Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-19T13:38:38.013Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Strategic Origins of Electoral Authoritarianism

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 September 2017

Michael K. Miller
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Why do autocrats hold multiparty elections? This article argues that transitions to electoral authoritarianism (EA) follow a strategic calculus in which autocrats balance international incentives to adopt elections against the costs and risks of controlling them. It tests this hypothesis with a multinomial logit model that simultaneously predicts transitions to EA and democracy, using a sample of non-electoral autocracies from 1946–2010. It finds that pro-democratic international leverage – captured by dependence on democracies through trade ties, military alliances, international governmental organizations and aid – predicts EA adoption. Socio-economic factors that make voters easier to control, such as low average income and high inequality, also predict EA transition. In contrast, since democratization entails a loss of power for autocrats, it is mainly predicted by regime weakness rather than international engagement or socio-economic factors. The results demonstrate that different forms of liberalization follow distinct logics, providing insight into autocratic regime dynamics and democracy promotion’s unintended effects.

Keywords

electoral authoritarianismdemocratizationautocracydiffusion
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 50 , Issue 1 , January 2020 , pp. 17 - 44
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, George Washington University (email: [email protected]). Thanks to Keith Dowding, Margaret Levi, Joseph Wright, Valerie Bunce, Milan Svolik, John Ishiyama, participants at the University of Sydney, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, and Midwest 2014, Editor René Lindstädt and three anonymous referees for their helpful comments. Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://dx.doi.org/doi:10.7910/DVN/PTMJF0, and an online appendix at: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123417000394.

