholar

28 See, for example, Nie, , Verba, and Petrocik, , The Changing American Voter, p. 324Google Scholar and throughout. Sartori'ss concern for comprehensive analysis leads him to suggest, erroneously, that Downs's model can only be applied to an ideological or ‘image’ dimension. See Sartori, G., Parties and Party Systems (London: Cambridge University Press, 1976), Chap. 10.Google Scholar

29 See Butler, D. and Kavanagh, D., The British General Election of February 1974 (London: Macmillan, 1974), pp. 103–5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

30 See Steed, M. in Butler, and Kavanagh, , The British General Election of February 1974, p. 332.Google Scholar

31 Compare the table on p. 140 of the February election study with that on p. 80 of the October election study, both by Butler and Kavanagh (London: Macmillan, 1974 and 1975).

32 World in Action, Granada Television, 30 January 1978, reported in the press from 31 January onwards. The quotation is from the Scotsman report.

33 Scotsman, 31 01 1978.Google Scholar

34 See Gallup Index or reports in Daily Telegraph.

35 Available through Strathclyde Gallup Information Service, Social Statistics Laboratory, Strathclyde University.

36 ‘Now the interesting thing is that we are in 1978 now. Some of them, therefore, will have been here for five years whether they are going to be given the right to permanent settlement or not’ (Mrs Thatcher on World in Action reported by Scotsman, 31 01 1978).Google Scholar

37 Coventry speech, text from Mr Powell.

38 See, for example, Mueller, J. E., War, Presidents and Public Opinion (New York: Wiley, 1973) especially pp. 60–1Google Scholar where the logarithm of the number of casualties is used to predict monthly support for war, and p. 221 where the unemployment rate is used similarly.

39 Our Changing Democracy (London: HMSO, Cmnd. 6348, 1975).Google Scholar

40 On attitudes towards bringing British troops back from Northern Ireland the parties agree to differ from the electorate, but Irish matters remain surprisingly peripheral to British politics. See Rose, R., McAllister, I. and Mair, P., Is There a Concurring Majority about Northern Ireland? (Glasgow: Strathclyde CSPP Paper No. 22, 1978).Google Scholar