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
AidData. 2012. AidData Research Release 2.1. Available from aiddata.org/aiddata-research-releases. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Albertus, Michael, and Menaldo, Victor. 2012. Coercive Capacity and the Prospects for Democratization. Comparative Politics 44 (2):151–169.Google Scholar
Ambrosio, Thomas. 2010. Constructing a Framework of Authoritarian Diffusion: Concepts, Dynamics, and Future Research. International Studies Perspectives 11:375–392.Google Scholar
Bader, Julia. 2015. China, Autocratic Patron? An Empirical Investigation of China as a Factor in Autocratic Survival. International Studies Quarterly 59 (1):23–33.Google Scholar
Banks, Arthur S. 1976. Cross-National Time Series, 1815–1973 . Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.Google Scholar
Barbieri, Katherine, and Keshk, Omar. 2012. Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set Codebook, Version 3.0. Available from www.correlatesofwar.org. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Barro, Robert J., and Lee, Jong-Wha. 2001. International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications. Oxford Economic Papers 53:541–563.Google Scholar
Blaydes, Lisa. 2011. Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak’s Egypt. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles, Miller, Michael K., and Rosato, Sebastian. 2013. A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, 1800–2007. Comparative Political Studies 46 (12):1523–1554.Google Scholar
Bratton, Michael, and van de Walle, Nicolas. 1997. Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brinks, Daniel, and Coppedge, Michael. 2006. Diffusion is No Illusion. Comparative Political Studies 39 (4):463–489.Google Scholar
Brown, Stephen. 2001. Authoritarian Leaders and Multiparty Elections in Africa: How Foreign Donors Help to Keep Kenya’s Daniel Arap Moi in Power. Third World Quarterly 22 (5):725–739.Google Scholar
Brown, Stephen. 2011. ‘Well, What Can You Expect?’: Donor Officials’ Apologetics for Hybrid Regimes in Africa. Democratization 18 (2):512–534.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Smith, Alastair. 2007. Foreign Aid and Policy Concessions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (2):251–284.Google Scholar
Bush, Sarah Sunn. 2015. The Taming of Democracy Assistance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cao, Xun, Greenhill, Brian, and Prakash, Aseem. 2013. Where is the Tipping Point? Bilateral Trade and the Diffusion of Human Rights. British Journal of Political Science 43:133–156.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 1999. Aiding Democracy Abroad: The Learning Curve. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Carothers, Thomas. 2002. The End of the Transition Paradigm. Journal of Democracy 13:5–21.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José Antonio, Gandhi, Jennifer, and Vreeland, James Raymond. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143:67–101.Google Scholar
Clottey, Peter. 2015. Swaziland Pro-Democracy Group Rejects King’s Criticisms. Voice of America News, 21 February.Google Scholar
Correlates of War Project. 2010a. International Governmental Organization (IGO) Data, Version 2.3. Available from www.correlatesofwar.org. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Correlates of War Project. 2010b. National Material Capabilities Dataset, Version 4.0. Available from www.correlatesofwar.org. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Correlates of War Project. 2013. Formal Interstate Alliance Dataset, Version 4.1. Available from www.correlatesofwar.org. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Coulon, Christian. 1988. Senegal: The Development and Fragility of Semidemocracy. In Democracy in Developing Countries: Africa , edited by Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz and Seymour Martin Lipset, 141–178. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 1999. Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Diamond, Larry. 2002. Thinking About Hybrid Regimes. Journal of Democracy 13 (2):21–35.Google Scholar
Dietrich, Simone, and Wright, Joseph. 2015. Foreign Aid Allocation Tactics and Democratic Change in Africa. Journal of Politics 77 (1):216–234.Google Scholar
Dobson, William J. 2012. The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Donno, Daniela. 2013. Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes. American Journal of Political Science 57 (3):703–716.Google Scholar
Dreher, Axel, Gaston, Noel, and Martens, Pim. 2008. Measuring Globalisation—Gauging its Consequences . New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Epstein, David L., Bates, Robert, Goldstone, Jack, Kristensen, Ida, and O’Halloran, Sharyn. 2006. Democratic Transitions. American Journal of Political Science 50 (3):551–569.Google Scholar
Ethier, Diane. 2003. Is Democracy Promotion Effective? Comparing Conditionality and Incentives. Democratization 10 (1):99–120.Google Scholar
Finkel, Steven E., Pérez-Liñán, Aníbal, and Seligson, Mitchell A.. 2007. The Effects of U.S. Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2003. World Politics 59 (3):404–439.Google Scholar
Flores-Macías, Gustavo A., and Kreps, Sarah E.. 2013. The Foreign Policy Consequences of Trade: China’s Commercial Relations with Africa and Latin America, 1992–2006. Journal of Politics 75 (2):357–371.Google Scholar
Freedom House. 2013. Freedom in the World 2013: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Galbraith, James K., and Kum, Hyunsub. 2003. Inequality and Economic Growth: A Global View Based on Measures of Pay. CESifo Economic Studies 49 (4):527–556.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer. 2008. Political Institutions Under Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2009. Elections Under Authoritarianism. Annual Review of Political Science 12:403–422.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science 2:115–144.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, and Zaller, John. 1989. Sources of Popular Support for Authoritarian Regimes. American Journal of Political Science 33 (2):319–347.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara, Wright, Joseph, and Frantz, Erica. 2014. Authoritarian Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set. Perspectives on Politics 12 (2):313–331.Google Scholar
Geisler, Gisela. 1993. Fair? What Has Fairness Got To Do With It? Vagaries of Election Observations and Democratic Standards. Journal of Modern African Studies 31 (4):613–637.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Kristian S., and Ward, Michael D.. 2006. Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization. International Organization 60:911–933.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein E., Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2016. Archigos: A Data Set on Leaders, 1875–2015, Version 4.1. Department of Political Science, University of Rochester. Accessed 1 June 2016.Google Scholar
Goldsmith, Arthur A. 2008. Making the World Safe for Partial Democracy? Questioning the Premises of Democracy Promotion. International Security 33 (2):120–147.Google Scholar
Goodliffe, Jay, and Hawkins, Darren. 2017. Dependence Networks and the Diffusion of Domestic Political Institutions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (4):903–929.Google Scholar
Greene, Kenneth F. 2007. Why Dominant Parties Lose: Mexico’s Democratization in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Haber, Stephen, and Menaldo, Victor. 2011. Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? A Reappraisal of the Resource Curse. American Political Science Review 105 (1):1–26.Google Scholar
Hackenesch, Christine. 2015. It’s Domestic Politics, Stupid! EU Democracy Promotion Strategies Meet African Dominant Party Regimes. World Development 75:85–96.Google Scholar
Hadenius, Axel. 1992. Democracy and Development. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hannan, Michael T., and Carroll, Glenn R.. 1981. Dynamics of Formal Political Structure: An Event-History Analysis. American Sociological Review 46 (1):19–35.Google Scholar
Hanson, Jonathan K., and Sigman, Rachel. 2013. Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring State Capacity for Comparative Political Research. Working paper. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Hermet, Guy. 1978. State-Controlled Elections: A Framework. In Elections Without Choice, edited by Guy Hermet, Richard Rose and Alain Rouquié, 1–18. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, and Aten, Bettina. 2011. Penn World Table, Version 7.0. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia. Available from pwt.econ.upenn.edu. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Hicken, Allen. 2011. Clientelism. Annual Review of Political Science 14:289–310.Google Scholar
Hoffman, Barak, and Robinson, Lindsay. 2009. Tanzania’s Missing Opposition. Journal of Democracy 20 (4):123–136.Google Scholar
Howard, Marc M., and Roessler, Philip G.. 2006. Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes. American Journal of Political Science 50 (2):365–381.Google Scholar
Hyde, Susan D., and Marinov, Nikolay. 2012. Which Elections Can be Lost? Political Analysis 20 (2):191–210.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Welzel, Christian. 2005. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Joseph, Richard. 1999. The Reconfiguration of Power in Late Twentieth-Century Africa. In State, Conflict, and Democracy in Africa, edited by Richard Joseph, 57–80. Boulder, CO: Lynne Reiner.Google Scholar
Kinne, Brandon J., and Marinov, Nikolay. 2013. Electoral Authoritarianism and Credible Signaling in International Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57 (3):359–386.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert, and Wilkinson, Steven I., eds. 2007. Patrons, Clients and Policies: Patterns of Democratic Accountability and Political Competition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Knack, Stephen. 2004. Does Foreign Aid Promote Democracy? International Studies Quarterly 48 (1):251–266.Google Scholar
Leong, Ho Khai. 2000. The Politics of Policy-Making in Singapore. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan A.. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lindberg, Staffan I., ed. 2009. Democratization by Elections: A New Mode of Transition. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lizzeri, L., and Persico, N.. 2004. Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy and the Scope of Government With an Application to Britain’s Age of Reform. Quarterly Journal of Economics 119 (2):705–763.Google Scholar
Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2006. Elections Under Authoritarianism: Preliminary Lessons From Jordan. Democratization 13 (3):456–471.Google Scholar
McKoy, Michael K., and Miller, Michael K.. 2012. The Patron’s Dilemma: The Dynamics of Foreign-Supported Democratization. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56 (5):904–932.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., Milner, Helen V., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2000. Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade. American Political Science Review 94 (2):305–321.Google Scholar
Marinov, Nikolay, and Goemans, Hein. 2014. Coups and Democracy. British Journal of Political Science 44 (4):799–825.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G. 2010. Major Episodes of Political Violence (MEPV) and Conflict Regions, 1946–2008. Center for Systemic Peace. Available from www.systemicpeace.org. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., and Jaggers, Keith. 2010. POLITY IV PROJECT: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2009 . Fairfax, VA: George Mason University.Google Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2012. Economic Development, Violent Leader Removal, and Democratization. American Journal of Political Science 56 (4):1002–1020.Google Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2015a. Democratic Pieces: Autocratic Elections and Democratic Development Since 1815. British Journal of Political Science 45 (3):501–530.Google Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2015b. Electoral Authoritarianism and Human Development. Comparative Political Studies 48 (12):1526–1562.Google Scholar
Miller, Michael K. 2017. Replication Data for: The Strategic Origins of Electoral Authoritarianism. doi: 10.7910/DVN/PTMJF0, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:s8ukiAT2UYW61Fyrg2TD1w==.Google Scholar
Neumayer, Eric, and Plümper, Thomas. 2016. W. Political Science Research and Methods 4 (1):175–193.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa. 2008. Democracy Time-Series Dataset. Available from http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/pnorris/Data/Data.htm. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon. 2002. Democracy From the Outside In? International Organizations and Democratization. International Organization 56 (3):515–549.Google Scholar
Pevehouse, Jon C., Nordstrom, Timothy, and Warnke, Kevin. 2004. The COW-2 International Organizations Dataset, Version 2.0. Conflict Management and Peace Science 21 (2):101–119.Google Scholar
Pfutze, Tobias. 2014. Clientelism Versus Social Learning: The Electoral Effects of International Migration. International Studies Quarterly 58 (2):295–307.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam, Alvarez, Michael E., Cheibub, José A., and Limongi, Fernando. 2000. Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990 . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Reilly, Benjamin. 2013. Southeast Asia: In the shadow of China. Journal of Democracy 24 (1):156–164.Google Scholar
Roeder, Philip G. 2001. Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985. Available from weber.ucsd.edu/~proeder/elf.htm. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Sadiki, Larbi. 2000. Popular Uprisings and Arab Democratization. International Journal of Middle East Studies 32 (1):71–95.Google Scholar
Sanborn, Howard, and Thyne, Clayton L.. 2014. Learning Democracy: Education and the Fall of Authoritarian Regimes. British Journal of Political Science 44 (4):773–797.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas, ed. 2006. Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2013. The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A., Dobbin, Frank, and Garrett, Geoffrey. 2006. Introduction: The International Diffusion of Liberalism. International Organization 60:781–810.Google Scholar
Starr, Harvey. 1991. Democratic Dominoes: Diffusion Approaches to the Spread of Democracy in the International System. Journal of Conflict Resolution 35:356–381.Google Scholar
Stokes, Susan C. 2005. Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics With Evidence From Argentina. American Political Science Review 99 (3):315–325.Google Scholar
Stokes, Susan C., Dunning, Thad, Nazareno, Marcelo, and Brusco, Valeria. 2013. Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tansey, Oisín, Koehler, Kevin, and Schmotz, Alexander. Forthcoming. Ties to the Rest: Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival. Comparative Political Studies.Google Scholar
Torfason, Magnus Thor, and Ingram, Paul. 2010. The Global Rise of Democracy: A Network Account. American Sociological Review 75 (3):355–377.Google Scholar
Treisman, Daniel. 2015. Income, Democracy, and Leader Turnover. American Journal of Political Science 59 (4):927–942.Google Scholar
United Nations University–World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). 2005. World Income Inequality Database, Version 2.0a. Available from www.wider.unu.edu. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Waisman, Carlos H. 1989. Argentina: Autarkic Industrialization and Illegitimacy. In Democracy in Developing Countries, Volume 4: Latin America , edited by Larry Diamond, Juan J. Linz, and Seymour M. Lipset, 59–109. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Wang, Chin-Shou, and Kurzman, Charles. 2007. Logistics: How to Buy Votes. In Elections for Sale: The Causes and Consequences of Vote Buying, edited by Frederic Charles Schaffer, 61–79. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Waterbury, John. 1983. The Egypt of Nasser and Sadat: The Political Economy of Two Regimes. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Weghorst, Keith R., and Lindberg, Staffan I.. 2013. What Drives the Swing Voter in Africa? American Journal of Political Science 57 (3):717–734.Google Scholar
Whitehead, Laurence. 1996. Democratic Regions, Ostracism, and Pariahs. In The International Dimensions of Democratization, edited by Laurence Whitehead, 395–412. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2014. World Development Indicators Online. Available from www.worldbank.org/data. Accessed 1 June 2015.Google Scholar
Wright, Joseph, and Escribà-Folch, Abel. 2012. Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Autocracy. British Journal of Political Science 42 (2):283–309.Google Scholar
Young, Crawford. 1999. The Third Wave of Democratization in Africa: Ambiguities and Contracitions. In State, Conflict, and Democracy in Africa, edited by Richard Joseph, 15–38. Boulder, CO: Lynne Reiner.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Miller Dataset

Dataset

https://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PTMJF0
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Miller supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Miller supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 144.5 KB